Good Question !

In my opinion the answer is probably yes. The Pattern which began
establishing itself at the turn of the month over the Pacific is now
establishing itself over the Atlantic Sector. The pattern is evolving a
much less blocked state, which will result in a much shorter wavelength
affecting the UK. At the same time 500mb heights north of 65N remain
positive and likely to remain so into next week and beyond.

The Pacific Jet has been quite zonal and the flow over N America has become
much less meridional, which in turn tends to lead to much less trough
extension over the Western Atlantic and less push of warm advection and thus
the creation of high pressure over the UK tends to be much reduced in these
situations.

The current slow moving block to the NW of the UK is elongating now and will
sweep east to allow the more zonal flow nr 50N to move across the UK over
the weekend and remain there into next week. The airmass over the UK is
quite cold at the moment (-2C in Scotland this morning ) and the Castor Bay
00Z Ascent had 530.1 DAM which is pretty chilly for nearly Mid June.

The EPS from the ECMWF and the GFS both indicate conditions remaining
unsettled towards Month end with the N Hemisphere flow showing litle sign of
buckling and remaining in a more zonal flow over the Pacific into Canada
with downstream inplications to the UK and Atlantic Sector.

So stating unsettled and cool for the rest of June, yes at the moment I see
very little change and we need to see a funamental shift in N Hemisphere
wavelength and a fall in 500mb polar heights to see any real change over
theUK.

Paul

On Jun 10, 8:27*am, "PJB" wrote:
Good Question !

In my opinion the answer is probably yes. *The Pattern which began
establishing itself at the turn of the month over the Pacific is now
establishing itself over the Atlantic Sector. *The pattern is evolving a
much less blocked state, which will result in a much shorter wavelength
affecting the UK. *At the same time 500mb heights north of 65N remain
positive and likely to remain so into next week and beyond.

The Pacific Jet has been quite zonal and the flow over N America has become
much less meridional, which in turn tends to lead to much less trough
extension over the Western Atlantic and less push of warm advection and thus
the creation of high pressure over the UK tends to be much reduced in these
situations.

The current slow moving block to the NW of the UK is elongating now and will
sweep east to allow the more zonal flow nr 50N to move across the UK over
the weekend and remain there into next week. The airmass over the UK is
quite cold at the moment (-2C in Scotland this morning ) and the Castor Bay
00Z Ascent had 530.1 DAM which is pretty chilly for nearly Mid June.

The EPS from the ECMWF and the GFS both indicate conditions remaining
unsettled towards Month end with the N Hemisphere flow showing litle sign of
buckling and remaining in a more zonal flow over the Pacific into Canada
with downstream inplications to the UK and Atlantic Sector.

So stating unsettled and cool for the rest of June, yes at the moment I see
very little change and we need to see a funamental shift in N Hemisphere
wavelength and a fall in 500mb polar heights to see any real change over
theUK.

Paul

I would agree about the probability. The next 10 days look unsettled,
with drier interludes for the SE. Beyond that, despite your good
analysis Paul, things can easily change. I realise you've allowed for
that by saying that we need some more meridionality in the jet and a
re-establishment of a blocked pattern, for that change to occur.

On a wider dynamic scale, if anticyclonic weather over the pole
becomes rooted, as well as the jet being likely to stay pretty flat,
thus giving us, at best, a mixed summer, we could have a new record
low ice extent - a la 2007, where synoptics were exceptional and
produced very settled conditions right through until September. But
that is persistence 3 months down the line and no-one can see that
far. *))

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html

On Jun 10, 9:12*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 10, 8:27*am, "PJB" wrote:





Good Question !

In my opinion the answer is probably yes. *The Pattern which began
establishing itself at the turn of the month over the Pacific is now
establishing itself over the Atlantic Sector. *The pattern is evolving a
much less blocked state, which will result in a much shorter wavelength
affecting the UK. *At the same time 500mb heights north of 65N remain
positive and likely to remain so into next week and beyond.

The Pacific Jet has been quite zonal and the flow over N America has become
much less meridional, which in turn tends to lead to much less trough
extension over the Western Atlantic and less push of warm advection and thus
the creation of high pressure over the UK tends to be much reduced in these
situations.

The current slow moving block to the NW of the UK is elongating now and will
sweep east to allow the more zonal flow nr 50N to move across the UK over
the weekend and remain there into next week. The airmass over the UK is
quite cold at the moment (-2C in Scotland this morning ) and the Castor Bay
00Z Ascent had 530.1 DAM which is pretty chilly for nearly Mid June.

The EPS from the ECMWF and the GFS both indicate conditions remaining
unsettled towards Month end with the N Hemisphere flow showing litle sign of
buckling and remaining in a more zonal flow over the Pacific into Canada
with downstream inplications to the UK and Atlantic Sector.

So stating unsettled and cool for the rest of June, yes at the moment I see
very little change and we need to see a funamental shift in N Hemisphere
wavelength and a fall in 500mb polar heights to see any real change over
theUK.

Paul

I would agree about the probability. The next 10 days look unsettled,
with drier interludes for the SE. Beyond that, despite your good
analysis Paul, things can easily change. I realise you've allowed for
that by saying that we need some more meridionality in the jet and a
re-establishment of a blocked pattern, for that change to occur.

On a wider dynamic scale, if anticyclonic weather over the pole
becomes rooted, as well as the jet being likely to stay pretty flat,
thus giving us, at best, a mixed summer, we could have a new record
low ice extent - a la 2007, where synoptics were exceptional and
produced very settled conditions right through until September. But
that is persistence 3 months down the line and no-one can see that
far. *))

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

In my experience the "summer monsoon" starts about now 7 years out of
10. It's well documented by Lamb and Manley-and by me, because my
birthday's June 26th, and it's wet more often than not!

On Jun 10, 7:34*pm, "Jim Smith" wrote:
To be honest, it looks utter **** for as far ahead as we can see.

Hoping that we migh get an improvement around the turn of the month a la
1997, but I do fear another 2008 is upon us.

--
Bournemouth Weather readings online:http://www.g0ofe.com/weather"PJB" wrote in message

o.uk...



Good Question !

In my opinion the answer is probably yes. *The Pattern which began
establishing itself at the turn of the month over the Pacific is now
establishing itself over the Atlantic Sector. *The pattern is evolving a
much less blocked state, which will result in a much shorter wavelength
affecting the UK. *At the same time 500mb heights north of 65N remain
positive and likely to remain so into next week and beyond.

The Pacific Jet has been quite zonal and the flow over N America has
become much less meridional, which in turn tends to lead to much less
trough extension over the Western Atlantic and less push of warm advection
and thus the creation of high pressure over the UK tends to be much
reduced in these situations.

The current slow moving block to the NW of the UK is elongating now and
will sweep east to allow the more zonal flow nr 50N to move across the UK
over the weekend and remain there into next week. The airmass over the UK
is quite cold at the moment (-2C in Scotland this morning ) and the Castor
Bay 00Z Ascent had 530.1 DAM which is pretty chilly for nearly Mid June..

The EPS from the ECMWF and the GFS both indicate conditions remaining
unsettled towards Month end with the N Hemisphere flow showing litle sign
of buckling and remaining in a more zonal flow over the Pacific into
Canada with downstream inplications to the UK and Atlantic Sector.

So stating unsettled and cool for the rest of June, yes at the moment I
see very little change and we need to see a funamental shift in N
Hemisphere wavelength and a fall in 500mb polar heights to see any real
change over theUK.

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Itslooked unsttled for the last two weeks but has actually been pretty
reasonable here.It might look unsettled ahead-but apart from a spellof
rain on sunday it could well be dry after that-thats what im
expecting in this part of the world anyway-hope im wrong as we are
desperate for rain

On Jun 10, 8:27*am, "PJB" wrote:
Good Question !

In my opinion the answer is probably yes. *The Pattern which began
establishing itself at the turn of the month over the Pacific is now
establishing itself over the Atlantic Sector. *The pattern is evolving a
much less blocked state, which will result in a much shorter wavelength
affecting the UK. *At the same time 500mb heights north of 65N remain
positive and likely to remain so into next week and beyond.

The Pacific Jet has been quite zonal and the flow over N America has become
much less meridional, which in turn tends to lead to much less trough
extension over the Western Atlantic and less push of warm advection and thus
the creation of high pressure over the UK tends to be much reduced in these
situations.

The current slow moving block to the NW of the UK is elongating now and will
sweep east to allow the more zonal flow nr 50N to move across the UK over
the weekend and remain there into next week. The airmass over the UK is
quite cold at the moment (-2C in Scotland this morning ) and the Castor Bay
00Z Ascent had 530.1 DAM which is pretty chilly for nearly Mid June.

The EPS from the ECMWF and the GFS both indicate conditions remaining
unsettled towards Month end with the N Hemisphere flow showing litle sign of
buckling and remaining in a more zonal flow over the Pacific into Canada
with downstream inplications to the UK and Atlantic Sector.

So stating unsettled and cool for the rest of June, yes at the moment I see
very little change and we need to see a funamental shift in N Hemisphere
wavelength and a fall in 500mb polar heights to see any real change over
theUK.

Paul

Paul; thanks for this analysis back on the 10th. The models had picked
up these upstream changes and were indicating exactly the weather that
we've seen. They really have been pretty spot on from their output
between 10 and 16 days ago. As my other post shows, this showers and
unsettled weather was shown in the models as early as about 3rd June
and there was agreement and consistency to show that would be the case
by mid month, as early as 5th June.