looking good for s.e, naff as usual for the n.w


Published at 10:00, 27 June

(Next update at 10:00, 4 July)

Written by Rob McElwee


Summary

Heatwave? What heatwave?

It's a hot start to the period but there is a rapid return to the norm
by the first Wednesday.

It isn't possible to forecast a heatwave more than seven days in
advance. But the pressure pattern conducive to summer heatwaves is
forecastable much further in advance. Bearing that in mind, over the
next four weeks we see such a pressure pattern more than once, so it's
fair to say that another heatwave is possible.


Monday 27 June 2011 to Sunday 3 July 2011

Hottest day of the year - soon gone

The heatwave in England on Monday will bring in cloud and thundery
showers overnight and on Tuesday, finally leaving eastern England by
Wednesday. From that point, England will join Wales, Scotland and
Northern Ireland in a westerly breeze, sunny intervals, temperatures
between 16 and 21C and a few showers. By the weekend, pressure will have
risen again causing Atlantic fronts to pile up just west of Ireland. So
what about the weekend? Those piled-up fronts seem likely to cross the
UK bringing cloud and rain, although not much in the warmer southeast.


Monday 4 July 2011 to Sunday 10 July 2011

Westerlies prevail

Although the south of the UK will have a tendency to bask in warm and
settled weather, for most, it will be back to the familiar scenario of a
westerly breeze with "sunshine and showers or longer spells of rain". No
significant departures from the July averages are likely.


Monday 11 July 2011 to Sunday 24 July 2011

Northwest southeast difference

In summer the jetstream should encourage high pressure over us rather
than low pressure and it appears that it will try just that during these
two weeks. This might set up a heatwave but even if it doesn't it looks
like the southeast of the UK will enjoy warm and often sunny weather,
and the northwest cloudier, cooler and wetter conditions.