Spot on Dave he didn't and he posted as such and why, however the Met Office did see the onset of the cold spell and the continuation of it through December.
No person/organisation is claiming that they can seasonal forecast with total accuracy, however that isn't a reason not to try. Love the profile Terry *))

Sean

yeah its my response to the nutter posts which the our usenet policeman
is making all over usenet, about a 1000 a month?
and im supposed to be sick?

just look at this

lol

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.g...c419c?hl=en&q=




On 15/07/2011 7:44 PM, Seany McD wrote:
Love the profile Terry *))

Sean

On Jul 15, 7:44*pm, Seany McD wrote:
Spot on Dave he didn't and he posted as such and why, however the Met Office did see the onset of the cold spell and the continuation of it through December.
No person/organisation is claiming that they can seasonal forecast with total accuracy, however that isn't a reason not to try. Love the profile Terry *))

Sean

True. This wasn't his best forecast! The MetO did begin to mention the
cold in the far reached of their 6-15 day forecast around the 15th of
November. It was just a mention and the far reaches of that forecast
window are as reliable as a double glazing salesman telling you that
he is not trying to sell you anything. It stayed with the same wording
for a few days, then the MetO began to firm up the forecast and I'd
judge they were correct from about 10-12 days out. TWO - thanks for
the info Brian - also saw the onset of the cold spell in December
around the same time, as their winter forecast was issued, but Brian
would not claim that Jan and Feb went as forecast.

Other people have not got access to the possible ramifications of this
research and that's why most of their forecasts, including those from
agencies which charge for them, are probably based on persistence from
what they see when they issue them, then just a stab at when that
pattern may change and when the subsequent patterns may change.

In mid-November, Will issued his winter forecast, about the same time
as the MetO made its first comment about possible cold at the very end
November. At that time, the charts were showing and had been showing
persistent , zonal conditions since mid-October. There was nothing
that would suggest a huge change to the coldest December for many
years and not surprisingly, Will didn't forecast a cold December.
Within a week of its issue, he abandoned it and was talking cold
through Christmas and (and the army being out on the streets!) then
cold persisting and returning for weeks, despite January having above
average temperatures, until the very mild February finally changed his
mind.

It's so easy for the actual events to be lost in the past, which is
why I like to monitor forecast accuracy closely. You are right Seany,
that it is not a reason to stop trying, but the majority of the triers
appear to be using exactly the same methods that have given them so
little success in the past. The MetO are different and are using the
most up-to-date research to attempt to improve their long-range
forecasting. There may well be research in the pipeline - Adam
Scaife's work on the influence of ENSO may well be important in adding
to their forecasting toolbox for this winter, as may be Mike
Lockwood's research on short-term solar influences. There may well be
other work in the pipeline that I have no knowledge of. Experts will
not stop trying and some breakthough may well happen soon, but until
then, I'll keep monitoring and just prompting a rememberance of the
actual forecasts and forecasting accuracy, as best I can. *))

go **** off on your other usenet groups, arsehole
NUTTER?

STUPID?



On 16/07/2011 9:36 AM, Dawlish wrote:
I'll keep monitoring and just prompting a rememberance of the
actual forecasts and forecasting accuracy, as best I can. *))