Still looking mighty interesting. FAX forecast for T+120 shows old and dying
slow-moving occlusions over England. These will not produce the storms but
will provide the low-level moisture (higher theta-w air). Then as the upper
trough approaches during Tuesday into Wednesday the air will de-stabilise
markedly with vorticity advection providing the ascent and trigger to
release the instability giving thunderstorms and torrential downpours. I'm
going to stick my neck out and pinpoint Wednesday and Thursday for the main
thundery days. Impossible to predict the all important detail of where the
storms will be at this stage but the whole of England and Wales will be at
risk but clearly the storms will be focussed when they do come. Models will
continue to flip-flop with areas of precipitation and amounts of CAPE/lifted
index but the developing broad pattern is an interesting one and one which
very severe weather is *possible*. Interestingly ECM re-inforces the upper
trough later in the week too before finally shunting it all away later in
the weekend.

Ciao :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Will Hand wrote:
Still looking mighty interesting. FAX forecast for T+120 shows old and
dying slow-moving occlusions over England. These will not produce the
storms but will provide the low-level moisture (higher theta-w air).
Then as the upper trough approaches during Tuesday into Wednesday the
air will de-stabilise markedly with vorticity advection providing the
ascent and trigger to release the instability giving thunderstorms and
torrential downpours. I'm going to stick my neck out and pinpoint
Wednesday and Thursday for the main thundery days. Impossible to predict
the all important detail of where the storms will be at this stage but
the whole of England and Wales will be at risk but clearly the storms
will be focussed when they do come. Models will continue to flip-flop
with areas of precipitation and amounts of CAPE/lifted index but the
developing broad pattern is an interesting one and one which very severe
weather is *possible*. Interestingly ECM re-inforces the upper trough
later in the week too before finally shunting it all away later in the
weekend.

Ciao :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Sounds like fun Will! Do you think it will be predominantly cloudy in
between or will there be sunny intervals around the storms?
Dave

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
Still looking mighty interesting. FAX forecast for T+120 shows old and
dying slow-moving occlusions over England. These will not produce the
storms but will provide the low-level moisture (higher theta-w air). Then
as the upper trough approaches during Tuesday into Wednesday the air will
de-stabilise markedly with vorticity advection providing the ascent and
trigger to release the instability giving thunderstorms and torrential
downpours. I'm going to stick my neck out and pinpoint Wednesday and
Thursday for the main thundery days. Impossible to predict the all
important detail of where the storms will be at this stage but the whole
of England and Wales will be at risk but clearly the storms will be
focussed when they do come. Models will continue to flip-flop with areas
of precipitation and amounts of CAPE/lifted index but the developing
broad pattern is an interesting one and one which very severe weather is
*possible*. Interestingly ECM re-inforces the upper trough later in the
week too before finally shunting it all away later in the weekend.

Ciao :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Sounds like fun Will! Do you think it will be predominantly cloudy in
between or will there be sunny intervals around the storms?
Dave

I fancy with all the moisture around Dave that sunshine will be at a
premium.

Will
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