After days of model froth, changes and awful inconsistency, that's
suddenly 5 consecutive gfs runs showing high pressure dominating the
UK weather at T+240 and good agreement from the ECM. So:

**On Sunday 18th Sept, the majority of the UK will be under the
influence of high pressure, with the jet to the north of the UK,
leading to dry and settled conditions for most and especially for the
south and south-east of the country. The exact position of the high is
just impossible to forecast at 10 days and there are suggestions that
it may settle just to our west, allowing a cooler north-westerly flow
and threatening the NW fringes with some rain. There have also been
suggestions that it will settle over England and Wales, leading to
some warm days and clear and cooler nights in both countries, but a
less settled flow over northern Scotland.**

For me, there's an 80% chance that the weather at 10 days will be far
more settled than what we are likely to see this weekend.

copy cat fraud of my earlier forecast.

youve just proved to everyone just that.

this is utter FRAUD

On 08/09/2011 8:11 PM, Dawlish wrote:
After days of model froth, changes and awful inconsistency, that's
suddenly 5 consecutive gfs runs showing high pressure dominating the
UK weather at T+240 and good agreement from the ECM. So:

**On Sunday 18th Sept, the majority of the UK will be under the
influence of high pressure, with the jet to the north of the UK,
leading to dry and settled conditions for most and especially for the
south and south-east of the country. The exact position of the high is
just impossible to forecast at 10 days and there are suggestions that
it may settle just to our west, allowing a cooler north-westerly flow
and threatening the NW fringes with some rain. There have also been
suggestions that it will settle over England and Wales, leading to
some warm days and clear and cooler nights in both countries, but a
less settled flow over northern Scotland.**

For me, there's an 80% chance that the weather at 10 days will be far
more settled than what we are likely to see this weekend.

On Sep 8, 8:11*pm, Dawlish wrote:
After days of model froth, changes and awful inconsistency, that's
suddenly 5 consecutive gfs runs showing high pressure dominating the
UK weather at T+240 and good agreement from the ECM. So:

**On Sunday 18th Sept, the majority of the UK will be under the
influence of high pressure, with the jet to the north of the UK,
leading to dry and settled conditions for most and especially for the
south and south-east of the country. The exact position of the high is
just impossible to forecast at 10 days and there are suggestions that
it may settle just to our west, allowing a cooler north-westerly flow
and threatening the NW fringes with some rain. There have also been
suggestions that it will settle over England and Wales, leading to
some warm days and clear and cooler nights in both countries, but a
less settled flow over northern Scotland.**

For me, there's an 80% chance that the weather at 10 days will be far
more settled than what we are likely to see this weekend.

Both models sink the high southwards a little this morning, with the
gfs indicating a possible late-season plume. That would be interesting
and welcome, but it is a fairly low probablity at present.

On Sep 8, 8:11*pm, Dawlish wrote:
After days of model froth, changes and awful inconsistency, that's
suddenly 5 consecutive gfs runs showing high pressure dominating the
UK weather at T+240 and good agreement from the ECM. So:

**On Sunday 18th Sept, the majority of the UK will be under the
influence of high pressure, with the jet to the north of the UK,
leading to dry and settled conditions for most and especially for the
south and south-east of the country. The exact position of the high is
just impossible to forecast at 10 days and there are suggestions that
it may settle just to our west, allowing a cooler north-westerly flow
and threatening the NW fringes with some rain. There have also been
suggestions that it will settle over England and Wales, leading to
some warm days and clear and cooler nights in both countries, but a
less settled flow over northern Scotland.**

For me, there's an 80% chance that the weather at 10 days will be far
more settled than what we are likely to see this weekend.

Looking pretty hopeless ATM. I doubt the models will perform a
somersault on this one either. Could be one of the 20% that get away!

On Sep 8, 8:11*pm, Dawlish wrote:
After days of model froth, changes and awful inconsistency, that's
suddenly 5 consecutive gfs runs showing high pressure dominating the
UK weather at T+240 and good agreement from the ECM. So:

**On Sunday 18th Sept, the majority of the UK will be under the
influence of high pressure, with the jet to the north of the UK,
leading to dry and settled conditions for most and especially for the
south and south-east of the country. The exact position of the high is
just impossible to forecast at 10 days and there are suggestions that
it may settle just to our west, allowing a cooler north-westerly flow
and threatening the NW fringes with some rain. There have also been
suggestions that it will settle over England and Wales, leading to
some warm days and clear and cooler nights in both countries, but a
less settled flow over northern Scotland.**

For me, there's an 80% chance that the weather at 10 days will be far
more settled than what we are likely to see this weekend.

Hopless. The high pressure never developed and indeed, the suggestion
was gone from the models within 3 days of me saying that this would
happen. This was one of the 20% that are incorrect at outcome. I can't
find a way to increase that success percentage, sorry.

On Sun, 18 Sep 2011 00:08:39 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:
Hopless. The high pressure never developed and indeed, the
suggestion
was gone from the models within 3 days of me saying that this would

Never mind - you win some, you lose some. I disagree that the high
never developed though - it did, and crossed the UK on
Wednesday/thursday. Unfortunately it was a mobile one, and quickly
made its way in to northern Europe.

--
Freddie
Bayston Hill
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/cumulus/