uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

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Old October 13th 11, 05:28 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default winter forecast anyone?

Hi Will,
I posted a thank you, but I don't see it on here. I hope you can keep posting on here. If not, maybe you could send out warnings and thoughts by email? I for one am happy to pay for such a service. With retirement looming, maybe you could start a monthly email news letter to supplement your web site.. we need as much information as possible to prepare for the future. I do some weather routing for friends sailing the oceans, and I do have someone planning to leave the U.K for the Caribbean in November, so your prognosis is invaluable when planning ahead. It looks as if it might be difficult to safely sail close to the Portuguese coast if we have lows thundering through at unusually southern latitudes.

Mike McMillan
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Old October 13th 11, 11:38 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default winter forecast anyone?

On Oct 12, 7:56*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Col" wrote in message


I've had enough, and I do mean that.

Will



Will,

As one who has a lot of interest in matters wx but without as much
knowledge as I would like, I hope you might reconsider your decision.
I look forward to reading your views, alongside those of other notable
and similarly knowledgeable contributers. Personally, I overlook the
'fluff' - as I'm sure many others do. I think it would be sad if
another talented individual would be lost to this newsgroup - if this
must happen, then it will continue its downward trajectory towards a
glee club with little to nothing to do with weather. I am certainly
not against humorous posts and a bit of banter, but sometimes enough
is enough.

Thanks again Will.

Jay.
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Old October 12th 11, 07:23 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default winter forecast anyone?

On Oct 12, 7:08*pm, Adrian wrote:
On 2011-10-12, Will *Hand wrote:
Adrian, Still burning all the copies of The Daily Express I can find; should be recycling them I know, but it gives me great pleasure - little things. Too early fo me to make an offering, I'm more November oriented for making an overall attempt; last year caught me out on late issue though.


However I inderstand La Nina has died - bless her. Pity though. Don't
like current English dryness either - yes I do understand Norman's
Lament, but here (Rutland) and to the south the poverty-sticken
farmers are howling for rain to wet the little seeds they have just
drilled, pitiful really.
North Atlantic sector (D2 in my youth) seems to be getting into a
right tangle though (GFS 121200), this could change things for the
better. Better still if happened in the winter. Oh yes and the
sun's going out, suppose that may change things a tad.

So on the scant evidence I have so far I am also saying nowt, but I
have got a shed full of good logs in for the wood (also carpet and
cat) burner. Renewable energy my foot - I thought trees were supposed
to take the nasty CO2 out the atmosphere, instead the EU subsidise the
'maintainence' of woodland - all right don't get on to me I do know a
little about forestry.

Cheers Paul

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Old October 12th 11, 08:36 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default winter forecast anyone?

On Oct 12, 8:23*pm, Paul Bartlett wrote:
On Oct 12, 7:08*pm, Adrian wrote:

On 2011-10-12, Will *Hand wrote:
Adrian, Still burning all the copies of The Daily Express I can find; should be recycling them I know, but it gives me great pleasure - little things. *Too early fo me to make an offering, I'm more November oriented for making an overall attempt; *last year caught me out on late issue though..


However I inderstand La Nina has died - bless her. *Pity though. Don't
like current English dryness either *- yes I do understand Norman's
Lament, but here (Rutland) and to the south the poverty-sticken
farmers are howling for rain to wet the little seeds they have just
drilled, pitiful really.
North Atlantic sector (D2 in my youth) seems to be getting into a
right tangle though (GFS 121200), this could change things for the
better. *Better still if happened in the winter. * Oh yes and the
sun's going out, suppose that may change things a tad.

So on the scant evidence I have so far I am also saying nowt, but I
have got a shed full of good logs in for the wood (also carpet and
cat) burner. *Renewable energy my foot - I thought trees were supposed
to take the nasty CO2 out the atmosphere, instead the EU subsidise the
'maintainence' of woodland - all right don't get on to me I do know a
little about forestry.

Cheers *Paul


A double-dip La Nina is quite likely, Paul and very likely, if you
take NOAAs view. (This Monday's update):

• La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific.
• Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have become increasingly
negative in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with La Niña.
• La Niña is expected to strengthen and continue through the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2011-12.*

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

We have now had 17 consecutive months of below average temperatures in
the equatorial Pacific (scroll through the PowerPoint slides) and La
Nina conditiions now and for much of that time, yet global
temperatures have remained in the top 10 for almost every month, by
all 5 temperature series, through that period. Hence my question to
Lawrence: "why is it so warm".

PS If Lawrence ever attempts an answer to that, it would be at odds
with every scientific institution in the world, but hey ho! Lawrence
knows best.
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Old October 12th 11, 09:13 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default winter forecast anyone?

you know best , as always, stalking again

i think lawrence should get a restraining order

reported to mr google


On 12/10/2011 9:36 PM, Dawlish wrote:


PS If Lawrence ever attempts an answer to that, it would be at odds
with every scientific institution in the world, but hey ho! Lawrence
knows best.




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Old October 13th 11, 09:30 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default winter forecast anyone?

On Oct 12, 9:36*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 12, 8:23*pm, Paul Bartlett wrote:





On Oct 12, 7:08*pm, Adrian wrote:


On 2011-10-12, Will *Hand wrote:
Adrian, Still burning all the copies of The Daily Express I can find; should be recycling them I know, but it gives me great pleasure - little things. *Too early fo me to make an offering, I'm more November oriented for making an overall attempt; *last year caught me out on late issue though.


However I inderstand La Nina has died - bless her. *Pity though. Don't
like current English dryness either *- yes I do understand Norman's
Lament, but here (Rutland) and to the south the poverty-sticken
farmers are howling for rain to wet the little seeds they have just
drilled, pitiful really.
North Atlantic sector (D2 in my youth) seems to be getting into a
right tangle though (GFS 121200), this could change things for the
better. *Better still if happened in the winter. * Oh yes and the
sun's going out, suppose that may change things a tad.


So on the scant evidence I have so far I am also saying nowt, but I
have got a shed full of good logs in for the wood (also carpet and
cat) burner. *Renewable energy my foot - I thought trees were supposed
to take the nasty CO2 out the atmosphere, instead the EU subsidise the
'maintainence' of woodland - all right don't get on to me I do know a
little about forestry.


Cheers *Paul


A double-dip La Nina is quite likely, Paul and very likely, if you
take NOAAs view. (This Monday's update):

• La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific.
• Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have become increasingly
negative in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with La Niña.
• La Niña is expected to strengthen and continue through the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2011-12.*

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ng/lanina/enso...

We have now had 17 consecutive months of below average temperatures in
the equatorial Pacific (scroll through the PowerPoint slides) and La
Nina conditiions now and for much of that time, yet global
temperatures have remained in the top 10 for almost every month, by
all 5 temperature series, through that period. Hence my question to
Lawrence: "why is it so warm".

PS If Lawrence ever attempts an answer to that, it would be at odds
with every scientific institution in the world, but hey ho! Lawrence
knows best.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


Thanks a lot for that. Cheers me up a bit,am a cold winter man
despite my great age and decrepitude.
Always celebrate a cold spell in winter by walking (hobbling) half a
mile to get a pint of real ale. That is what we formed the group for,
eaons ago, i.e the education of us all. Anyway may have a hobble down
to the Winsome Worm anyway. Incidently I gor the impression of La
Nina's demise from the press and the ecmwf seasonal.
Cheers Paul
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Old October 12th 11, 09:30 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Posts: 7
Default winter forecast anyone?

welcome back

On 12/10/2011 8:23 PM, Paul Bartlett wrote:


So on the scant evidence I have so far I am also saying nowt, but I
have got a shed full of good logs in for the wood (also carpet and
cat) burner. Renewable energy my foot - I thought trees were supposed
to take the nasty CO2 out the atmosphere, instead the EU subsidise the
'maintainence' of woodland - all right don't get on to me I do know a
little about forestry.

Cheers Paul


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Old October 12th 11, 11:09 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Posts: 1,184
Default winter forecast anyone?

On 12/10/11 20:23, Paul Bartlett wrote:

So on the scant evidence I have so far I am also saying nowt, but I
have got a shed full of good logs in for the wood (also carpet and
cat) burner. Renewable energy my foot - I thought trees were supposed
to take the nasty CO2 out the atmosphere, instead the EU subsidise the
'maintainence' of woodland - all right don't get on to me I do know a
little about forestry.


Well if you don't maintain the woodland then what are you going to fuel
your woodburner with? :-)

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Old October 13th 11, 07:42 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Posts: 264
Default winter forecast anyone?

On Oct 13, 12:09*am, Adam Lea wrote:
On 12/10/11 20:23, Paul Bartlett wrote:

Well if you don't maintain the woodland then what are you going to fuel
your woodburner with? :-)

Adam - what you do (if you are nutty enough to be PC) is bury the wood
and wait a few million years 'till the sun weakens and then dig it
(the 'mature' wood) up and burn it as coal or peat. Called 'Energy
Conservation'.
I have sinned, I have also talked obvious twaddle, but I reckon you've
twisted it a bit. You only burn dead - or 'well seasoned' wood which
has lost its capacity for taking CO2 out the atmosphere - so you HAVE
to burn it to replenish the Co2 loss. If you don't the trees and most
other vegetation die - and we freeze to death.
I obviously hadn't thought it through. But thank you, I now feel
virtuous. I only bought it because it looks nice, produces a pleasant
heat, and smells pleasant, and it replaced the useless imitation gas
fire. Cheers (in shame) Paul
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Old October 13th 11, 05:43 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Great to see you back Paul, I too am massing a large store of wood. I now have a hydraulic log splitter attached to the digger. Fantastic! I am getting a bit old for splitting by hand. The trees fall down faster than I can cut them up. I'm lucky.

Mike McMillan


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