Note: There won't be an analysis tomorrow as I'll be in a hotel near the
wolf centre.

The end of the week will see a trough moving across the UK with wind and
rain for all. Thereafter it looks unsettled, with low pressure close by and
further wind and rain for all.

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Thursday.
Issued 0513, 16/10/11

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
A col covers much of England and Wales, with SW'lies further north. Tomorrow
light winds persist across the Midlands south, with SW'lies elsewhere. A
trough moves eastwards on Tuesday, bringing strong to gale force WSW'lies.
Wednesday sees strong WNW'lies over the UK as the trough moves away to the
east.

T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a weak ridge over the UK with a trough to the
west. There's a ridge at the 500hPa level too, with westerlies aloft. The
other runs show a similar picture.
At the surface GFS has a trough over western areas with SSW'lies elsewhere.
JMA has a weak trough over the UK with SW'lies and the others show a ridge
and westerlies over the UK.

Evolution to day 7
A trough crosses the UK on day 6 with ECM, giving way to strong to gale
force SW'lies on day 7 in association with a deep low to the NW.
GFS shows SW'lies on day 6 as a trough moves eastwards. The SW'lies
strengthen on day 7 due to a low to the WNW.

Looking further afield
ECM shows low pressure filling to the WNW on days 8 to 10, with SW'lies for
all as a result.
GFS sees a low over Scotland and Northern Ireland on day 8, with WSW'lies
and SW'lies elsewhere. On day 9 there are westerlies and a weak trough over
the North Sea. Day 10 sees another trough to the west with southerlies in
advance.

Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres
GEFS shows wet and windy weather after the 20th, with temperatures by night
well above average and with days close to average.

ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif
The ECM ensembles near normal temperatures from the 20th.

On Sun, 16 Oct 2011 at 05:14:46, Darren Prescott wrote
in uk.sci.weather :

Note: There won't be an analysis tomorrow as I'll be in a hotel near
the wolf centre.

The end of the week will see a trough moving across the UK with wind
and rain for all. Thereafter it looks unsettled, with low pressure
close by and further wind and rain for all.

Rain - what's that? 8)
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

On Sun, 16 Oct 2011 at 07:43:50, Paul Hyett
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

The end of the week will see a trough moving across the UK with wind
and rain for all. Thereafter it looks unsettled, with low pressure
close by and further wind and rain for all.

Rain - what's that? 8)

Finally got a memory-jogger last night - just over 10mm, the first
substantial amount we've had in 4 weeks.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

On Tue, 18 Oct 2011 08:57:57 +0100, Paul Hyett
wrote:
Rain - what's that? 8)




Finally got a memory-jogger last night - just over 10mm, the first
substantial amount we've had in 4 weeks.

4 weeks? Wow - come to sunny Shropshire where it's been 3 months
since we've had more than 3 mm in a day! Current total for October is
8.25 mm, with 0.75 mm on the front last night.

--
Freddie
Bayston Hill
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/cumulus/