On Oct 18, 10:17*am, John Hall wrote:


Even should the easterlies occur, it would pretty exceptional for them
to produce anything really cold so early in the season.
--

================================================== =

Indeed. In any case, EC deterministic has been trending more SE'ly
than E'ly towards T+240, and GFS 06 has as well, for what either of
them are worth (with that tendency in ensembles). GFS still very
volatile of course at 10-15 days, now with a completely different
nicely mobile set up on 06 issue, which I have no doubt will flip
again.

Stephen.

On Oct 18, 6:29*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

Everything annoys you. People have all the right to get excited about
easterlies at this time of year if annoys you to death then don't
read the posts. It's that simple.

As for your reason for posting about the same subject yesterday, why
it's just plain pathetic blather from the king of blatherer's. I mean
if you are so sickened by seeing posts about Easterlies then why oh
why would you post this thread headliner below.

"Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??"

seems rather illogical to me.

On Oct 18, 10:17*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,





*Dawlish writes:
On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

Even should the easterlies occur, it would pretty exceptional for them
to produce anything really cold so early in the season.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Of course; it is only October. A battleground appears the more likely
outcome. See what the ECM 12z turns up.

On Oct 18, 5:36*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 18, 6:29*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

Everything annoys you. People have all the right to get excited about
easterlies at this time of year if annoys you to death *then don't
read the posts. It's that simple.

As for your reason for posting about the same subject yesterday, why
it's just plain pathetic blather from the king of blatherer's. I mean
if you are so sickened by seeing posts about Easterlies then why oh
why would you post this thread headliner below.

"Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??"

seems rather illogical to me.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hilarious. laughing

just couldnt help a long range taking a dig at Will could you?

fluffing coward.


On 17/10/2011 8:41 PM, Dawlish wrote:
I'd hope that would be a lesson for the winter,
but I doubt it will and we'll see the "EASTERLIES!!!!!!!!! again,
this winter, after a single model run - even from MetO professionals
who like the cold, based on single model runs. *))

oh we know you are.
always talkin out of youre arse, you know, the crack that spews all your
fluff on here.

bum fluff.

On 18/10/2011 7:51 PM, Dawlish wrote:

Hilarious.laughing

On Oct 18, 7:51*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 5:36*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:





On Oct 18, 6:29*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

Everything annoys you. People have all the right to get excited about
easterlies at this time of year if annoys you to death *then don't
read the posts. It's that simple.

As for your reason for posting about the same subject yesterday, why
it's just plain pathetic blather from the king of blatherer's. I mean
if you are so sickened by seeing posts about Easterlies then why oh
why would you post this thread headliner below.

"Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??"

seems rather illogical to me.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hilarious. laughing- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

You are a failed teacher who's turned their hand to school inspection
or consultation, who ironically tries to get schools past the
bureaucratic idiots like yourself who now run this country. That
explains why you have the mentality of a traffic warden with a slight
learning disability; because that is your level, someone who would
have thrived in the Stasi.

On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.

On Oct 18, 11:16*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 18, 7:51*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 18, 5:36*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:

On Oct 18, 6:29*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

Everything annoys you. People have all the right to get excited about
easterlies at this time of year if annoys you to death *then don't
read the posts. It's that simple.

As for your reason for posting about the same subject yesterday, why
it's just plain pathetic blather from the king of blatherer's. I mean
if you are so sickened by seeing posts about Easterlies then why oh
why would you post this thread headliner below.

"Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??"

seems rather illogical to me.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hilarious. laughing- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

You are a failed teacher who's turned their hand to school inspection
or consultation, who ironically tries to *get schools past the
bureaucratic idiots like yourself who now run this country. That
explains *why you have the mentality of a traffic warden with a slight
learning disability; *because that is your level, someone who would
have thrived in the Stasi.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Just abuse.

On Oct 18, 11:55*pm, Adam Lea wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, *wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))