On Oct 19, 7:09*pm, "Col" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message

...





In article
,
Lawrence13 writes:
There wasn't a lot of snow in the SE in the 30's either even though a
cold decade.

Going by your next two sentences, did you mean the 1970s?

If my memory serves me well I can only remember 1970 at
Christmas and 78/79. There may have been some falls in rural areas in
other years but only those two years stand out for snow in SE London.

And in Surrey too. The winters from 1970-1 to 1975-6 were all mild, and
1974-5 was exceptionally so. Then the winters turned successively colder
over the next three years. February 1978 had a notable blizzard in the
SW (probably the worst in that region since March, 1891), but the snow
didn't reach Surrey or London (even though the forecast on the preceding
evening had been for it to do so).

Yes, I've heard about that.
It's a good job this group didn't exist back then, Lawrence would have been
on suicide watch when that one failed to happen
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

How do you know I wasn't and I'm talking from beyond the grave
whooooooo.

and no replies saying that you sound like you are ;-)

On Oct 19, 6:04*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 19, 6:28*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 18, 11:55*pm, Adam Lea wrote:

On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:

On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, *wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Will enjoys the cold and is biased towards it *which is natural but he
is still a professional and many here although they might moan when a
forecast doesn't quite pan out would miss Will's input *greatly . You
seem to feel the need to show disrespect to everyone on this group if
they don't see things your way-why do you do that?
Other people have disagreed on here all the time but they don't seem
to do it with a sneer on their face. Is that how you mean to come
across or are you tragically misunderstood?

One thing is certain though. When there is a sniff of interesting
weather on the horizon people will be seeking out Will's posts -not
yours.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Nor my posts I should have said . By the way the last person that read
one of my posts; have they come of section yet?

Dawlish wrote:

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

Well I'm a 'coldie' but I'd like to think I'm one who has reasonable
expectations and doesn't get carried away with T+240 and beyond
GFS charts. Yes, they are interesting, but I'd like to see consistency
in the models at 7 days, preferably 5 days out before commiting myself to
getting 'excited'

--
Col - Toys kept inside the pram where they belong.....

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Oct 19, 6:43*pm, John Hall wrote:


And in Surrey too. The winters from 1970-1 to 1975-6 were all mild, and
1974-5 was exceptionally so. Then the winters turned successively colder
over the next three years. February 1978 had a notable blizzard in the
SW (probably the worst in that region since March, 1891), but the snow
didn't reach Surrey or London (even though the forecast on the preceding
evening had been for it to do so).


=========================

I remember that '78 blizzard vividly. A number of us were on a geology
field trip staying in a hostel somewhere near Watchet and Blue Anchor
in Somerset, in an adjunct to the main building. Aftrer what was
evidently serious snowfall and drifting overnight we were awoken by
the sound of shovels digging us out of a drift that had almost reached
the top of the door.

With all the geology being covered in snow and ice we didn't achieve
much. Nice pubs, though.

Stephen.

Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 19, 7:09 pm, "Col" wrote:


Yes, I've heard about that.
It's a good job this group didn't exist back then, Lawrence would
have been on suicide watch when that one failed to happen
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

How do you know I wasn't and I'm talking from beyond the grave
whooooooo.

and no replies saying that you sound like you are ;-)

Just the one foot, just the one
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On 19/10/11 11:32, Roger Smith wrote:
"Adam wrote in message
...
On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.-
Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the
(historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the
exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who
have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.
--------------------------------
Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and
1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff transforms
the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing but
harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills.

So I do not look forward to it. For me, much better if it is mild and damp
in the winter.

Roger
Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks.



Yes I do have a conflict of interest between enjoying a snowy landscape
and the crunching under my feet, and detesting the disruption to life
and pitying those who, unlike me, can't get outdoors for fear of
falling. Last December was a nightmare for trying to get to work, 2-3
weeks of cycling precariously (on studded tyres) along untreated minor
roads up and down hills. So yes, I appreciate the problems it causes. It
doesn't help that the local authorities in the SE appear to have a can't
be arsed attitude when it comes to dealing with ice and snow on the roads.

As far as heating bills go, have you considered this:

http://www.eonenergy.com/At-Home/Pro...-Gas/StayWarm/

again, a cowardly blow at Will, whos not even involved in the thread.
showing signs of stalking again, Will and Lawrence watch out, theres a
fluff magent about. kiss kiss
yuk

reported to mr google anyway

On 19/10/2011 6:28 AM, Dawlish wrote:

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 19/10/11 11:32, Roger Smith wrote:
"Adam wrote in message
...
On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2
models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type
weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.-
Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of
the
(historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the
exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those
who
have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.
--------------------------------
Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and
1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff
transforms
the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing
but
harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills.

So I do not look forward to it. For me, much better if it is mild and
damp
in the winter.

Roger
Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks.



Yes I do have a conflict of interest between enjoying a snowy landscape
and the crunching under my feet, and detesting the disruption to life and
pitying those who, unlike me, can't get outdoors for fear of falling. Last
December was a nightmare for trying to get to work, 2-3 weeks of cycling
precariously (on studded tyres) along untreated minor roads up and down
hills. So yes, I appreciate the problems it causes. It doesn't help that
the local authorities in the SE appear to have a can't be arsed attitude
when it comes to dealing with ice and snow on the roads.

As far as heating bills go, have you considered this:

http://www.eonenergy.com/At-Home/Pro...-Gas/StayWarm/

The house has too many bedrooms. And there are many competing fixed price
deals on the market, not just for the over-60s.

Regards, Roger

On Wed, 19 Oct 2011 19:09:02 +0100, Col wrote:

"John Hall" wrote in message
...


And in Surrey too. The winters from 1970-1 to 1975-6 were all mild, and
1974-5 was exceptionally so. Then the winters turned successively
colder over the next three years. February 1978 had a notable blizzard
in the SW (probably the worst in that region since March, 1891), but
the snow didn't reach Surrey or London (even though the forecast on the
preceding evening had been for it to do so).

Yes, I've heard about that.
It's a good job this group didn't exist back then, Lawrence would have
been on suicide watch when that one failed to happen

I recall a similar blizzard near that time but 1978 would have been too
early. I reckon the one I'm thinking of would have happened a year later.
Whatever year it was, I took wellington boots to work in the morning so
as to be ready for the trudge home through the deep snow. As soon as I
saw the charts in the Met Office entrance hall, I thought, "it ain't
gonna happen!" According to the thickness pattern, the low appeared to be
situated in the left exit of one jet and the right entrance to another
and would be steered SE into France and miss us. Which is what happened.

A while later, I reran analyses and forecasts, modifying data, and
produced a report on what I'd found which, if I remember rightly, was
very little. Although it was obvious to me from the charts that morning
that the snow would miss us, I couldn't tweak the data going into the
Rectangle model to provide the correct answer.




--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
Whilst it's true that money can't buy you happiness, at least you can
be miserable in comfort.
Newsreader for Windows, Mac, Unix family: http://pan.rebelbase.com/

On Mon, 17 Oct 2011 22:29:11 -0700, Dawlish wrote:


PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of
gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly
interested.

It's jolly kind of you to devote yourself to keeping us safe from all
these disreputable people: People who say they can produce accurate
seasonal forecasts; Excitable coldies; People who say they can forecast
at 10 days; People who say the world isn't warming, and more, I'm sure.
Of course there will be people who say that you are tedious and
repetitive, but *you know better than them*, they don't have your
intelligence and vision.

So shrug off the sneers and stand up for all those people who don't have
the benefit of being you. I for one am jolly pleased that you've been put
in charge of this group!