On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of
the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with
the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than
those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.

In article ,
Adam Lea writes:
Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

Yep.


I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have
memories of the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the
90's and 00's (with the exception of the last three years) appreciate
the snow more than those who have memories of the 60's through
80's. Just a thought.

I still love snow, even though I can remember those relatively snowy
decades. I'm hard put to come up with a convincing rational reason
though, especially since having slipped over twice in one day on
hard-packed snow turned into ice back in December 2009 and been
fortunate not to break any bones.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

On Oct 19, 10:36*am, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Adam Lea writes:

Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

Yep.



I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have
memories of the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the
90's and 00's (with the exception of the last three years) appreciate
the snow more than those who have memories of the 60's through
80's. Just a thought.

I still love snow, even though I can remember those relatively snowy
decades. I'm hard put to come up with a convincing rational reason
though, especially since having slipped over twice in one day on
hard-packed snow turned into ice back in December 2009 and been
fortunate not to break any bones.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

Look at poor Dr Atkins of the Atkins diet fame: He slipped over on ice
on his way to his New York office hit his head and never recovered.

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.-
Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the
(historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the
exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who
have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.
--------------------------------
Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and
1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff transforms
the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing but
harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills.

So I do not look forward to it. For me, much better if it is mild and damp
in the winter.

Roger
Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks.

On Oct 19, 11:32*am, "Roger Smith" wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message

...



On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam *wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:

On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, * *wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.-
Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the
(historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the
exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who
have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.

--------------------------------
Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and
1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff transforms
the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing but
harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills.

So I do not look forward to it. *For me, much better if it is mild and damp
in the winter.

Roger
Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I agree totally with your sentiments.............but I still love
winter and the colder the better.

On 19/10/11 11:32, Roger Smith wrote:
"Adam wrote in message
...
On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.-
Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the
(historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the
exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who
have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.
--------------------------------
Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and
1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff transforms
the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing but
harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills.

So I do not look forward to it. For me, much better if it is mild and damp
in the winter.

Roger
Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks.



Yes I do have a conflict of interest between enjoying a snowy landscape
and the crunching under my feet, and detesting the disruption to life
and pitying those who, unlike me, can't get outdoors for fear of
falling. Last December was a nightmare for trying to get to work, 2-3
weeks of cycling precariously (on studded tyres) along untreated minor
roads up and down hills. So yes, I appreciate the problems it causes. It
doesn't help that the local authorities in the SE appear to have a can't
be arsed attitude when it comes to dealing with ice and snow on the roads.

As far as heating bills go, have you considered this:

http://www.eonenergy.com/At-Home/Pro...-Gas/StayWarm/

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 19/10/11 11:32, Roger Smith wrote:
"Adam wrote in message
...
On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2
models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type
weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.-
Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of
the
(historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the
exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those
who
have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.
--------------------------------
Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and
1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff
transforms
the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing
but
harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills.

So I do not look forward to it. For me, much better if it is mild and
damp
in the winter.

Roger
Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks.



Yes I do have a conflict of interest between enjoying a snowy landscape
and the crunching under my feet, and detesting the disruption to life and
pitying those who, unlike me, can't get outdoors for fear of falling. Last
December was a nightmare for trying to get to work, 2-3 weeks of cycling
precariously (on studded tyres) along untreated minor roads up and down
hills. So yes, I appreciate the problems it causes. It doesn't help that
the local authorities in the SE appear to have a can't be arsed attitude
when it comes to dealing with ice and snow on the roads.

As far as heating bills go, have you considered this:

http://www.eonenergy.com/At-Home/Pro...-Gas/StayWarm/

The house has too many bedrooms. And there are many competing fixed price
deals on the market, not just for the over-60s.

Regards, Roger

On Oct 19, 8:34*am, Adam Lea wrote:
On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam *wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:

On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, * *wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of
the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with
the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than
those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There wasn't a lot of snow in the SE in the 30's either even though a
cold decade. If my memory serves me well I can only remember 1970 at
Christmas and 78/79. There may have been some falls in rural areas in
other years but only those two years stand out for snow in SE London.

In article
,
Lawrence13 writes:
There wasn't a lot of snow in the SE in the 30's either even though a
cold decade.

Going by your next two sentences, did you mean the 1970s?

If my memory serves me well I can only remember 1970 at
Christmas and 78/79. There may have been some falls in rural areas in
other years but only those two years stand out for snow in SE London.

And in Surrey too. The winters from 1970-1 to 1975-6 were all mild, and
1974-5 was exceptionally so. Then the winters turned successively colder
over the next three years. February 1978 had a notable blizzard in the
SW (probably the worst in that region since March, 1891), but the snow
didn't reach Surrey or London (even though the forecast on the preceding
evening had been for it to do so).

In our part of the world both the 1960s and 1980s taken as a whole were
snowier than the 1970s, in spite of 1978-9.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article
,
Lawrence13 writes:
There wasn't a lot of snow in the SE in the 30's either even though a
cold decade.

Going by your next two sentences, did you mean the 1970s?

If my memory serves me well I can only remember 1970 at
Christmas and 78/79. There may have been some falls in rural areas in
other years but only those two years stand out for snow in SE London.

And in Surrey too. The winters from 1970-1 to 1975-6 were all mild, and
1974-5 was exceptionally so. Then the winters turned successively colder
over the next three years. February 1978 had a notable blizzard in the
SW (probably the worst in that region since March, 1891), but the snow
didn't reach Surrey or London (even though the forecast on the preceding
evening had been for it to do so).

Yes, I've heard about that.
It's a good job this group didn't exist back then, Lawrence would have been
on suicide watch when that one failed to happen
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl