On Oct 19, 11:32*am, "Roger Smith" wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message

...



On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam *wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:

On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, * *wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.-
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Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!

2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.

That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))

Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)

I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the
(historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the
exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who
have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.

--------------------------------
Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and
1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff transforms
the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing but
harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills.

So I do not look forward to it. *For me, much better if it is mild and damp
in the winter.

Roger
Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks.- Hide quoted text -

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I agree totally with your sentiments.............but I still love
winter and the colder the better.