Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Now who was it who said only recently.

"gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about
trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid.
*)) "


Oh yes it was you LOL

Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model
malarkey business, do you?

On Oct 17, 7:01�pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 17, 5:47Â*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Now who was it who said only recently.

"gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about
trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid.
*)) "

Oh yes it was you LOL

Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model
malarkey �business, do you?

Nice La Nina shaping up for early next year....

CK

talking out his arse you mean.

and who are these coldies?
year 3 in junior school?

On 17/10/2011 6:01 PM, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Now who was it who said only recently.

"gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about
trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid.
*)) "


Oh yes it was you LOL

Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model
malarkey business, do you?

On Oct 17, 6:01*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Now who was it who said only recently.

"gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about
trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid.
*)) "

Oh yes it was you LOL

Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model
malarkey *business, do you?

That's why I call using one model run as any kind of predictive tool
"model fluff" and it is exactly what people like you do and what you
did only a week ago. I'd hope that would be a lesson for the winter,
but I doubt it will and we'll see the "EASTERLIES!!!!!!!!! again,
this winter, after a single model run - even from MetO professionals
who like the cold, based on single model runs. *))

Don't you just love it when someone like Lawrence falls headlong into
the trap. laughing - that really is funny

On Oct 17, 7:44*pm, Natsman wrote:
On Oct 17, 7:01 pm, Lawrence13 wrote:





On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Now who was it who said only recently.

"gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about
trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid.
*)) "

Oh yes it was you LOL

Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model
malarkey business, do you?

Nice La Nina shaping up for early next year....

CK- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

"Nice"? What would that mean then?

On Oct 17, 8:41*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 17, 6:01*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:





On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Now who was it who said only recently.

"gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about
trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid.
*)) "

Oh yes it was you LOL

Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model
malarkey *business, do you?

That's why I call using one model run as any kind of predictive tool
"model fluff" and it is exactly what people like you do and what you
did only a week ago. I'd hope that would be a lesson for the winter,
but I doubt it will and we'll see the "EASTERLIES!!!!!!!!! *again,
this winter, after a single model run - even from MetO professionals
who like the cold, based on single model runs. *))

Don't you just love it when someone like Lawrence falls headlong into
the trap. laughing - that really is funny- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


Too late to wriggle out now you are justreinforcing your ludicrous
behaviour I mean if what you're saying is true then that what make you
look very childish; either way your exposed a tad more a pompous
vainglorious twerp. The sort of man who wears out mirrors. the David
Hassledolt of ukSci blather

It also begs the questionl if you are so dismissive of one model run
why bleedin' mention iit then in the first place; covering all bases
are we?

In fact as natsman points out were are in for one heck of an La Nina,
but a cooling planet doesn't mean that our winter will be cold but the
odds are a hell of a lot better.

On Oct 17, 9:52*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 17, 8:41*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 17, 6:01*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:

On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Now who was it who said only recently.

"gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about
trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid.
*)) "

Oh yes it was you LOL

Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model
malarkey *business, do you?

That's why I call using one model run as any kind of predictive tool
"model fluff" and it is exactly what people like you do and what you
did only a week ago. I'd hope that would be a lesson for the winter,
but I doubt it will and we'll see the "EASTERLIES!!!!!!!!! *again,
this winter, after a single model run - even from MetO professionals
who like the cold, based on single model runs. *))

Don't you just love it when someone like Lawrence falls headlong into
the trap. laughing - that really is funny- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Too late to wriggle out now you are justreinforcing your ludicrous
behaviour I mean if what you're saying is true then that what make you
look very childish; either way your exposed a tad more a pompous
vainglorious twerp. The sort of man who wears out mirrors. the David
Hassledolt of ukSci blather

It also begs the questionl if you are so dismissive of one model run
why bleedin' mention iit then in the first place; covering all bases
are we?

In fact as natsman points out were are in for one heck of an La Nina,
but a cooling planet doesn't mean that our winter will be cold but the
odds are a hell of a lot better.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Sure Lawrence, sure. keep up the abuse, it's hilarious. still
laughing at Lawrence, falling headlong into the one-run trap

Read about the possibilities of a double-dip La Nina here. Especially
look at slide 27 and the spread of the predictive models (The NCEP,
that NOAA use for their ENSO forecasts is only one of 24). Then think;
if we've had 17 consecutive months of below average temperatures in
the Equatorial Pacific, how can global temperatures have stayed in the
top 10 warmest for their respective months for almost every single
month during that time, in all 5 temperature series, without a major
positive forcing balancing the global cooling effects of a La Nina?
Then think; what is the positive atmospheric temperature forcing that
is likely to be, that is keeping those temperatures high, despite the
plethora of current negaitive forcings (including 17 months of La Nina
conditions?) Hard questions Lawrence aren't they?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

"A cooling planet" Why does not a single scientific institution *in
the world* agree with you that the global temperature trend is
downward? Odd that isn't it?

On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.

PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.

Even should the easterlies occur, it would pretty exceptional for them
to produce anything really cold so early in the season.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw