After hinting at high pressure establishing itself over the UK at
T240, the 06zgfs shows the high to our south-west. The ECM has never
showed the establishment of that high over us and has constantly kept
it to our E/NE.

I favour the ECM solution, but the lack of agreement and the lack of
consistency between successive gfs runs suggests that the models,
especially the gfs, are struggling with the position of the block.

What I don't see is anything exceptionally cold weather, yet - but I'm
sure we'll hear straightaway, when the first isolated run shows a much
colder scenario. *))

On Nov 10, 11:03*am, Dawlish wrote:
After hinting at high pressure establishing itself over the UK at
T240, the 06zgfs shows the high to our south-west. The ECM has never
showed the establishment of that high over us and has constantly kept
it to our E/NE.

I favour the ECM solution, but the lack of agreement and the lack of
consistency between successive gfs runs suggests that the models,
especially the gfs, are struggling with the position of the block.

What I don't see is anything exceptionally cold weather, yet - but I'm
sure we'll hear straightaway, when the first isolated run shows a much
colder scenario. *))

12z ECM looks more in the right direction at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif.
There's something that looks so right with potential in that chart at
240hrs. Is it me?