Home |
Search |
Today's Posts |
![]() |
|
uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
Reply |
|
LinkBack | Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#21
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
occupation, usenet resident troll
1500 posts a month, branding everyone a nutter, troll, denier, racist look it up yourself, google never lies. On 16/11/2011 1:01 PM, Neo wrote: Hi Dawlish, What is your source of the interpreted information? Or do you derive that from looking at some of the publicly available output? Do you work at a large glass building in Devon, hence your screen name? Neo --- Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net/ - Complaints to --- |
#22
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Nov 16, 1:35*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 16, 1:01*pm, Neo wrote: On Nov 16, 8:37*am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 16, 8:30*am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 13, 4:20*pm, Neo wrote: Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold), just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago....Now thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks. The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period. Neo I kept an eye on them. Nothing extra-specially cold 3 days on, Neo; just the possibility of the high pressure that looked like it might settle to our S/SE, now looking like it may settle over the UK. Just looks like a slow and steady descent into early winter, with a little cooler temperatures, but with them staying pretty average really and the possibility of some frog and fost if the skies clear. 8)) See if the model agreement about the position of the high pressure lasts to tonight. Just as an addition to the last comment; neither the gfs 00z. nor the ECM 12z from yesterday back the establishment of a static high pressure over the UK at 10 days and we may well see the models change back to a more zonal outlook during today. There's nothing particularly cold about the ensemble means of either model. Hi Dawlish, What is your source of the interpreted information? Or do you derive that from looking at some of the publicly available output? Do you work at a large glass building in Devon, hence your screen name? Something I have seen in the model outputs (Might have been be an outlier a few days ago, but a few more than one now suggest this) suggests something changing on or around the end of Nov/early Dec. It suggests a cold NNW incursion as low pressure/cold front sinks SE from a temporary mobile W scenario. This followed by rising pressure across the far N of the UK, giving some N, then NE winds. The high then becomes slow moving just to the N of the UK, and may even link with the high over towards Finland eventually. The info would suggest normal temps just ahead of this event, with any rainfall reverting to snow on scottish mountains, followed by a cold regime, especially for the N and E of the UK. Low pressure begins to affect the Med area/S Europe, with unsettled conditions for many down there. Looks like maybe we will see the changes take effect as December draws in. Can't be any worse that last year, whatever happens. I also wonder if the upper atmospheric cooling might be behind some models hinting at this...as not all models incorporate anything too much above the Jet levels in their longer term variables...it is still early days in that area of research even now, Just a thought. Cheers Neo- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I agree the models could always change. Indeed, at 2 weeks, the odds are they probably will. Nothing showing at present however, that I can see and it certainly didn't change in yout initial 3/4 day suggested period. I see you are now suggesting the end of November. Are you trying to look in the 10-16 day period here on the gfs, or do have access to some non-publically avainlable data. If so. What is it? There appears to be nothing unusual happening in the stratosphere. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktue...w/wdiag/ts.php Recent research suggests that SSW events may influence NH weather. I'm not aware of reearch that shows that stratospheric cooling causes any changes at surface levels, but I'd be interested to see a link.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Nothing showing cold on the 00z gfs, or ECM. This will probably end up a very warm November. |
#23
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Nov 17, 6:54*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 16, 1:35*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 16, 1:01*pm, Neo wrote: On Nov 16, 8:37*am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 16, 8:30*am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 13, 4:20*pm, Neo wrote: Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold), just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago...Now thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks. The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period. Neo I kept an eye on them. Nothing extra-specially cold 3 days on, Neo; just the possibility of the high pressure that looked like it might settle to our S/SE, now looking like it may settle over the UK. Just looks like a slow and steady descent into early winter, with a little cooler temperatures, but with them staying pretty average really and the possibility of some frog and fost if the skies clear. 8)) See if the model agreement about the position of the high pressure lasts to tonight. Just as an addition to the last comment; neither the gfs 00z. nor the ECM 12z from yesterday back the establishment of a static high pressure over the UK at 10 days and we may well see the models change back to a more zonal outlook during today. There's nothing particularly cold about the ensemble means of either model. Hi Dawlish, What is your source of the interpreted information? Or do you derive that from looking at some of the publicly available output? Do you work at a large glass building in Devon, hence your screen name? Something I have seen in the model outputs (Might have been be an outlier a few days ago, but a few more than one now suggest this) suggests something changing on or around the end of Nov/early Dec. It suggests a cold NNW incursion as low pressure/cold front sinks SE from a temporary mobile W scenario. This followed by rising pressure across the far N of the UK, giving some N, then NE winds. The high then becomes slow moving just to the N of the UK, and may even link with the high over towards Finland eventually. The info would suggest normal temps just ahead of this event, with any rainfall reverting to snow on scottish mountains, followed by a cold regime, especially for the N and E of the UK. Low pressure begins to affect the Med area/S Europe, with unsettled conditions for many down there. Looks like maybe we will see the changes take effect as December draws in. Can't be any worse that last year, whatever happens. I also wonder if the upper atmospheric cooling might be behind some models hinting at this...as not all models incorporate anything too much above the Jet levels in their longer term variables...it is still early days in that area of research even now, Just a thought. Cheers Neo- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I agree the models could always change. Indeed, at 2 weeks, the odds are they probably will. Nothing showing at present however, that I can see and it certainly didn't change in yout initial 3/4 day suggested period. I see you are now suggesting the end of November. Are you trying to look in the 10-16 day period here on the gfs, or do have access to some non-publically avainlable data. If so. What is it? There appears to be nothing unusual happening in the stratosphere. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktue...w/wdiag/ts.php Recent research suggests that SSW events may influence NH weather. I'm not aware of reearch that shows that stratospheric cooling causes any changes at surface levels, but I'd be interested to see a link.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Nothing showing cold on the 00z gfs, or ECM. This will probably end up a very warm November. November is not in my time frame for the cold incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the first week. November will be mild, purely because it has been well over average up to and including day 17, and the S winds continue for now. Neo |
#24
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Nov 17, 11:01*am, Neo wrote:
On Nov 17, 6:54*am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 16, 1:35*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 16, 1:01*pm, Neo wrote: On Nov 16, 8:37*am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 16, 8:30*am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 13, 4:20*pm, Neo wrote: Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold), just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago...Now thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks. The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period. Neo I kept an eye on them. Nothing extra-specially cold 3 days on, Neo; just the possibility of the high pressure that looked like it might settle to our S/SE, now looking like it may settle over the UK. Just looks like a slow and steady descent into early winter, with a little cooler temperatures, but with them staying pretty average really and the possibility of some frog and fost if the skies clear. 8)) See if the model agreement about the position of the high pressure lasts to tonight. Just as an addition to the last comment; neither the gfs 00z. nor the ECM 12z from yesterday back the establishment of a static high pressure over the UK at 10 days and we may well see the models change back to a more zonal outlook during today. There's nothing particularly cold about the ensemble means of either model. Hi Dawlish, What is your source of the interpreted information? Or do you derive that from looking at some of the publicly available output? Do you work at a large glass building in Devon, hence your screen name? Something I have seen in the model outputs (Might have been be an outlier a few days ago, but a few more than one now suggest this) suggests something changing on or around the end of Nov/early Dec. It suggests a cold NNW incursion as low pressure/cold front sinks SE from a temporary mobile W scenario. This followed by rising pressure across the far N of the UK, giving some N, then NE winds. The high then becomes slow moving just to the N of the UK, and may even link with the high over towards Finland eventually. The info would suggest normal temps just ahead of this event, with any rainfall reverting to snow on scottish mountains, followed by a cold regime, especially for the N and E of the UK. Low pressure begins to affect the Med area/S Europe, with unsettled conditions for many down there. Looks like maybe we will see the changes take effect as December draws in. Can't be any worse that last year, whatever happens. I also wonder if the upper atmospheric cooling might be behind some models hinting at this...as not all models incorporate anything too much above the Jet levels in their longer term variables...it is still early days in that area of research even now, Just a thought. Cheers Neo- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I agree the models could always change. Indeed, at 2 weeks, the odds are they probably will. Nothing showing at present however, that I can see and it certainly didn't change in yout initial 3/4 day suggested period. I see you are now suggesting the end of November. Are you trying to look in the 10-16 day period here on the gfs, or do have access to some non-publically avainlable data. If so. What is it? There appears to be nothing unusual happening in the stratosphere. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktue...w/wdiag/ts.php Recent research suggests that SSW events may influence NH weather. I'm not aware of reearch that shows that stratospheric cooling causes any changes at surface levels, but I'd be interested to see a link.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Nothing showing cold on the 00z gfs, or ECM. This will probably end up a very warm November. November is not in my time frame for the cold incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the first week. November will be mild, purely because it has been well over average up to and including day 17, and the S winds continue for now. Neo- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - HI Neo. You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3 to 4 days": "A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks." and this, 2 days later on 16th Nov when no cooling was showing in that time frame: "......something changing on or around the end of Nov/ early Dec". Now you are saying "November is not in my time frame for the cold incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the first week" If you keep saying it will get cold and putting the date of the cold back every time it doesn't happen, I can guarantee that your forecast of cold will be correct at some time this winter. I agree with you; it will get cold at some time. |
#25
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]() HI Neo. You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3 to 4 days": "A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks." and this, 2 days later *on 16th Nov when no cooling was showing in that time frame: "......something changing on or around the end of Nov/ early Dec". Now you are saying "November is not in my time frame for the cold incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the first week" If you keep saying it will get cold and putting the date of the cold back every time it doesn't happen, I can guarantee that your forecast of cold will be correct at some time this winter. I agree with you; it will get cold at some time. So in saying in your latest thread that you have 80% confidence in a mild November, when the actual forecast charts show it that way right now, you are not copying someone else's forecast and maybe offering up a little plagiarism? I would be keen to hear of your career, your qualifications,and your actual daytime job. I have only just joined this Newsgroup, and I have seen (by looking back over the many previous months) that all you seem to like to do is contradict everyone who posts decent Met Theory (Maybe as some sort of insecurity complex) and question their methods, without actually putting forward anything other than what others are forecasting. Try being original, and see what a rush you might get from it. Remember, a forecast is only a forecast, made with the best data and knowledge at the time, and is in no way a promise. Do not disrespect other's information, you will only make enemies. Understanding is the victor over naivity and ignorance, and the conjurer of much original thought. Why don't you actually become a forecaster or Physics/Weather Model expert, before you tread on the toes of those of us who actually do have the career and qualifications to back up our research, predictions and Model Analysis. You refused to answer my question previously about whether you work in a large glass building in Devon,...so I will make a very qualified and educated guess that you do not, or if you do, you are not in any way part of the large cogs of that or any similar organisation, and perhaps are only a wannabe minnow. Send me a list of your Qualifications and career, and maybe you could reverse my thoughts. Until then, I shall treat everything you suggest politely, but with considerable doubt as to your understanding. When it comes to it, you don't know the people you are disrespecting or anything about their provenance or history. If Isaac Newton and Ptolemy were on this Newsgroup, you would probably have a go at them too, and try to undermine their ideas and research/ comments too. Be careful, the giants on who's shoulders you are standing, may well not regard you with much more than the feelings of a man who has an itch. I may not choose to remain in this Newsgroup, and continue instead on those in a more conducive Scientific Institutional environment, where the only comments made are constructive, not destructive. Neo |
#26
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
i did warn you with a troll alert
please place "it" in your ignore or killfile keep posting, much appreciated neo...dont let shrek run you off this newsgroup On 17/11/2011 10:59 PM, Neo wrote: HI Neo. You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3 to 4 days": "A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks." and this, 2 days later on 16th Nov when no cooling was showing in that time frame: "......something changing on or around the end of Nov/ early Dec". Now you are saying "November is not in my time frame for the cold incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the first week" If you keep saying it will get cold and putting the date of the cold back every time it doesn't happen, I can guarantee that your forecast of cold will be correct at some time this winter. I agree with you; it will get cold at some time. So in saying in your latest thread that you have 80% confidence in a mild November, when the actual forecast charts show it that way right now, you are not copying someone else's forecast and maybe offering up a little plagiarism? I would be keen to hear of your career, your qualifications,and your actual daytime job. I have only just joined this Newsgroup, and I have seen (by looking back over the many previous months) that all you seem to like to do is contradict everyone who posts decent Met Theory (Maybe as some sort of insecurity complex) and question their methods, without actually putting forward anything other than what others are forecasting. Try being original, and see what a rush you might get from it. Remember, a forecast is only a forecast, made with the best data and knowledge at the time, and is in no way a promise. Do not disrespect other's information, you will only make enemies. Understanding is the victor over naivity and ignorance, and the conjurer of much original thought. Why don't you actually become a forecaster or Physics/Weather Model expert, before you tread on the toes of those of us who actually do have the career and qualifications to back up our research, predictions and Model Analysis. You refused to answer my question previously about whether you work in a large glass building in Devon,...so I will make a very qualified and educated guess that you do not, or if you do, you are not in any way part of the large cogs of that or any similar organisation, and perhaps are only a wannabe minnow. Send me a list of your Qualifications and career, and maybe you could reverse my thoughts. Until then, I shall treat everything you suggest politely, but with considerable doubt as to your understanding. When it comes to it, you don't know the people you are disrespecting or anything about their provenance or history. If Isaac Newton and Ptolemy were on this Newsgroup, you would probably have a go at them too, and try to undermine their ideas and research/ comments too. Be careful, the giants on who's shoulders you are standing, may well not regard you with much more than the feelings of a man who has an itch. I may not choose to remain in this Newsgroup, and continue instead on those in a more conducive Scientific Institutional environment, where the only comments made are constructive, not destructive. Neo |
#27
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
In message , The Texican
writes i did warn you with a troll alert please place "it" in your ignore or killfile keep posting, much appreciated neo...dont let shrek run you off this newsgroup And you certainly know a troll when it appears Mr KY. -- Jim Kewley |
#28
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
"Neo" wrote in message
... HI Neo. You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3 to 4 days": Neo Paul has established himself as the newsgroup's resident "debunker" or, as some might even put it, the thought police! He raised very valid points himself about the integrity or credibility of certain forecasters who you will see mentioned now and again on this newsgroup. These are the amateur money-making headline spinners who, when they're wrong, will never admit to it. These "charlatan" forecasters are legends in their own mind and their forecast accuracy is dubious except to themselves. I don't think you're in that category and, having only started posting to this newsgroup, I think you should be given the time and place to express your thoughts and establish your own credentials further before what is basically now seen as a judgement. I wouldn't be brave enough, or skilled enough, to try and forecast anything beyond the 5-day limit myself. When others do I hope to see tat they will expand on their thoughts; give clear reasoning and when or if things go awry that they can acknowledge that an learn from it. Carry on posting however be prepared for what will hopefully be constructive criticism (or praise). That's how it should be I imagine. Good luck Neo. Joe |
#29
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Nov 15, 8:46*am, Adam Lea wrote:
Every single time I try to grow my own food it either gets destroyed by unusual weather conditions or a major pest infestation. That is a by-product of monoculturalism. Think of it as giving back to the planet what the supermarkets take away. You can't have your cake at less than fair trade market price and eat it for nothing too. |
#30
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Nov 18, 7:22*am, "Joe Whyte" wrote:
"Neo" *wrote in message ... HI Neo. You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3 to 4 days": Neo Paul has established himself as the newsgroup's resident "debunker" or, as some might even put it, the thought police! He raised very valid points himself about the integrity or credibility of certain forecasters who you will see mentioned now and again on this newsgroup. These are the amateur money-making headline spinners who, when they're wrong, will never admit to it. These "charlatan" forecasters are legends in their own mind and their forecast accuracy is dubious except to themselves. I don't think you're in that category and, having only started posting to this newsgroup, I think you should be given the time and place to express your thoughts and establish your own credentials further before what is basically now seen as a judgement. I wouldn't be brave enough, or skilled enough, to try and forecast anything beyond the 5-day limit myself. When others do I hope to see tat they will expand on their thoughts; give clear reasoning and when or if things go awry that they can acknowledge that an learn from it. Carry on posting however be prepared for what will hopefully be constructive criticism (or praise). That's how it should be I imagine. Good luck Neo. Joe "debunker", heh. I've been called a lot worse! *)) That's how it will be. Joe's right in many ways. I base forecasting capability of outcome success and I never judge a forecast by what is written in it; no matter how believable it sounds. When someone foecasts something and it doesn't happen, oddly, I doubt the skill of the forecaster and I monitor others' forecasts. If a forecast goes wrong, I like the forecaster to admit that and explain why. Your discussion thread said the models would change to show very different conditions within 3-4 days, from 13th Nov, implying colder conditions would establish themselves within a 16-day period i.e. before the end of November. They haven't changed at all and continue to show fairly mild weather. Instead instead of offering an explanation, you've just re-forecast the establishment of any cold back into December and started to give me a little grief instead. Monitoring others' forecasts doesn't seem to go down well, for some reason. I don't think anyone likes having their forecasts monitored, they'd generally rather write them, often full of meteorological language, but the proposed reasons seldom (and I mean seldom) have the positive (and usually cold) outcome they have proposed. That can lead to the forecaster turning a little sour when I say they were wrong and ask them why. If you wish to forecast, then achieve accuracy and I'll be the first to praise; promise. The regular posters know me well here and my google profile will give you all the information you need. Perhaps you'd like to introduce yourself and tell the source of your "information", as all we know about you is your pseudonym. I live in Dawlish, hence my name and my name is Paul. Good luck Neo. |
Reply |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Forum | |||
The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3 to 4 days. | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Climate Models and Their Evaluation - Executive Summary | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
How often do UKMO update their forecast on their website | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Climatologists discover Biblical Flood in their Climate Models | sci.geo.meteorology (Meteorology) | |||
What ambulance chasing lawyer did Belfort hire to further harass one of their employees? Can anyone provide their name and information? This guy must not have any work, or be desperate for business! I bet he is telling Belfort that they have such | sci.geo.meteorology (Meteorology) |