occupation, usenet resident troll
1500 posts a month, branding everyone a nutter, troll, denier, racist

look it up yourself, google never lies.

On 16/11/2011 1:01 PM, Neo wrote:

Hi Dawlish,

What is your source of the interpreted information?
Or do you derive that from looking at some of the publicly available
output?
Do you work at a large glass building in Devon, hence your screen
name?


Neo


--- Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net/ - Complaints to ---

On Nov 16, 1:35*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 16, 1:01*pm, Neo wrote:





On Nov 16, 8:37*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 16, 8:30*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 13, 4:20*pm, Neo wrote:

Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently
shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold),
just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago....Now
thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period
outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid
the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks.

The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically
unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the
variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop
for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes
clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This
time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period.

Neo

I kept an eye on them. Nothing extra-specially cold 3 days on, Neo;
just the possibility of the high pressure that looked like it might
settle to our S/SE, now looking like it may settle over the UK. Just
looks like a slow and steady descent into early winter, with a little
cooler temperatures, but with them staying pretty average really and
the possibility of some frog and fost if the skies clear. 8))

See if the model agreement about the position of the high pressure
lasts to tonight.

Just as an addition to the last comment; neither the gfs 00z. nor the
ECM 12z from yesterday back the establishment of a static high
pressure over the UK at 10 days and we may well see the models change
back to a more zonal outlook during today. There's nothing
particularly cold about the ensemble means of either model.

Hi Dawlish,

What is your source of the interpreted information?
Or do you derive that from looking at some of the publicly available
output?
Do you work at a large glass building in Devon, hence your screen
name?

Something I have seen in the model outputs (Might have been be an
outlier a few days ago, but a few more than one now suggest this)
suggests something changing on or around the end of Nov/early Dec.
It suggests a cold NNW incursion as low pressure/cold front sinks SE
from a temporary mobile W scenario. This followed by rising pressure
across the far N of the UK, giving some N, then NE winds. The high
then becomes slow moving just to the N of the UK, and may even link
with the high over towards Finland eventually.
The info would suggest normal temps just ahead of this event, with any
rainfall reverting to snow on scottish mountains, followed by a cold
regime, especially for the N and E of the UK.
Low pressure begins to affect the Med area/S Europe, with unsettled
conditions for many down there.

Looks like maybe we will see the changes take effect as December draws
in. Can't be any worse that last year, whatever happens.

I also wonder if the upper atmospheric cooling might be behind some
models hinting at this...as not all models incorporate anything too
much above the Jet levels in their longer term variables...it is still
early days in that area of research even now,

Just a thought.

Cheers

Neo- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I agree the models could always change. Indeed, at 2 weeks, the odds
are they probably will. Nothing showing at present however, that I can
see and it certainly didn't change in yout initial 3/4 day suggested
period. I see you are now suggesting the end of November. Are you
trying to look in the 10-16 day period here on the gfs, or do have
access to some non-publically avainlable data. If so. What is it?

There appears to be nothing unusual happening in the stratosphere.

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktue...w/wdiag/ts.php

Recent research suggests that SSW events may influence NH weather. I'm
not aware of reearch that shows that stratospheric cooling causes any
changes at surface levels, but I'd be interested to see a link.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Nothing showing cold on the 00z gfs, or ECM. This will probably end up
a very warm November.

On Nov 17, 6:54*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 16, 1:35*pm, Dawlish wrote:



On Nov 16, 1:01*pm, Neo wrote:

On Nov 16, 8:37*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 16, 8:30*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 13, 4:20*pm, Neo wrote:

Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently
shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold),
just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago...Now
thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period
outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid
the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks.

The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically
unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the
variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop
for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes
clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This
time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period.

Neo

I kept an eye on them. Nothing extra-specially cold 3 days on, Neo;
just the possibility of the high pressure that looked like it might
settle to our S/SE, now looking like it may settle over the UK. Just
looks like a slow and steady descent into early winter, with a little
cooler temperatures, but with them staying pretty average really and
the possibility of some frog and fost if the skies clear. 8))

See if the model agreement about the position of the high pressure
lasts to tonight.

Just as an addition to the last comment; neither the gfs 00z. nor the
ECM 12z from yesterday back the establishment of a static high
pressure over the UK at 10 days and we may well see the models change
back to a more zonal outlook during today. There's nothing
particularly cold about the ensemble means of either model.

Hi Dawlish,

What is your source of the interpreted information?
Or do you derive that from looking at some of the publicly available
output?
Do you work at a large glass building in Devon, hence your screen
name?

Something I have seen in the model outputs (Might have been be an
outlier a few days ago, but a few more than one now suggest this)
suggests something changing on or around the end of Nov/early Dec.
It suggests a cold NNW incursion as low pressure/cold front sinks SE
from a temporary mobile W scenario. This followed by rising pressure
across the far N of the UK, giving some N, then NE winds. The high
then becomes slow moving just to the N of the UK, and may even link
with the high over towards Finland eventually.
The info would suggest normal temps just ahead of this event, with any
rainfall reverting to snow on scottish mountains, followed by a cold
regime, especially for the N and E of the UK.
Low pressure begins to affect the Med area/S Europe, with unsettled
conditions for many down there.

Looks like maybe we will see the changes take effect as December draws
in. Can't be any worse that last year, whatever happens.

I also wonder if the upper atmospheric cooling might be behind some
models hinting at this...as not all models incorporate anything too
much above the Jet levels in their longer term variables...it is still
early days in that area of research even now,

Just a thought.

Cheers

Neo- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I agree the models could always change. Indeed, at 2 weeks, the odds
are they probably will. Nothing showing at present however, that I can
see and it certainly didn't change in yout initial 3/4 day suggested
period. I see you are now suggesting the end of November. Are you
trying to look in the 10-16 day period here on the gfs, or do have
access to some non-publically avainlable data. If so. What is it?

There appears to be nothing unusual happening in the stratosphere.

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktue...w/wdiag/ts.php

Recent research suggests that SSW events may influence NH weather. I'm
not aware of reearch that shows that stratospheric cooling causes any
changes at surface levels, but I'd be interested to see a link.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Nothing showing cold on the 00z gfs, or ECM. This will probably end up
a very warm November.

November is not in my time frame for the cold incursion...that's
December...specifically transitional during the first week.
November will be mild, purely because it has been well over average up
to and including day 17, and the S winds continue for now.

Neo

On Nov 17, 11:01*am, Neo wrote:
On Nov 17, 6:54*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Nov 16, 1:35*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 16, 1:01*pm, Neo wrote:

On Nov 16, 8:37*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 16, 8:30*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 13, 4:20*pm, Neo wrote:

Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently
shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold),
just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago...Now
thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period
outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid
the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks.

The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically
unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the
variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop
for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes
clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This
time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period.

Neo

I kept an eye on them. Nothing extra-specially cold 3 days on, Neo;
just the possibility of the high pressure that looked like it might
settle to our S/SE, now looking like it may settle over the UK. Just
looks like a slow and steady descent into early winter, with a little
cooler temperatures, but with them staying pretty average really and
the possibility of some frog and fost if the skies clear. 8))

See if the model agreement about the position of the high pressure
lasts to tonight.

Just as an addition to the last comment; neither the gfs 00z. nor the
ECM 12z from yesterday back the establishment of a static high
pressure over the UK at 10 days and we may well see the models change
back to a more zonal outlook during today. There's nothing
particularly cold about the ensemble means of either model.

Hi Dawlish,

What is your source of the interpreted information?
Or do you derive that from looking at some of the publicly available
output?
Do you work at a large glass building in Devon, hence your screen
name?

Something I have seen in the model outputs (Might have been be an
outlier a few days ago, but a few more than one now suggest this)
suggests something changing on or around the end of Nov/early Dec.
It suggests a cold NNW incursion as low pressure/cold front sinks SE
from a temporary mobile W scenario. This followed by rising pressure
across the far N of the UK, giving some N, then NE winds. The high
then becomes slow moving just to the N of the UK, and may even link
with the high over towards Finland eventually.
The info would suggest normal temps just ahead of this event, with any
rainfall reverting to snow on scottish mountains, followed by a cold
regime, especially for the N and E of the UK.
Low pressure begins to affect the Med area/S Europe, with unsettled
conditions for many down there.

Looks like maybe we will see the changes take effect as December draws
in. Can't be any worse that last year, whatever happens.

I also wonder if the upper atmospheric cooling might be behind some
models hinting at this...as not all models incorporate anything too
much above the Jet levels in their longer term variables...it is still
early days in that area of research even now,

Just a thought.

Cheers

Neo- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I agree the models could always change. Indeed, at 2 weeks, the odds
are they probably will. Nothing showing at present however, that I can
see and it certainly didn't change in yout initial 3/4 day suggested
period. I see you are now suggesting the end of November. Are you
trying to look in the 10-16 day period here on the gfs, or do have
access to some non-publically avainlable data. If so. What is it?

There appears to be nothing unusual happening in the stratosphere.

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktue...w/wdiag/ts.php

Recent research suggests that SSW events may influence NH weather. I'm
not aware of reearch that shows that stratospheric cooling causes any
changes at surface levels, but I'd be interested to see a link.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Nothing showing cold on the 00z gfs, or ECM. This will probably end up
a very warm November.

November is not in my time frame for the cold incursion...that's
December...specifically transitional during the first week.
November will be mild, purely because it has been well over average up
to and including day 17, and the S winds continue for now.

Neo- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

HI Neo.

You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the
title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3
to 4 days":

"A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the
cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks."

and this, 2 days later on 16th Nov when no cooling was showing in
that time frame: "......something changing on or around the end of Nov/
early Dec".

Now you are saying "November is not in my time frame for the cold
incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the
first week"

If you keep saying it will get cold and putting the date of the cold
back every time it doesn't happen, I can guarantee that your forecast
of cold will be correct at some time this winter. I agree with you; it
will get cold at some time.

HI Neo.

You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the
title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3
to 4 days":

"A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the
cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks."

and this, 2 days later *on 16th Nov when no cooling was showing in
that time frame: "......something changing on or around the end of Nov/
early Dec".

Now you are saying "November is not in my time frame for the cold
incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the
first week"

If you keep saying it will get cold and putting the date of the cold
back every time it doesn't happen, I can guarantee that your forecast
of cold will be correct at some time this winter. I agree with you; it
will get cold at some time.

So in saying in your latest thread that you have 80% confidence in a
mild November, when the actual forecast charts show it that way right
now, you are not copying someone else's forecast and maybe offering up
a little plagiarism?
I would be keen to hear of your career, your qualifications,and your
actual daytime job.
I have only just joined this Newsgroup, and I have seen (by looking
back over the many previous months) that all you seem to like to do is
contradict everyone who posts decent Met Theory (Maybe as some sort of
insecurity complex) and question their methods, without actually
putting forward anything other than what others are forecasting. Try
being original, and see what a rush you might get from it.

Remember, a forecast is only a forecast, made with the best data and
knowledge at the time, and is in no way a promise.
Do not disrespect other's information, you will only make enemies.
Understanding is the victor over naivity and ignorance, and the
conjurer of much original thought.

Why don't you actually become a forecaster or Physics/Weather Model
expert, before you tread on the toes of those of us who actually do
have the career and qualifications to back up our research,
predictions and Model Analysis.
You refused to answer my question previously about whether you work in
a large glass building in Devon,...so I will make a very qualified and
educated guess that you do not, or if you do, you are not in any way
part of the large cogs of that or any similar organisation, and
perhaps are only a wannabe minnow.

Send me a list of your Qualifications and career, and maybe you could
reverse my thoughts.
Until then, I shall treat everything you suggest politely, but with
considerable doubt as to your understanding.

When it comes to it, you don't know the people you are disrespecting
or anything about their provenance or history.
If Isaac Newton and Ptolemy were on this Newsgroup, you would probably
have a go at them too, and try to undermine their ideas and research/
comments too.

Be careful, the giants on who's shoulders you are standing, may well
not regard you with much more than the feelings of a man who has an
itch.

I may not choose to remain in this Newsgroup, and continue instead on
those in a more conducive Scientific Institutional environment, where
the only comments made are constructive, not destructive.

Neo

i did warn you with a troll alert
please place "it" in your ignore or killfile

keep posting, much appreciated neo...dont let shrek run you off this
newsgroup


On 17/11/2011 10:59 PM, Neo wrote:

HI Neo.

You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the
title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3
to 4 days":

"A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the
cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks."

and this, 2 days later on 16th Nov when no cooling was showing in
that time frame: "......something changing on or around the end of Nov/
early Dec".

Now you are saying "November is not in my time frame for the cold
incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the
first week"

If you keep saying it will get cold and putting the date of the cold
back every time it doesn't happen, I can guarantee that your forecast
of cold will be correct at some time this winter. I agree with you; it
will get cold at some time.

So in saying in your latest thread that you have 80% confidence in a
mild November, when the actual forecast charts show it that way right
now, you are not copying someone else's forecast and maybe offering up
a little plagiarism?
I would be keen to hear of your career, your qualifications,and your
actual daytime job.
I have only just joined this Newsgroup, and I have seen (by looking
back over the many previous months) that all you seem to like to do is
contradict everyone who posts decent Met Theory (Maybe as some sort of
insecurity complex) and question their methods, without actually
putting forward anything other than what others are forecasting. Try
being original, and see what a rush you might get from it.

Remember, a forecast is only a forecast, made with the best data and
knowledge at the time, and is in no way a promise.
Do not disrespect other's information, you will only make enemies.
Understanding is the victor over naivity and ignorance, and the
conjurer of much original thought.

Why don't you actually become a forecaster or Physics/Weather Model
expert, before you tread on the toes of those of us who actually do
have the career and qualifications to back up our research,
predictions and Model Analysis.
You refused to answer my question previously about whether you work in
a large glass building in Devon,...so I will make a very qualified and
educated guess that you do not, or if you do, you are not in any way
part of the large cogs of that or any similar organisation, and
perhaps are only a wannabe minnow.

Send me a list of your Qualifications and career, and maybe you could
reverse my thoughts.
Until then, I shall treat everything you suggest politely, but with
considerable doubt as to your understanding.

When it comes to it, you don't know the people you are disrespecting
or anything about their provenance or history.
If Isaac Newton and Ptolemy were on this Newsgroup, you would probably
have a go at them too, and try to undermine their ideas and research/
comments too.

Be careful, the giants on who's shoulders you are standing, may well
not regard you with much more than the feelings of a man who has an
itch.

I may not choose to remain in this Newsgroup, and continue instead on
those in a more conducive Scientific Institutional environment, where
the only comments made are constructive, not destructive.

Neo

In message , The Texican
writes
i did warn you with a troll alert
please place "it" in your ignore or killfile

keep posting, much appreciated neo...dont let shrek run you off this
newsgroup




And you certainly know a troll when it appears Mr KY.
--

Jim Kewley

"Neo" wrote in message
...


HI Neo.

You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the
title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3
to 4 days":


Neo

Paul has established himself as the newsgroup's resident "debunker" or, as
some might even put it, the thought police! He raised very valid points
himself about the integrity or credibility of certain forecasters who you
will see mentioned now and again on this newsgroup. These are the amateur
money-making headline spinners who, when they're wrong, will never admit to
it. These "charlatan" forecasters are legends in their own mind and their
forecast accuracy is dubious except to themselves.

I don't think you're in that category and, having only started posting to
this newsgroup, I think you should be given the time and place to express
your thoughts and establish your own credentials further before what is
basically now seen as a judgement.

I wouldn't be brave enough, or skilled enough, to try and forecast anything
beyond the 5-day limit myself. When others do I hope to see tat they will
expand on their thoughts; give clear reasoning and when or if things go awry
that they can acknowledge that an learn from it.

Carry on posting however be prepared for what will hopefully be constructive
criticism (or praise). That's how it should be I imagine.

Good luck Neo.

Joe

On Nov 15, 8:46*am, Adam Lea wrote:

Every single time I try to grow my own food it either gets destroyed by
unusual weather conditions or a major pest infestation.

That is a by-product of monoculturalism.
Think of it as giving back to the planet what the supermarkets take
away.

You can't have your cake at less than fair trade market price and eat
it for nothing too.

On Nov 18, 7:22*am, "Joe Whyte" wrote:
"Neo" *wrote in message

...

HI Neo.

You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the
title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3
to 4 days":

Neo

Paul has established himself as the newsgroup's resident "debunker" or, as
some might even put it, the thought police! He raised very valid points
himself about the integrity or credibility of certain forecasters who you
will see mentioned now and again on this newsgroup. These are the amateur
money-making headline spinners who, when they're wrong, will never admit to
it. These "charlatan" forecasters are legends in their own mind and their
forecast accuracy is dubious except to themselves.

I don't think you're in that category and, having only started posting to
this newsgroup, I think you should be given the time and place to express
your thoughts and establish your own credentials further before what is
basically now seen as a judgement.

I wouldn't be brave enough, or skilled enough, to try and forecast anything
beyond the 5-day limit myself. When others do I hope to see tat they will
expand on their thoughts; give clear reasoning and when or if things go awry
that they can acknowledge that an learn from it.

Carry on posting however be prepared for what will hopefully be constructive
criticism (or praise). That's how it should be I imagine.

Good luck Neo.

Joe

"debunker", heh. I've been called a lot worse! *)) That's how it
will be. Joe's right in many ways. I base forecasting capability of
outcome success and I never judge a forecast by what is written in it;
no matter how believable it sounds. When someone foecasts something
and it doesn't happen, oddly, I doubt the skill of the forecaster and
I monitor others' forecasts. If a forecast goes wrong, I like the
forecaster to admit that and explain why. Your discussion thread said
the models would change to show very different conditions within 3-4
days, from 13th Nov, implying colder conditions would establish
themselves within a 16-day period i.e. before the end of November.
They haven't changed at all and continue to show fairly mild weather.
Instead instead of offering an explanation, you've just re-forecast
the establishment of any cold back into December and started to give
me a little grief instead.

Monitoring others' forecasts doesn't seem to go down well, for some
reason. I don't think anyone likes having their forecasts monitored,
they'd generally rather write them, often full of meteorological
language, but the proposed reasons seldom (and I mean seldom) have the
positive (and usually cold) outcome they have proposed. That can lead
to the forecaster turning a little sour when I say they were wrong and
ask them why.

If you wish to forecast, then achieve accuracy and I'll be the first
to praise; promise. The regular posters know me well here and my
google profile will give you all the information you need. Perhaps
you'd like to introduce yourself and tell the source of your
"information", as all we know about you is your pseudonym. I live in
Dawlish, hence my name and my name is Paul. Good luck Neo.