On 18/11/11 08:08, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Nov 15, 8:46 am, Adam wrote:

Every single time I try to grow my own food it either gets destroyed by
unusual weather conditions or a major pest infestation.

That is a by-product of monoculturalism.
Think of it as giving back to the planet what the supermarkets take
away.

You can't have your cake at less than fair trade market price and eat
it for nothing too.

I can assure you my garden is not a monoculture.

My sentiments exactly. There are many here that follow the posts of the experienced meteorologists for advanced warning of "possible" extreme events. I for one, now 65, am still actively sailing for a living and take a very keen interest on any adverse sailing conditions. For instance, I have to sail 70 foot yacht from Palma to Sardinia in early December, and am already eyeing up the charts before booking my Easy Jet flight...

Please keep posting.




Mike McMillan

A very dry and warm Isle of Wight

On Nov 18, 7:22*am, "Joe Whyte" wrote:
"Neo" *wrote in message

...

HI Neo.

You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the
title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3
to 4 days":

Neo

Paul has established himself as the newsgroup's resident "debunker" or, as
some might even put it, the thought police! He raised very valid points
himself about the integrity or credibility of certain forecasters who you
will see mentioned now and again on this newsgroup. These are the amateur
money-making headline spinners who, when they're wrong, will never admit to
it. These "charlatan" forecasters are legends in their own mind and their
forecast accuracy is dubious except to themselves.

I don't think you're in that category and, having only started posting to
this newsgroup, I think you should be given the time and place to express
your thoughts and establish your own credentials further before what is
basically now seen as a judgement.

I wouldn't be brave enough, or skilled enough, to try and forecast anything
beyond the 5-day limit myself. When others do I hope to see tat they will
expand on their thoughts; give clear reasoning and when or if things go awry
that they can acknowledge that an learn from it.

Carry on posting however be prepared for what will hopefully be constructive
criticism (or praise). That's how it should be I imagine.

Good luck Neo.

Dawlish isn't a debunker. He is just hard of reading.
The OP posted that the models would change "in a few days", Dawlish
hasn't quite realised that a model isn't actual weather.

Or maybe there is something in the way that he puts things that I
missed?

Not being interested in upper air models or long range computer
runs...
Or anything Dawlish has to say.

On Nov 18, 8:31*am, Adam Lea wrote:
On 18/11/11 08:08, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On Nov 15, 8:46 am, Adam *wrote:

Every single time I try to grow my own food it either gets destroyed by
unusual weather conditions or a major pest infestation.

That is a by-product of monoculturalism.
Think of it as giving back to the planet what the supermarkets take
away.

You can't have your cake at less than fair trade market price and eat
it for nothing too.

I can assure you my garden is not a monoculture.

I have just bitten my tongue trying to be nice to you. For some of us
nice doesn't come easy.

If the world is groaning at what men do to it, it will come back and
bite us.

When most of the species of vegetarians in this country are denied a
meal, where the hell did you think they were going to feed their
children?

"Neo" wrote in message
...

HI Neo.

You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the
title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3
to 4 days":

"A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the
cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks."

and this, 2 days later on 16th Nov when no cooling was showing in
that time frame: "......something changing on or around the end of Nov/
early Dec".

Now you are saying "November is not in my time frame for the cold
incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the
first week"

If you keep saying it will get cold and putting the date of the cold
back every time it doesn't happen, I can guarantee that your forecast
of cold will be correct at some time this winter. I agree with you; it
will get cold at some time.

So in saying in your latest thread that you have 80% confidence in a
mild November, when the actual forecast charts show it that way right
now, you are not copying someone else's forecast and maybe offering up
a little plagiarism?
I would be keen to hear of your career, your qualifications,and your
actual daytime job.
I have only just joined this Newsgroup, and I have seen (by looking
back over the many previous months) that all you seem to like to do is
contradict everyone who posts decent Met Theory (Maybe as some sort of
insecurity complex) and question their methods, without actually
putting forward anything other than what others are forecasting. Try
being original, and see what a rush you might get from it.

Remember, a forecast is only a forecast, made with the best data and
knowledge at the time, and is in no way a promise.
Do not disrespect other's information, you will only make enemies.
Understanding is the victor over naivity and ignorance, and the
conjurer of much original thought.

Why don't you actually become a forecaster or Physics/Weather Model
expert, before you tread on the toes of those of us who actually do
have the career and qualifications to back up our research,
predictions and Model Analysis.
You refused to answer my question previously about whether you work in
a large glass building in Devon,...so I will make a very qualified and
educated guess that you do not, or if you do, you are not in any way
part of the large cogs of that or any similar organisation, and
perhaps are only a wannabe minnow.

Send me a list of your Qualifications and career, and maybe you could
reverse my thoughts.
Until then, I shall treat everything you suggest politely, but with
considerable doubt as to your understanding.

When it comes to it, you don't know the people you are disrespecting
or anything about their provenance or history.
If Isaac Newton and Ptolemy were on this Newsgroup, you would probably
have a go at them too, and try to undermine their ideas and research/
comments too.

Be careful, the giants on who's shoulders you are standing, may well
not regard you with much more than the feelings of a man who has an
itch.

I may not choose to remain in this Newsgroup, and continue instead on
those in a more conducive Scientific Institutional environment, where
the only comments made are constructive, not destructive.

Neo


===============================

Neo, just some points. (Dawlish) Paul does NOT work in the Met Office in
Exeter nor for any other weather institution. He has no formal
qualifications in weather forecasting just an interest. His day job, FWIW,
is that he is a private Ofsted Consultant. He has a web site which you can
find easily via Google using "paul garvey ofsted consultant" if you really
wish to find out more. Keep posting, it's always interesting to see other
points of view.

Cheers,

Will
--

"Mike McMillan" wrote in message
news:16103364.1499.1321605340840.JavaMail.geo-discussion-forums@yqff21...
My sentiments exactly. There are many here that follow the posts of the
experienced meteorologists for advanced warning of "possible" extreme
events. I for one, now 65, am still actively sailing for a living and take a
very keen interest on any adverse sailing conditions. For instance, I have
to sail 70 foot yacht from Palma to Sardinia in early December, and am
already eyeing up the charts before booking my Easy Jet flight...

Please keep posting.




Mike McMillan

A very dry and warm Isle of Wight
=================================

Hey Mike, if you want a chat before you sail or an "expert" view then let me
know (e-mail). I have done this for folk in my community before now. I ask
for no reward, helping folk is reward enough.

Best wishes,

Will )
--

On Nov 18, 8:45*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Neo" wrote in message

...





HI Neo.

You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the
title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3
to 4 days":

"A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the
cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks."

and this, 2 days later on 16th Nov when no cooling was showing in
that time frame: "......something changing on or around the end of Nov/
early Dec".

Now you are saying "November is not in my time frame for the cold
incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the
first week"

If you keep saying it will get cold and putting the date of the cold
back every time it doesn't happen, I can guarantee that your forecast
of cold will be correct at some time this winter. I agree with you; it
will get cold at some time.

So in saying in your latest thread that you have 80% confidence in a
mild November, when the actual forecast charts show it that way right
now, you are not copying someone else's forecast and maybe offering up
a little plagiarism?
I would be keen to hear of your career, your qualifications,and your
actual daytime job.
I have only just joined this Newsgroup, and I have seen (by looking
back over the many previous months) that all you seem to like to do is
contradict everyone who posts decent Met Theory (Maybe as some sort of
insecurity complex) and question their methods, without *actually
putting forward anything other than what others are forecasting. Try
being original, and see what a rush you might get from it.

Remember, a forecast is only a forecast, made with the best data and
knowledge at the time, and is in no way a promise.
Do not disrespect other's information, you will only make enemies.
Understanding is the victor over naivity and ignorance, and the
conjurer of much original thought.

Why don't you actually become a forecaster or Physics/Weather Model
expert, before you tread on the toes of those of us who actually do
have the career and qualifications to back up our research,
predictions and Model Analysis.
You refused to answer my question previously about whether you work in
a large glass building in Devon,...so I will make a very qualified and
educated guess that you do not, or if you do, you are not in any way
part of the large cogs of that or any similar organisation, and
perhaps are only a wannabe minnow.

Send me a list of your Qualifications and career, and maybe you could
reverse my thoughts.
Until then, I shall treat everything you suggest politely, but with
considerable doubt as to your understanding.

When it comes to it, you don't know the people you are disrespecting
or anything about their provenance or history.
If Isaac Newton and Ptolemy were on this Newsgroup, you would probably
have a go at them too, and try to undermine their ideas and research/
comments too.

Be careful, the giants on who's shoulders you are standing, may well
not regard you with much more than the feelings of a man who has an
itch.

I may not choose to remain in this Newsgroup, and continue instead on
those in a more conducive Scientific Institutional environment, where
the only comments made are constructive, not destructive.

Neo

===============================

Neo, just some points. (Dawlish) Paul does NOT work in the Met Office in
Exeter nor for any other weather institution. He has no formal
qualifications in weather forecasting just an interest. His day job, FWIW,
is that he is a private Ofsted Consultant. He has a web site which you can
find easily via Google using "paul garvey ofsted consultant" if you really
wish to find out more. Keep posting, it's always interesting to see other
points of view.

Cheers,

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

That's about right. None of it is secret. Will has been subject to
some monitoring by me in the past, as you may deduce; hence the
sourness. Same with Weatherlawyer, but he's truly deluded; Will isn't.
None of it was inaccurate monitoring and he killfiles me on occasions
when I show that the forecasts have not been accurate. Anyone whom
Will deems a possible "enemy" of mine is his friend.

Will Hand has a website which is easily googleable with Haytor
weather, or Lyneside weather. He is a professional, working at the
MetO, though not as a forecaster. He believes in Mysticism, is a
member of the Rosirucian order and wishes to promote Mysticism as a
scientific pursuit. Hence the creation of a new website "Sci-
mysticism". Google the Rosicrucians. It's eye-opening. Will believes
that astrology shouldn't be dismissed and that he has healed someone
by making a phone call to them. He makes occasionally strange claims
which don't sit comfortably with his BSc, or status as a
meteorologist, which he likes to remind us of, often. Will makes very
valuable contributions to the group and I've learned a lot from his
posts, but he feels he can forecast the seasonal weather in the UK.
I've shown that he can't, but he always writes interesting forecasts,
which some think are correct, because he's written them.

Always good to have a new group member Neo. Looking forward to your
posts. Introduce yourself, like I've asked. Tell us more about
yourself, as we've done, each other.

In article
,
Neo writes:
snip
I may not choose to remain in this Newsgroup,

That would be a pity.

and continue instead on
those in a more conducive Scientific Institutional environment, where
the only comments made are constructive, not destructive.

For that, you'll need to find a moderated group. I don't think that
you'll find a meteorological one on Usenet, but there may be a Web forum
that would meet your requirement.

(My experience of the letter pages even in quite respected scientific
journals suggests that even there many letters wouldn't meet your
criterion. It's surprising how worked up scientists can get.)
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
It's surprising how worked up scientists can get.)

Only when people are being stupid! :-)

Will
--

In article ,
Eskimo Will writes:
"John Hall" wrote in message
.. .
It's surprising how worked up scientists can get.)

Only when people are being stupid! :-)

But many scientists seem to define stupid as "anyone who doesn't agree
with me". (I'm not anti-scientist BTW. I was one myself, after a
fashion.)
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw