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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#51
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On Nov 13, 4:20*pm, Neo wrote:
Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold), just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago...Now thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks. The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period. Neo The models haven't changed, Neo. No colder conditions at the start of December are on the horizon. The ensembles are actually trending more towards a continuing Atlantic zonal scenario and the suggested northerly, then a sinking of the lows into Europe allowing easterlies to develop is now very unlikely during the first week of December. Will's snowflake also looks less and less likely with the 06z gfs, which is ticking upwards, in terms of the ensemble mean temperatures, at 10 days+. We'll lose the very mild weather, but we are not looking at below average temperatures at the start of December. Piers must be chewing on his middle knuckles by now, desperately hoping it will all change - blizzards on Dec 1/2 look extremely unlikely! What's happened? |
#52
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To summarise: It's early winter and it's warm therefore it will get
colder. -- Carlo Marx Winter does not start until 21 Dec, in the Northern Hemisphere. |
#53
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"Dawlish" wrote in message
... On Nov 13, 4:20 pm, Neo wrote: The models haven't changed, Neo. No colder conditions at the start of December are on the horizon. The ensembles are actually trending more towards a continuing Atlantic zonal scenario and the suggested northerly, then a sinking of the lows into Europe allowing easterlies to develop is now very unlikely during the first week of December. Will's snowflake also looks less and less likely with the 06z gfs, which is ticking upwards, in terms of the ensemble mean temperatures, at 10 days+. We'll lose the very mild weather, but we are not looking at below average temperatures at the start of December. Piers must be chewing on his middle knuckles by now, desperately hoping it will all change - blizzards on Dec 1/2 look extremely unlikely! What's happened? Paul, I detect an element of point-scoring amidst your otherwise reasonable post? If not, my apologies. However sometimes it does come across that way! Neo's assessment of Nov 13th now looks highly (no pun intended!) unlikely as per the synoptic pattern he described. The chance of a Greenland High Pressure, or any High pressure in or around that location, exerting an influence in the immediate or medium term does not seem likely. Until I see some greens (or even light blues) indicating proper height rises over Greenland I won't be expecting anything of the sort. 12z 21/11 9-panel http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.gif Having said that though there is a cooling on the way and the ensembles show that fairly markedly IMO. Colder conditions for early December certainly look on the cards, i.e. colder than what we have had with 12-15c temp now falling to something more normal or even slightly below at times, 7-8c? Ref. Dublin 12z 21/11 850hpA http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png Based on this set of ensembles I think it's more than reasonable for Will to make the call he has. Snow at his altitude would seem more than possible I would have though? As for Piers............don't get me started...........I'm sure there is some perfectly acceptable excuse or, as is the norm, the weather IS happening as he forecast. It's just in the wrong place!! ;-) Joe |
#54
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In article
, MahFL writes: To summarise: It's early winter and it's warm therefore it will get colder. -- Carlo Marx Winter does not start until 21 Dec, in the Northern Hemisphere. For meteorological purposes, the months of December, January and February are conventionally taken as winter. There seems no good reason from a weather point of view why the season should start at the Winter Solstice, since the first three weeks of December are on average a fair bit colder than the first three weeks of March. -- John Hall "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw |
#55
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On 21/11/2011 18:59, John Hall wrote:
For meteorological purposes, the months of December, January and February are conventionally taken as winter. There seems no good reason from a weather point of view why the season should start at the Winter Solstice, since the first three weeks of December are on average a fair bit colder than the first three weeks of March. That's because Mah is using the astronomical seasons (common in the USA I believe?), whilst we have a tendency to use the standard meteorological seasons of DJF, MAM, JJA, SON. These sort of fit reasonably well and is convenient but looking at how nature responds to the seasons around here, I regard mid-February onwards as spring until mid-May, then summer until mid-September. Autumn seems the shortest season with it being pretty much winter-like from mid-November (this month has been an exception). -- Nick G Otter Valley, Devon 83 m amsl http://www.ottervalley.co.uk |
#56
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On Nov 21, 6:43*pm, "Joe Whyte" wrote:
"Dawlish" *wrote in message ... On Nov 13, 4:20 pm, Neo wrote: The models haven't changed, Neo. No colder conditions at the start of December are on the horizon. The ensembles are actually trending more towards a continuing Atlantic zonal scenario and the suggested northerly, then a sinking of the lows into Europe allowing easterlies to develop is now very unlikely during the first week of December. Will's snowflake also looks less and less likely with the 06z gfs, which is ticking upwards, in terms of the ensemble mean temperatures, at 10 days+. We'll lose the very mild weather, but we are not looking at below average temperatures at the start of December. Piers must be chewing on his middle knuckles by now, desperately hoping it will all change - blizzards on Dec 1/2 look extremely unlikely! What's happened? Paul, I detect an element of point-scoring amidst your otherwise reasonable post? If not, my apologies. However sometimes it does come across that way! Neo's assessment of Nov 13th now looks highly (no pun intended!) unlikely as per the synoptic pattern he described. The chance of a Greenland High Pressure, or any High pressure in or around that location, exerting an influence in the immediate or medium term does not seem likely. Until I see some greens (or even light blues) indicating proper height rises over Greenland I won't be expecting anything of the sort. 12z 21/11 9-panelhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.gif Having said that though there is a cooling on the way and the ensembles show that fairly markedly IMO. Colder conditions for early December certainly look on the cards, i.e. colder than what we have had with 12-15c temp now falling to something more normal or even slightly below at times, 7-8c? Ref. Dublin 12z 21/11 850hpAhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png Based on this set of ensembles I think it's more than reasonable for Will to make the call he has. Snow at his altitude would seem more than possible I would have though? As for Piers............don't get me started...........I'm sure there is some perfectly acceptable excuse or, as is the norm, the weather IS happening as he forecast. It's just in the wrong place!! *;-) Joe Your apologies are accepted! *)) It's not point scoring, I'm just wondering where people go when they make forecasts that don't actually appear to be achieving the outcomes they were expecting........ You can be sure that Piers' forecast will be correct............when any analysis of it appears on his website! It could still happen, of course, it's not the start of December yet, but there will be others who are also chewing their fingernails about the current model output after their forecasts of cold at the start of December too. |
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