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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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Wow is all I can say, this is why I love winter with all its drama.
The deep low set to come over or close to northern Scotland is not even on the charts yet but it will develop explosively as a shallow wave is excited on the low-level baroclinic zone in the North Atlantic. This then phase locks with an upper trough and high PV coming south from west of Greenland and rapidly deepens late Wednesday into Thursday and is then steered by the jet towards Scotland. The depression looks like being warm cored meaning that close to the centre wet-bulb freezing levels will be up around 400 metres or so asl but deep cold air will be tucking in round it. Winds could well exceed 70 knots (hurricane force in northern Scotland) and as the cold air tucks in, blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales) are likely on hills above 200 metres asl bringing white-out conditions in the mountains. Given the warm core as part of the seclusion process the snow is likely to be of the wet sticky variety and hence poses a significant risk of ice accretion on power lines, especially Thursday evening when some truly horrific conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly with power cuts). The winds will also generate a surge down the North Sea which is being discussed elsewhere. The London barrier will be raised no doubt and Holland should worry. Now the cold front will sweep SEwards on Thursday, the main feature being a rapid fall of temperature with possibly a short spell of sleet/snow on its back edge, even on low ground in England. Before then though the air in the warm sector is quite mild and may give rise to temporary snow-melt in some upland areas. Then we have a frosty ridge on Friday. Meanwhile the very cold (exceptionally cold?) air over Greenland will continue to leak south lowering North Atlantic SSTs even more and push the baroclinic zone a notch further south meaning that the next rapidly deepening Atlantic low could slam further south into the UK early next week after some respite over the weekend (rain and hill snow but just normal wind). Further ahead I cannot see any end to this cold westerly zonality which will tend to get even colder with time due to lowering SSTs and the time of year! Phew, I think that's enough from me! Exciting cheers, Will -- |
#2
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Eskimo Will wrote:
Wow is all I can say, this is why I love winter with all its drama. The deep low set to come over or close to northern Scotland is not even on the charts yet but it will develop explosively as a shallow wave is excited on the low-level baroclinic zone in the North Atlantic. This then phase locks with an upper trough and high PV coming south from west of Greenland and rapidly deepens late Wednesday into Thursday and is then steered by the jet towards Scotland. The depression looks like being warm cored meaning that close to the centre wet-bulb freezing levels will be up around 400 metres or so asl but deep cold air will be tucking in round it. Winds could well exceed 70 knots (hurricane force in northern Scotland) and as the cold air tucks in, blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales) are likely on hills above 200 metres asl bringing white-out conditions in the mountains. Given the warm core as part of the seclusion process the snow is likely to be of the wet sticky variety and hence poses a significant risk of ice accretion on power lines, especially Thursday evening when some truly horrific conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly with power cuts). The winds will also generate a surge down the North Sea which is being discussed elsewhere. The London barrier will be raised no doubt and Holland should worry. Now the cold front will sweep SEwards on Thursday, the main feature being a rapid fall of temperature with possibly a short spell of sleet/snow on its back edge, even on low ground in England. Before then though the air in the warm sector is quite mild and may give rise to temporary snow-melt in some upland areas. Then we have a frosty ridge on Friday. Meanwhile the very cold (exceptionally cold?) air over Greenland will continue to leak south lowering North Atlantic SSTs even more and push the baroclinic zone a notch further south meaning that the next rapidly deepening Atlantic low could slam further south into the UK early next week after some respite over the weekend (rain and hill snow but just normal wind). Further ahead I cannot see any end to this cold westerly zonality which will tend to get even colder with time due to lowering SSTs and the time of year! Phew, I think that's enough from me! Exciting cheers, Will -- ------------------ Thanks Will. So Scotland back to the weather of bygone years. Winters seem to becoming "normal" again! Dave |
#3
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![]() hurricane force in northern Scotland truly horrific conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly with power cuts) blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales) Bring it on. Logs are chopped |
#4
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![]() "fred" wrote in message ... hurricane force in northern Scotland truly horrific conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly with power cuts) blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales) Bring it on. Logs are chopped That's the spirit :-) Seriously though, it could be quite nasty, even by Scottish standards, "enjoy it" if you can though. Will -- |
#5
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On Dec 6, 5:42*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"fred" wrote in message ... hurricane force in northern Scotland truly horrific *conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly with power cuts) blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales) Bring it on. Logs are chopped That's the spirit :-) Seriously though, it could be quite nasty, even by Scottish standards, "enjoy it" if you can though. Will -- I know. I trust you. I have already précised your synopsis to all our guys on the ground ( with a view to safe home - every night ) Fred |
#6
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Cheers Will, really enjoy reading these thorough assessments, great
stuff ! Paul C Brampton, Cumbria |
#7
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superb run down Will
keep up the good work On 06/12/2011 5:16 PM, Eskimo Will wrote: Wow is all I can say, this is why I love winter with all its drama. The deep low set to come over or close to northern Scotland is not even on the charts yet but it will develop explosively as a shallow wave is excited on the low-level baroclinic zone in the North Atlantic. This then phase locks with an upper trough and high PV coming south from west of Greenland and rapidly deepens late Wednesday into Thursday and is then steered by the jet towards Scotland. The depression looks like being warm cored meaning that close to the centre wet-bulb freezing levels will be up around 400 metres or so asl but deep cold air will be tucking in round it. Winds could well exceed 70 knots (hurricane force in northern Scotland) and as the cold air tucks in, blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales) are likely on hills above 200 metres asl bringing white-out conditions in the mountains. Given the warm core as part of the seclusion process the snow is likely to be of the wet sticky variety and hence poses a significant risk of ice accretion on power lines, especially Thursday evening when some truly horrific conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly with power cuts). The winds will also generate a surge down the North Sea which is being discussed elsewhere. The London barrier will be raised no doubt and Holland should worry. Now the cold front will sweep SEwards on Thursday, the main feature being a rapid fall of temperature with possibly a short spell of sleet/snow on its back edge, even on low ground in England. Before then though the air in the warm sector is quite mild and may give rise to temporary snow-melt in some upland areas. Then we have a frosty ridge on Friday. Meanwhile the very cold (exceptionally cold?) air over Greenland will continue to leak south lowering North Atlantic SSTs even more and push the baroclinic zone a notch further south meaning that the next rapidly deepening Atlantic low could slam further south into the UK early next week after some respite over the weekend (rain and hill snow but just normal wind). Further ahead I cannot see any end to this cold westerly zonality which will tend to get even colder with time due to lowering SSTs and the time of year! Phew, I think that's enough from me! Exciting cheers, Will -- |
#8
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On Tue, 6 Dec 2011 11:32:45 -0800 (PST), Paul Crabtree wrote:
Cheers Will, really enjoy reading these thorough assessments, great stuff ! Yeah, I like 'em as well but I'm not so keen with 1/3 of the house we are living in, whilst another 1/3 is being renovated, is reliant on electricty for heating. And another 1/3rd has a couple of raditors out of action so one bedroom is also electrically heated... I don't like ice storms, makes it really difficult to move about. Snow at least responds to a plough or blower. -- Cheers Dave. Nr Garrigill, Cumbria. 421m ASL. |
#9
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On Dec 6, 5:16*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
Exciting cheers, Sorry Will - I'd not seen this and posted my take on it in another thread. Richard |
#10
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![]() "Richard Dixon" wrote in message ... On Dec 6, 5:16 pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote: Exciting cheers, Sorry Will - I'd not seen this and posted my take on it in another thread. Richard ============= Hey Richard, no need to apologise. What you posted was most interesting, especially in the context of what you said yesterday with Denmark in the firing line. Interesting times! Cheers, Will -- |
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