Wow is all I can say, this is why I love winter with all its drama.

The deep low set to come over or close to northern Scotland is not even on
the charts yet but it will develop explosively as a shallow wave is excited
on the low-level baroclinic zone in the North Atlantic. This then phase
locks with an upper trough and high PV coming south from west of Greenland
and rapidly deepens late Wednesday into Thursday and is then steered by the
jet towards Scotland. The depression looks like being warm cored meaning
that close to the centre wet-bulb freezing levels will be up around 400
metres or so asl but deep cold air will be tucking in round it. Winds could
well exceed 70 knots (hurricane force in northern Scotland) and as the cold
air tucks in, blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales) are likely on hills
above 200 metres asl bringing white-out conditions in the mountains. Given
the warm core as part of the seclusion process the snow is likely to be of
the wet sticky variety and hence poses a significant risk of ice accretion
on power lines, especially Thursday evening when some truly horrific
conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly
with power cuts). The winds will also generate a surge down the North Sea
which is being discussed elsewhere. The London barrier will be raised no
doubt and Holland should worry.

Now the cold front will sweep SEwards on Thursday, the main feature being a
rapid fall of temperature with possibly a short spell of sleet/snow on its
back edge, even on low ground in England. Before then though the air in the
warm sector is quite mild and may give rise to temporary snow-melt in some
upland areas. Then we have a frosty ridge on Friday.

Meanwhile the very cold (exceptionally cold?) air over Greenland will
continue to leak south lowering North Atlantic SSTs even more and push the
baroclinic zone a notch further south meaning that the next rapidly
deepening Atlantic low could slam further south into the UK early next week
after some respite over the weekend (rain and hill snow but just normal
wind). Further ahead I cannot see any end to this cold westerly zonality
which will tend to get even colder with time due to lowering SSTs and the
time of year!

Phew, I think that's enough from me!

Exciting cheers,

Will
--

Eskimo Will wrote:
Wow is all I can say, this is why I love winter with all its drama.

The deep low set to come over or close to northern Scotland is not even
on the charts yet but it will develop explosively as a shallow wave is
excited on the low-level baroclinic zone in the North Atlantic. This
then phase locks with an upper trough and high PV coming south from west
of Greenland and rapidly deepens late Wednesday into Thursday and is
then steered by the jet towards Scotland. The depression looks like
being warm cored meaning that close to the centre wet-bulb freezing
levels will be up around 400 metres or so asl but deep cold air will be
tucking in round it. Winds could well exceed 70 knots (hurricane force
in northern Scotland) and as the cold air tucks in, blizzards (heavy
snow and severe gales) are likely on hills above 200 metres asl bringing
white-out conditions in the mountains. Given the warm core as part of
the seclusion process the snow is likely to be of the wet sticky variety
and hence poses a significant risk of ice accretion on power lines,
especially Thursday evening when some truly horrific conditions are
likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly with power
cuts). The winds will also generate a surge down the North Sea which is
being discussed elsewhere. The London barrier will be raised no doubt
and Holland should worry.

Now the cold front will sweep SEwards on Thursday, the main feature
being a rapid fall of temperature with possibly a short spell of
sleet/snow on its back edge, even on low ground in England. Before then
though the air in the warm sector is quite mild and may give rise to
temporary snow-melt in some upland areas. Then we have a frosty ridge on
Friday.

Meanwhile the very cold (exceptionally cold?) air over Greenland will
continue to leak south lowering North Atlantic SSTs even more and push
the baroclinic zone a notch further south meaning that the next rapidly
deepening Atlantic low could slam further south into the UK early next
week after some respite over the weekend (rain and hill snow but just
normal wind). Further ahead I cannot see any end to this cold westerly
zonality which will tend to get even colder with time due to lowering
SSTs and the time of year!

Phew, I think that's enough from me!

Exciting cheers,

Will
--


------------------
Thanks Will. So Scotland back to the weather of bygone years. Winters
seem to becoming "normal" again!
Dave

hurricane force in northern Scotland

truly horrific conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the
northern Isles (possibly
with power cuts)

blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales)

Bring it on.

Logs are chopped

"fred" wrote in message
...

hurricane force in northern Scotland

truly horrific conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the
northern Isles (possibly
with power cuts)

blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales)

Bring it on.

Logs are chopped

That's the spirit :-)
Seriously though, it could be quite nasty, even by Scottish standards,
"enjoy it" if you can though.

Will
--

On Dec 6, 5:42*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"fred" wrote in message

...



hurricane force in northern Scotland

truly horrific *conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the
northern Isles (possibly
with power cuts)

blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales)

Bring it on.

Logs are chopped

That's the spirit :-)
Seriously though, it could be quite nasty, even by Scottish standards,
"enjoy it" if you can though.

Will
--

I know. I trust you.

I have already précised your synopsis to all our guys on the ground
( with a view to safe home - every night )

Fred

Cheers Will, really enjoy reading these thorough assessments, great
stuff !

Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria

superb run down Will

keep up the good work

On 06/12/2011 5:16 PM, Eskimo Will wrote:
Wow is all I can say, this is why I love winter with all its drama.

The deep low set to come over or close to northern Scotland is not even
on the charts yet but it will develop explosively as a shallow wave is
excited on the low-level baroclinic zone in the North Atlantic. This
then phase locks with an upper trough and high PV coming south from west
of Greenland and rapidly deepens late Wednesday into Thursday and is
then steered by the jet towards Scotland. The depression looks like
being warm cored meaning that close to the centre wet-bulb freezing
levels will be up around 400 metres or so asl but deep cold air will be
tucking in round it. Winds could well exceed 70 knots (hurricane force
in northern Scotland) and as the cold air tucks in, blizzards (heavy
snow and severe gales) are likely on hills above 200 metres asl bringing
white-out conditions in the mountains. Given the warm core as part of
the seclusion process the snow is likely to be of the wet sticky variety
and hence poses a significant risk of ice accretion on power lines,
especially Thursday evening when some truly horrific conditions are
likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly with power
cuts). The winds will also generate a surge down the North Sea which is
being discussed elsewhere. The London barrier will be raised no doubt
and Holland should worry.

Now the cold front will sweep SEwards on Thursday, the main feature
being a rapid fall of temperature with possibly a short spell of
sleet/snow on its back edge, even on low ground in England. Before then
though the air in the warm sector is quite mild and may give rise to
temporary snow-melt in some upland areas. Then we have a frosty ridge on
Friday.

Meanwhile the very cold (exceptionally cold?) air over Greenland will
continue to leak south lowering North Atlantic SSTs even more and push
the baroclinic zone a notch further south meaning that the next rapidly
deepening Atlantic low could slam further south into the UK early next
week after some respite over the weekend (rain and hill snow but just
normal wind). Further ahead I cannot see any end to this cold westerly
zonality which will tend to get even colder with time due to lowering
SSTs and the time of year!

Phew, I think that's enough from me!

Exciting cheers,

Will
--

On Tue, 6 Dec 2011 11:32:45 -0800 (PST), Paul Crabtree wrote:

Cheers Will, really enjoy reading these thorough assessments, great
stuff !

Yeah, I like 'em as well but I'm not so keen with 1/3 of the house we
are living in, whilst another 1/3 is being renovated, is reliant on
electricty for heating. And another 1/3rd has a couple of raditors
out of action so one bedroom is also electrically heated...

I don't like ice storms, makes it really difficult to move about.
Snow at least responds to a plough or blower.

--
Cheers Dave.
Nr Garrigill, Cumbria. 421m ASL.

On Dec 6, 5:16*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:

Exciting cheers,

Sorry Will - I'd not seen this and posted my take on it in another
thread.

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On Dec 6, 5:16 pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:

Exciting cheers,

Sorry Will - I'd not seen this and posted my take on it in another
thread.

Richard
=============

Hey Richard, no need to apologise. What you posted was most interesting,
especially in the context of what you said yesterday with Denmark in the
firing line. Interesting times!

Cheers,

Will
--