Today marks the tenth anniversary of these model interpretations. The first
can be seen he http://tinyurl.com/first-analysis

In the spirit of the first analysis, which was really more about the chances
of a White Christmas, there will be an "ensemble watch" section for the next
week.

Thanks to everyone who's been reading these over the past decade and I hope
to continue posting these for at least another decade!

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Wednesday.
Issued 0537, 10/12/11

The models show unrelenting zonality and, coupled with a strong jet, a high
chance of strong winds at some point as lows deepen explosively in our
vicinity. All areas are likely to see rain during the latter half of the
working week with a continuing risk of snow over higher ground in the north.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
Westerlies cover the UK, with lighter winds than of late as a weak ridge
approaches from the west. Tomorrow the winds become SW'lies due to a trough
to the west, followed by WSW'lies on Monday as the trough moves away to the
east. On Tuesday a low deepens explosively to the west of Scotland, leading
to SW'ly gales over the UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a strong zonal jet over the Atlantic and Biscay.
At the 500hPa level there are westerlies with a generally zonal flow over
western Europe. It's a similar picture on the other runs, which also show
strong zonality.
At the surface GFS brings a trough over eastern areas which leads to
WNW'lies over the UK. MetO has WSW'lies over the UK in association with a
weak trough, while ECM has a trough to the west with SW'lies for all. There
are WSW'lies with GEM and JMA, with a trough to the west and a low to the
north.

Evolution to day 7
ECM brings SW'lies on day 6 with a secondary low approaching from the WSW.
The low deepens over the North Sea on day 7, with westerlies across the UK
as a result.
Day 6 with GFS shows a deep low to the WNW with strong southerlies over the
UK. The low moves ENE'wards on day 7, leading to strong to gale force
WSW'lies and SW'lies over the UK.

Looking further afield
The UK lies under WNW'lies on day 8 with ECM with lows to the north and NE.
On day 9 a trough moves SE'wards, heralding NNW'lies in its wake. There are
further NNW'lies on day 10 as a ridge approaches the UK from the west.
GFS brings NW'lies on day 8 as a trough moves away to the east. On day 9
there's a weak ridge with WSW'lies, followed by more of the same on day 10.

Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres
GEFS shows zonality for the foreseeable future.

ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif
ECM continues to show a zonal pattern.

Christmas Day ensemble watch
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs...ode=0&runpara=
Wind directions over the UK of the 21 ensemble members:

W *******
WNW ****
WSW ***
NW **
SW **
NNW *
S *
SSE *

The ensembles show an overwhelmingly zonal picture with the only real
difference being whether winds are slightly north or south of westerly. Such
a mobile setup would mean only higher ground in the north would see a white
Christmas.

On 10/12/2011 05:42, Darren Prescott wrote:
Today marks the tenth anniversary of these model interpretations. The
first can be seen he http://tinyurl.com/first-analysis

Happy anniversary and may the interpretations have many happy returns.


--
Howard Neil

On Dec 10, 5:42*am, "Darren Prescott" wrote:
Today marks the tenth anniversary of these model interpretations. The first
can be seen hehttp://tinyurl.com/first-analysis

In the spirit of the first analysis, which was really more about the chances
of a White Christmas, there will be an "ensemble watch" section for the next
week.

Thanks to everyone who's been reading these over the past decade and I hope
to continue posting these for at least another decade!

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Wednesday.
Issued 0537, 10/12/11

The models show unrelenting zonality and, coupled with a strong jet, a high
chance of strong winds at some point as lows deepen explosively in our
vicinity. All areas are likely to see rain during the latter half of the
working week with a continuing risk of snow over higher ground in the north.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
Westerlies cover the UK, with lighter winds than of late as a weak ridge
approaches from the west. Tomorrow the winds become SW'lies due to a trough
to the west, followed by WSW'lies on Monday as the trough moves away to the
east. On Tuesday a low deepens explosively to the west of Scotland, leading
to SW'ly gales over the UK.

T+120 synopsishttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.pnghttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.pnghttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gifhttp://www..wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a strong zonal jet over the Atlantic and Biscay..
At the 500hPa level there are westerlies with a generally zonal flow over
western Europe. It's a similar picture on the other runs, which also show
strong zonality.
At the surface GFS brings a trough over eastern areas which leads to
WNW'lies over the UK. MetO has WSW'lies over the UK in association with a
weak trough, while ECM has a *trough to the west with SW'lies for all. There
are WSW'lies with GEM and JMA, with a trough to the west and a low to the
north.

Evolution to day 7
ECM brings SW'lies on day 6 with a secondary low approaching from the WSW..
The low deepens over the North Sea on day 7, with westerlies across the UK
as a result.
Day 6 with GFS shows a deep low to the WNW with strong southerlies over the
UK. The low moves ENE'wards on day 7, leading to strong to gale force
WSW'lies and SW'lies over the UK.

Looking further afield
The UK lies under WNW'lies on day 8 with ECM with lows to the north and NE.
On day 9 a trough moves SE'wards, heralding NNW'lies in its wake. There are
further NNW'lies on day 10 as a ridge approaches the UK from the west.
GFS brings NW'lies on day 8 as a trough moves away to the east. On day 9
there's a weak ridge with WSW'lies, followed by more of the same on day 10.

In article ,
Darren Prescott writes:
Today marks the tenth anniversary of these model interpretations.
The first can be seen he http://tinyurl.com/first-analysis
snip

Happy Anniversary! Thanks for all the effort that you've put in over the
years.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Darren Prescott writes:
Today marks the tenth anniversary of these model interpretations.
The first can be seen he http://tinyurl.com/first-analysis
snip

Happy Anniversary! Thanks for all the effort that you've put in over the
years.

OMG is it really 10 years!
Well done Darren.

Will
--

On 10/12/11 05:42, Darren Prescott wrote:

Today marks the tenth anniversary of these model interpretations.

I'll echo the other posters in saying thanks for your useful input. Much
appreciated!

"Darren Prescott" schreef:
: Today marks the tenth anniversary of these model interpretations.

Thanks also from me, Darren, for your efforts each day. I look forward to
the next 10 years. You obviously like the early mornings ...

Colin Youngs
Brussels