You know I was in the queue at Mark & Sparks today buying my daughter
a birthday cake, when the young man on the till said "sorry about the
wait". That annoyed me and I told him that my size was sod all to do
with him. He then asked if I wanted a 'bag for life' to which I
retorted I was only married for fifteen years so could I get my money
back?

Anyhow I digress: Joe *******i is frothing at the mouth about the
troposphere cooling at present and it's implication for a cold shot
across the northern hemisphere. We can only hope.

On Jan 5, 10:50*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
You know I was in the queue at Mark & Sparks today buying my daughter
a birthday cake, when the young man on the till said "sorry about the
wait". That annoyed me and I told him that my size was sod all to do
with him. He then asked if I wanted a 'bag for life' to which I
retorted I was only married for fifteen years so could I get my money
back?

Anyhow I digress: Joe *******i is frothing at the mouth about the
troposphere cooling at present and it's implication for a cold shot
across the northern hemisphere. We can only hope.

*******i: that's the kiss of death to that chance then...

On Jan 5, 11:44*pm, Scott W wrote:
On Jan 5, 10:50*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:

You know I was in the queue at Mark & Sparks today buying my daughter
a birthday cake, when the young man on the till said "sorry about the
wait". That annoyed me and I told him that my size was sod all to do
with him. He then asked if I wanted a 'bag for life' to which I
retorted I was only married for fifteen years so could I get my money
back?

Anyhow I digress: Joe *******i is frothing at the mouth about the
troposphere cooling at present and it's implication for a cold shot
across the northern hemisphere. We can only hope.

*******i: that's the kiss of death to that chance then...

No I totally disagree: He called our last two cold winter spells as
well as the USA. This year he never forecast any severe conditions and
so far that man has been spot on. He ahas also been proven more
correct than wrong on global temperatures far more so than pravda opps
I meant UKMO

Lawrence13 wrote:
On Jan 5, 11:44 pm, Scott W wrote:
On Jan 5, 10:50 pm, Lawrence13 wrote:

You know I was in the queue at Mark & Sparks today buying my daughter
a birthday cake, when the young man on the till said "sorry about the
wait". That annoyed me and I told him that my size was sod all to do
with him. He then asked if I wanted a 'bag for life' to which I
retorted I was only married for fifteen years so could I get my money
back?
Anyhow I digress: Joe *******i is frothing at the mouth about the
troposphere cooling at present and it's implication for a cold shot
across the northern hemisphere. We can only hope.
*******i: that's the kiss of death to that chance then...

No I totally disagree: He called our last two cold winter spells as
well as the USA.
--------------------------------------------
Sorry -but no he didn't- that's the problem with confirmational bias.
This is what he said for last winter - I knew it would come in handy one
day.

“AccuWeather.com Europe Winter Forecast for 2010-2011
By Heather Buchman, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist.
AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i is calling for
the core of winter in Europe this year to target the southern portion of
the continent, while areas from the United Kingdom into Scandinavia that
were hit hard last year catch a break. The major player in this winter's
forecast is the phenomenon called La Niña, when sea surface temperatures
across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal. Last
winter was characterized by an El Niño, which is the opposite of La Niña
with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.*******i highlights
that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Niño to a
La Niña, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of
latitude 40° north, which includes most of Europe.*******i highlights
that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Niño to a
La Niña, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of
latitude 40° north, which includes most of Europe.
This winter, *******i is generally going with this idea, though he is
expecting the above-normal warmth to be a bit farther north. On average,
above-normal temperatures are forecast for areas from the northern U.K.
into Scandinavia. Precipitation is generally expected to be below normal
in these areas.
While winter enthusiasts across northern Europe may be disappointed with
this forecast, many people will probably welcome a break after last
year's harsh winter.Farther south, *******i expects near-normal
temperatures from southern England into the northern Europe mainland and
colder-than-normal conditions from Italy and the Alps into the Balkans,
Ukraine and southern Russia.
Across northern Europe, snowfall and temperatures are expected to
average closer to normal in London while areas toward Glasgow and Dublin
experience slightly above-average temperatures and snowfall just a
little below normal.”

Couldn't really have been much further from the reality could it.

Dave

On Jan 6, 1:03*am, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Lawrence13 wrote:
On Jan 5, 11:44 pm, Scott W wrote:
On Jan 5, 10:50 pm, Lawrence13 wrote:

You know I was in the queue at Mark & Sparks today buying my daughter
a birthday cake, when the young man on the till said "sorry about the
wait". That annoyed me and I told him that my size was sod all to do
with him. He then asked if I wanted a 'bag for life' to which I
retorted I was only married for fifteen years so could I get my money
back?
Anyhow I digress: Joe *******i is frothing at the mouth about the
troposphere cooling at present and it's implication for a cold shot
across the northern hemisphere. We can only hope.
*******i: that's the kiss of death to that chance then...

No I totally disagree: He called our last two cold winter spells as
well as the USA.

--------------------------------------------
Sorry -but no he didn't- that's the problem with confirmational bias.
This is what he said for last winter - I knew it would come in handy one
day.

AccuWeather.com Europe Winter Forecast for 2010-2011
By Heather Buchman, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist.
AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i is calling for
the core of winter in Europe this year to target the southern portion of
the continent, while areas from the United Kingdom into Scandinavia that
were hit hard last year catch a break. The major player in this winter's
forecast is the phenomenon called La Ni a, when sea surface temperatures
across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal. Last
winter was characterized by an El Ni o, which is the opposite of La Ni a
with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.*******i highlights
that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Ni o to a
La Ni a, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of
latitude 40 north, which includes most of Europe.*******i highlights
that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Ni o to a
La Ni a, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of
latitude 40 north, which includes most of Europe.
This winter, *******i is generally going with this idea, though he is
expecting the above-normal warmth to be a bit farther north. On average,
above-normal temperatures are forecast for areas from the northern U.K.
into Scandinavia. Precipitation is generally expected to be below normal
in these areas.
While winter enthusiasts across northern Europe may be disappointed with
this forecast, many people will probably welcome a break after last
year's harsh winter.Farther south, *******i expects near-normal
temperatures from southern England into the northern Europe mainland and
colder-than-normal conditions from Italy and the Alps into the Balkans,
Ukraine and southern Russia.
Across northern Europe, snowfall and temperatures are expected to
average closer to normal in London while areas toward Glasgow and Dublin
experience slightly above-average temperatures and snowfall just a
little below normal.

Couldn't really have been much further from the reality could it.

Dave- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well done, Dave. I wish I had such diligence. As you say,
the forecast is hopeless and he has the implied circulation patterm
completely wrong. If I were that bad at seasonal forecasting, and I
am, I'd give it up, having only a normal sized ego. Why on earth do
people take any notice of him? He's at about the level of a
horoscope, i.e. right sometimes.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Jan 6, 2:50*am, Tudor Hughes wrote:
snipped, as this will be a long post

* * * * * Well done, Dave. *I wish I had such diligence. *As you say,
the forecast is hopeless and he has the implied circulation patterm
completely wrong. *If I were that bad at seasonal forecasting, and I
am, I'd give it up, having only a normal sized ego. *Why on earth do
people take any notice of him? *He's at about the level of a
horoscope, i.e. right sometimes.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

It's the onlyway to debunk these people Tudor. Here's *******i's
forecasting record from 2005-2009, This was *******i's forecast for
the previous year (remember, colder than average? Again, it couldn't
have been more wrong. Heforecast cold to the east of France and the
UK. He didn't, as Larry said, forecast our cold.

"TUESDAY 9/29 NOON (2009)
Interesting winter lurking for Europe.. biased cold in the east and a
battle in the west!
I have sent my private clientele an update on the U.S. winter, which
continues to ride along the lines I have been outlining for them since
early summer and we went public on July 15. One can't help but notice
more U.S. forecasters thinking that the U.S. winter in the South and
East is going to be cold. However, this is part of a bigger grand plan
I have on the winter which involves the big three of Northern
Hemisphere population areas that are affected by the change in
seasons, the Far East and Europe.
I think we may be able to call this the battle of Britain or France.
For these areas will be on the western side of what looks to be a cold
winter for much of eastern Europe... roughly from Germany east with a
center of colder than normal by more than 2c in the European part of
Russia. The theory is simple... a lot of blocking and a colder-looking
north Atlantic as temperatures are dropping throughout the north
Atlantic between 40 and 50 north while remains warm farther north.
Modeling is agreeing with the idea of enhanced blocking this year
which makes sense given the amount of SO2 that has been dumped into
the air over the last year by northern latitude volcanoes. In
addition, the ending of the era of warming is taking place as the PDO
has shifted cold. All this is co-ordinated with arguments for blocking
even as a weak El Nino, which is the result of many things and not the
driver... fades in the winter and spring.
While temperatures in the West may be near normal, they will do so by
greater-than-normal variance. I look for three or four strong
outbreaks of arctic air due to strong Scandinavian highs to push back
into the northwest part of Europe. The center of the cold, in the
middle of winter, will be farther east though.
As far as snow, the idea of Atlantic origin air masses trying to come
back into big highs may tip the balance for greater-than-normal snow
in the northwest in spite of a winter that is drier than normal in
France, England and Scandinavia. The real fun may be farther south,
where enhanced precip and the chance for colder-than-normal air could
mean snow to the Mediterranean once or twice this winter. I think the
skiing season will be great for the Alps with greater-than-normal snow
in those areas as precip is above normal and temps near or below
normal.
So we appear to have an "interesting" debate going on here as this
forecast would argue that most Europeans will think this winter was
colder, like last winter, than some other sources with more official
clout are saying. But time will tell. My take is a cold winter from
Germany east in Europe and a battle winding up near normal farther
west, but with some big ticket cold air masses that come back west
from the cold pole, which will be something that recalls days of cold
as far as eastern Europe cold".

The next set of forecasts were for the USA and not the UK, but it adds
to Dave's facts about his forecasting record from last year. Over a
year ago, I wrote that this should make anyone think twice before
praising Joe’s LRFs in the future and off goes Larry again.

I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual
outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a
commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read,
but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following
this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the
outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this,
they are a bigger charlatan than he is.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...d=Get+R eport

Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9

"2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA.

A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern
U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the
start of 2006, forecasters say.
AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls
for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the
eastern Great Lakes regions.
*******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active
hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other
similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i
concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were
typically cold and snowy in the Northeast."


Actual Outcome (NOAA)

December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation,
with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging
warmer than the long-term mean.
However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2
weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients;

Spin from Accuweather.

Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a
dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to
begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service
predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April
natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the
weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had
risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks
of advance warning of this opportunity.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a
warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people
do to gain business.

2006/7

Forecast:

*******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to-
February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder-
than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central
Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will
experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches
from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see
above-normal temperatures."

Actual Outcome (NOAA):

Winter:
December-February temperatures were near much above average for the
nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated
the winter average. For information on temperature records during the
season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had
predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average.

2007/8

Forecast:
"JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST
The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March
calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional
winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10
warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the
nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter;
especially in the second half of January and February when last winter
season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we
find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99
winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last
winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major
areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over
75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line
from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below
normal is over the Pacific Northwest."

Outcome:

November
14th warmest November on record (1895-2006).
Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region.
Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island)
were record warmest during November.
January
49th warmest January on record (1895-2007).
Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January
on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado
and Texas.
March
For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest
such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer
than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was
warmer in the 113-year national record.
Commentary:

Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at
the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle!

2008/9

Forecast.

"Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i
issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall
colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for
the East Coast. About the winter *******i says:
"It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average
temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in
the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a
while."
Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through
the week, see our full forecast.
*******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the
beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the
middle."

Outcome.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December
was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January
was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February
was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on
preliminary data.

Commentary:
Although the winter overall had very slightly below average
temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at
the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like
what he’d forecast.

4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to
criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK.

*))

2009/10. USA cold overall (correct), the NW and the NE to be coldest
with the central areas being closer to average. (totally incorrect,
the NW and the NE both had above average temperatures, whereas the
central areas were well below average. NE was warmer than average in
both Jan and Feb, colder in Dec)

Reasons – an El Nino peaking in Nov/Dec (didn’t happen – the peak
occurred Jan/Feb) and a change to a colder phase of the PDO. (The PDO
was just above av in December, wellpositive in January and ……….. in
Feb.

Also; the troposphere really does not appear to be cooling at present
and it must be noted that larry has not shown us any cherrypicked
references to AMSU temperatures for a while. This is why:

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

UAH temperatures show the troposphere has not cooled for 3 months,
despite La Nina conditions:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt December
was 0.13C http://www.drroyspencer.com/

Sorry about the long post folks, but this takes time and effort and if
someone doesn't do it, these seasonal forecasting charlatans (*******i
is not alone here) can just keep on trying to pull the wool over
people's eyes year after year.

Larry; time to stop trying to tell intelligent people that *******i
knows what he's talking about. He says what you want to hear and you
always listen.

Lawrence13 wrote:
On Jan 5, 11:44 pm, Scott W wrote:
On Jan 5, 10:50 pm, Lawrence13 wrote:

You know I was in the queue at Mark & Sparks today buying my daughter
a birthday cake, when the young man on the till said "sorry about the
wait". That annoyed me and I told him that my size was sod all to do
with him. He then asked if I wanted a 'bag for life' to which I
retorted I was only married for fifteen years so could I get my money
back?
Anyhow I digress: Joe *******i is frothing at the mouth about the
troposphere cooling at present and it's implication for a cold shot
across the northern hemisphere. We can only hope.
*******i: that's the kiss of death to that chance then...

No I totally disagree: He called our last two cold winter spells as
well as the USA. This year he never forecast any severe conditions and
so far that man has been spot on. He ahas also been proven more
correct than wrong on global temperatures far more so than pravda opps
I meant UKMO
----------------------------
I have nothing against Joe and his enthusiasm for cold spells. I'm no
different other than I'm sure he knows a lot more about meteorology than
I do. It's just long term forecasts aren't reliable by anyone and I
don't like it when he and others claim they were right when thay were wrong.
Dave

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
...
... Why on earth do
people take any notice of him? He's at about the level of a
horoscope, i.e. right sometimes.

Just like any other long-range forecaster.

On Jan 6, 10:03*am, "Gavino" wrote:
"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message

...

... Why on earth do
people take any notice of him? *He's at about the level of a
horoscope, i.e. right sometimes.

Just like any other long-range forecaster.

Just like dear old Piers who said last January 2011 would be "cruel".
It was only "cruel" toward cold weather lovers...

On Jan 6, 12:12*pm, Scott W wrote:

Just like dear old Piers who said last January 2011 would be "cruel".
It was only "cruel" toward cold weather lovers...

Let's not forget the icy December of 2011 too...

Richard