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#1
January 8th 12, 04:39 PM
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Mr Fish linking stratwarm to change to colder weather
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#2
January 8th 12, 05:36 PM
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Mr Fish linking stratwarm to change to colder weather
On Jan 8, 5:39*pm, Mark Chamberlain sent by Iphone
wrote: At least partly anyway http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...ryid=945;sess= Orsett, Essex Before anyone imparts even more received wisdom about SSWs - and this appears to be - may I refer to a post my Martin Rowley, which got me interested in SSWs and for which I've thanked him before. Thanks again! Before anyone goes accepting that received wisdom, I would heartily implore you to read the papers in Martin's MetO library list. Some are very relevant. None go to the extremes that Will does, or Michael Fish and all are *very* cautious in linking SSWs with individual surface conditions, except in very well developed major events. This one is not. This is very much a minor SSW event, as there has been no reversal in stratospheric winds, rather than a major one. Several papers investigate major events. None investigate minor ones, as far as I know. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...catalogue.html using the phrase:- "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" Search found ... 103 titles. I have extracted the titles of those which appear to be relevant to impacts of such events on the troposphe- [latest first/cut-off 1982] Dynamical response of low-latitude middle atmosphere to major sudden stratospheric warming events Sathishkumar, S. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, VOL. 71 NO. 8/9, 2009 Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events Martius, O. Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 36 NO. 14, 2009 Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the stratospheric sudden warming of 2006 Coy, L. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 66 NO. 2, 2009 Is there a statistical connection between stratospheric sudden warming and tropospheric blocking e ents? Taguchi, M. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 65 NO. 4, 2008 Effect of stratospheric sudden warming and vortex intensification on the tropospheric climate Kuroda, Y. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 113 NO. D15, 2008 The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian Weather Deng, S. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 25 NO. 5, 2008 What kind of stratospheric sudden warming propagates to the troposphere? Nakagawa, K.I. Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 4, 2006 Influence of stratospheric sudden warming on the equatorial troposphere Kodera, K. Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 6, 2006 The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002 Charlton, A.J. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, VOL. 131 NO. 609, 2005 A mechanistic model study of slowly propagating coupled stratosphere-troposphere variability Kodera, K. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 105 NO. D10, 2000 Tropospheric circulation changes associated with stratospheric sudden warmings: a case study Kodera, K. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 100 NO. D 6, 1995 The quasi-biennial oscillation and major stratospheric warmings: a three-dimensional model study Dameris, M. Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 2, 1990 Planetary waves modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) Maillard, A. Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 7/8, 1990 Sudden stratospheric warming and anomalous U.S. weather Douglas, D.A. Monthly Weather Review, VOL. 116 NO. 1, 1988 A numerical test of connections between the stratospheric sudden warming and the quasi-biennial oscillation Bridger, A.F.C. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 89 NO. D3, 1984 ----- artificial cutoff at 1982 ---- And of course, these couplings have been studied by researchers in Russia, Japan, China and France, to name but four, and to do an exhaustive search would require looking for works published in those languages - it has been an 'active' area of research over the last 10 years or so. A word of caution: don't rely on a 'general' internet search for this type of subject: you need to interrogate specialised catalogues, such as this one, or the AMS etc. Martin. As it is a .sci newsgroup, I think anyone proposing these kind of links should give an academic assessment of probabilities, based on research and not upon what they think should be the effects of an SSW event. I will happily change my mind and learn if I'm wrong. |
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#3
January 9th 12, 03:30 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Mr Fish linking stratwarm to change to colder weather
On Jan 8, 6:36*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 8, 5:39*pm, Mark Chamberlain sent by Iphone wrote: At least partly anyway http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...ryid=945;sess= Orsett, Essex Before anyone imparts even more received wisdom about SSWs - and this appears to be - may I refer to a post my Martin Rowley, which got me interested in SSWs and for which I've thanked him before. Thanks again! Before anyone goes accepting that received wisdom, I would heartily implore you to read the papers in Martin's MetO library list. Some are very relevant. None go to the extremes that Will does, or Michael Fish and all are *very* cautious in linking SSWs with individual surface conditions, except in very well developed major events. This one is not. This is very much a minor SSW event, as there has been no reversal in stratospheric winds, rather than a major one. Several papers investigate major events. None investigate minor ones, as far as I know. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...catalogue.html using the phrase:- "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" Search found ... 103 titles. I have extracted the titles of those which appear to be relevant to *impacts of such events on the troposphe- *[latest first/cut-off 1982] Dynamical response of low-latitude middle atmosphere to major sudden *stratospheric warming events *Sathishkumar, S. *Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, VOL. 71 NO. 8/9, *2009 Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events *Martius, O. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 36 NO. 14, 2009 Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the *stratospheric sudden warming of 2006 *Coy, L. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 66 NO. 2, 2009 Is there a statistical connection between stratospheric sudden warming *and tropospheric blocking e ents? *Taguchi, M. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 65 NO. 4, 2008 Effect of stratospheric sudden warming and vortex intensification on *the tropospheric climate *Kuroda, Y. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 113 NO. D15, 2008 The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian *Weather *Deng, S. *Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 25 NO. 5, 2008 What kind of stratospheric sudden warming propagates to the *troposphere? *Nakagawa, K.I. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 4, 2006 Influence of stratospheric sudden warming on the equatorial *troposphere *Kodera, K. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 6, 2006 The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern *hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002 *Charlton, A.J. *Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, VOL. 131 NO. *609, 2005 A mechanistic model study of slowly propagating coupled *stratosphere-troposphere variability *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 105 NO. D10, 2000 Tropospheric circulation changes associated with stratospheric sudden *warmings: a case study *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 100 NO. D 6, 1995 The quasi-biennial oscillation and major stratospheric warmings: a *three-dimensional model study *Dameris, M. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 2, 1990 Planetary waves modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) *Maillard, A. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 7/8, 1990 Sudden stratospheric warming and anomalous U.S. weather *Douglas, D.A. *Monthly Weather Review, VOL. 116 NO. 1, 1988 A numerical test of connections between the stratospheric sudden *warming and the quasi-biennial oscillation *Bridger, A.F.C. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 89 NO. D3, 1984 ----- artificial cutoff at 1982 ---- And of course, these couplings have been studied by researchers in *Russia, Japan, China and France, to name but four, and to do an *exhaustive search would require looking for works published in those *languages - it has been an 'active' area of research over the last 10 *years or so. A word of caution: don't rely on a 'general' internet search for this *type of subject: you need to interrogate specialised catalogues, such *as this one, or the AMS etc. Martin. As it is a .sci newsgroup, I think anyone proposing these kind of links should give an academic assessment of probabilities, based on research and not upon what they think should be the effects of an SSW event. I will happily change my mind and learn if I'm wrong. I'm sure with all his experience in forecasting Mr Fish would have considered all of the above, along with first principles? |
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#4
January 9th 12, 06:08 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Mr Fish linking stratwarm to change to colder weather
On Jan 9, 4:30*pm, Scott W wrote:
On Jan 8, 6:36*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Jan 8, 5:39*pm, Mark Chamberlain sent by Iphone wrote: At least partly anyway http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...ryid=945;sess= Orsett, Essex Before anyone imparts even more received wisdom about SSWs - and this appears to be - may I refer to a post my Martin Rowley, which got me interested in SSWs and for which I've thanked him before. Thanks again! Before anyone goes accepting that received wisdom, I would heartily implore you to read the papers in Martin's MetO library list. Some are very relevant. None go to the extremes that Will does, or Michael Fish and all are *very* cautious in linking SSWs with individual surface conditions, except in very well developed major events. This one is not. This is very much a minor SSW event, as there has been no reversal in stratospheric winds, rather than a major one. Several papers investigate major events. None investigate minor ones, as far as I know. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...catalogue.html using the phrase:- "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" Search found ... 103 titles. I have extracted the titles of those which appear to be relevant to *impacts of such events on the troposphe- *[latest first/cut-off 1982] Dynamical response of low-latitude middle atmosphere to major sudden *stratospheric warming events *Sathishkumar, S. *Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, VOL. 71 NO. 8/9, *2009 Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events *Martius, O. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 36 NO. 14, 2009 Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the *stratospheric sudden warming of 2006 *Coy, L. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 66 NO. 2, 2009 Is there a statistical connection between stratospheric sudden warming *and tropospheric blocking e ents? *Taguchi, M. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 65 NO. 4, 2008 Effect of stratospheric sudden warming and vortex intensification on *the tropospheric climate *Kuroda, Y. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 113 NO. D15, 2008 The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian *Weather *Deng, S. *Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 25 NO. 5, 2008 What kind of stratospheric sudden warming propagates to the *troposphere? *Nakagawa, K.I. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 4, 2006 Influence of stratospheric sudden warming on the equatorial *troposphere *Kodera, K. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 6, 2006 The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern *hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002 *Charlton, A.J. *Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, VOL. 131 NO. *609, 2005 A mechanistic model study of slowly propagating coupled *stratosphere-troposphere variability *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 105 NO. D10, 2000 Tropospheric circulation changes associated with stratospheric sudden *warmings: a case study *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 100 NO. D 6, 1995 The quasi-biennial oscillation and major stratospheric warmings: a *three-dimensional model study *Dameris, M. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 2, 1990 Planetary waves modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) *Maillard, A. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 7/8, 1990 Sudden stratospheric warming and anomalous U.S. weather *Douglas, D.A. *Monthly Weather Review, VOL. 116 NO. 1, 1988 A numerical test of connections between the stratospheric sudden *warming and the quasi-biennial oscillation *Bridger, A.F.C. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 89 NO. D3, 1984 ----- artificial cutoff at 1982 ---- And of course, these couplings have been studied by researchers in *Russia, Japan, China and France, to name but four, and to do an *exhaustive search would require looking for works published in those *languages - it has been an 'active' area of research over the last 10 *years or so. A word of caution: don't rely on a 'general' internet search for this *type of subject: you need to interrogate specialised catalogues, such *as this one, or the AMS etc. Martin. As it is a .sci newsgroup, I think anyone proposing these kind of links should give an academic assessment of probabilities, based on research and not upon what they think should be the effects of an SSW event. I will happily change my mind and learn if I'm wrong. I'm sure with all his experience in forecasting Mr Fish would have considered all of the above, along with first principles?- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - No Dawlish knows far better. Who could forget his fantastic forecasting succes rate. Trouble is most of the so called professional forecaster fear him and therefore ridicule his efforts down at William Hill's. |
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#5
January 9th 12, 09:57 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Mr Fish linking stratwarm to change to colder weather
On Jan 9, 7:08*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Jan 9, 4:30*pm, Scott W wrote: On Jan 8, 6:36*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Jan 8, 5:39*pm, Mark Chamberlain sent by Iphone wrote: At least partly anyway http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...ryid=945;sess= Orsett, Essex Before anyone imparts even more received wisdom about SSWs - and this appears to be - may I refer to a post my Martin Rowley, which got me interested in SSWs and for which I've thanked him before. Thanks again! Before anyone goes accepting that received wisdom, I would heartily implore you to read the papers in Martin's MetO library list.. Some are very relevant. None go to the extremes that Will does, or Michael Fish and all are *very* cautious in linking SSWs with individual surface conditions, except in very well developed major events. This one is not. This is very much a minor SSW event, as there has been no reversal in stratospheric winds, rather than a major one. Several papers investigate major events. None investigate minor ones, as far as I know. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...catalogue.html using the phrase:- "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" Search found ... 103 titles. I have extracted the titles of those which appear to be relevant to *impacts of such events on the troposphe- *[latest first/cut-off 1982] Dynamical response of low-latitude middle atmosphere to major sudden *stratospheric warming events *Sathishkumar, S. *Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, VOL. 71 NO. 8/9, *2009 Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events *Martius, O. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 36 NO. 14, 2009 Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the *stratospheric sudden warming of 2006 *Coy, L. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 66 NO. 2, 2009 Is there a statistical connection between stratospheric sudden warming *and tropospheric blocking e ents? *Taguchi, M. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 65 NO. 4, 2008 Effect of stratospheric sudden warming and vortex intensification on *the tropospheric climate *Kuroda, Y. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 113 NO. D15, 2008 The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian *Weather *Deng, S. *Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 25 NO. 5, 2008 What kind of stratospheric sudden warming propagates to the *troposphere? *Nakagawa, K.I. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 4, 2006 Influence of stratospheric sudden warming on the equatorial *troposphere *Kodera, K. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 6, 2006 The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern *hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002 *Charlton, A.J. *Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, VOL. 131 NO.. *609, 2005 A mechanistic model study of slowly propagating coupled *stratosphere-troposphere variability *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 105 NO. D10, 2000 Tropospheric circulation changes associated with stratospheric sudden *warmings: a case study *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 100 NO. D 6, 1995 The quasi-biennial oscillation and major stratospheric warmings: a *three-dimensional model study *Dameris, M. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 2, 1990 Planetary waves modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) *Maillard, A. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 7/8, 1990 Sudden stratospheric warming and anomalous U.S. weather *Douglas, D.A. *Monthly Weather Review, VOL. 116 NO. 1, 1988 A numerical test of connections between the stratospheric sudden *warming and the quasi-biennial oscillation *Bridger, A.F.C. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 89 NO. D3, 1984 ----- artificial cutoff at 1982 ---- And of course, these couplings have been studied by researchers in *Russia, Japan, China and France, to name but four, and to do an *exhaustive search would require looking for works published in those *languages - it has been an 'active' area of research over the last 10 *years or so. A word of caution: don't rely on a 'general' internet search for this *type of subject: you need to interrogate specialised catalogues, such *as this one, or the AMS etc. Martin. As it is a .sci newsgroup, I think anyone proposing these kind of links should give an academic assessment of probabilities, based on research and not upon what they think should be the effects of an SSW event. I will happily change my mind and learn if I'm wrong. I'm sure with all his experience in forecasting Mr Fish would have considered all of the above, along with first principles?- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - No Dawlish knows far better. *Who could forget his fantastic forecasting succes rate. Trouble is most of the so called professional forecaster *fear him and therefore ridicule his efforts down at William Hill's. You are out of your depth, as this involves looking at science and actual research, I'm afraid, |
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#6
January 10th 12, 11:00 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Mr Fish linking stratwarm to change to colder weather
On Jan 9, 10:57*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 9, 7:08*pm, Lawrence13 wrote: On Jan 9, 4:30*pm, Scott W wrote: On Jan 8, 6:36*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Jan 8, 5:39*pm, Mark Chamberlain sent by Iphone wrote: At least partly anyway http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...ryid=945;sess= Orsett, Essex Before anyone imparts even more received wisdom about SSWs - and this appears to be - may I refer to a post my Martin Rowley, which got me interested in SSWs and for which I've thanked him before. Thanks again! Before anyone goes accepting that received wisdom, I would heartily implore you to read the papers in Martin's MetO library list. Some are very relevant. None go to the extremes that Will does, or Michael Fish and all are *very* cautious in linking SSWs with individual surface conditions, except in very well developed major events. This one is not. This is very much a minor SSW event, as there has been no reversal in stratospheric winds, rather than a major one. Several papers investigate major events. None investigate minor ones, as far as I know. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...catalogue.html using the phrase:- "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" Search found ... 103 titles. I have extracted the titles of those which appear to be relevant to *impacts of such events on the troposphe- *[latest first/cut-off 1982] Dynamical response of low-latitude middle atmosphere to major sudden *stratospheric warming events *Sathishkumar, S. *Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, VOL. 71 NO.. 8/9, *2009 Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events *Martius, O. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 36 NO. 14, 2009 Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the *stratospheric sudden warming of 2006 *Coy, L. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 66 NO. 2, 2009 Is there a statistical connection between stratospheric sudden warming *and tropospheric blocking e ents? *Taguchi, M. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 65 NO. 4, 2008 Effect of stratospheric sudden warming and vortex intensification on *the tropospheric climate *Kuroda, Y. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 113 NO. D15, 2008 The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian *Weather *Deng, S. *Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 25 NO. 5, 2008 What kind of stratospheric sudden warming propagates to the *troposphere? *Nakagawa, K.I. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 4, 2006 Influence of stratospheric sudden warming on the equatorial *troposphere *Kodera, K. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 6, 2006 The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern *hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002 *Charlton, A.J. *Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, VOL. 131 NO. *609, 2005 A mechanistic model study of slowly propagating coupled *stratosphere-troposphere variability *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 105 NO. D10, 2000 Tropospheric circulation changes associated with stratospheric sudden *warmings: a case study *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 100 NO. D 6, 1995 The quasi-biennial oscillation and major stratospheric warmings: a *three-dimensional model study *Dameris, M. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 2, 1990 Planetary waves modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) *Maillard, A. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 7/8, 1990 Sudden stratospheric warming and anomalous U.S. weather *Douglas, D.A. *Monthly Weather Review, VOL. 116 NO. 1, 1988 A numerical test of connections between the stratospheric sudden *warming and the quasi-biennial oscillation *Bridger, A.F.C. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 89 NO. D3, 1984 ----- artificial cutoff at 1982 ---- And of course, these couplings have been studied by researchers in *Russia, Japan, China and France, to name but four, and to do an *exhaustive search would require looking for works published in those *languages - it has been an 'active' area of research over the last 10 *years or so. A word of caution: don't rely on a 'general' internet search for this *type of subject: you need to interrogate specialised catalogues, such *as this one, or the AMS etc. Martin. As it is a .sci newsgroup, I think anyone proposing these kind of links should give an academic assessment of probabilities, based on research and not upon what they think should be the effects of an SSW event. I will happily change my mind and learn if I'm wrong. I'm sure with all his experience in forecasting Mr Fish would have considered all of the above, along with first principles?- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - No Dawlish knows far better. *Who could forget his fantastic forecasting succes rate. Trouble is most of the so called professional forecaster *fear him and therefore ridicule his efforts down at William Hill's. You are out of your depth, as this involves looking at science and actual research, I'm afraid,- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Opps: Sorry I forgot I was dealing with a superior human. Eugenics anyone? I'd wager you're a Fabian. |
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#7
January 10th 12, 07:26 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Mr Fish linking stratwarm to change to colder weather
On Jan 9, 4:30*pm, Scott W wrote:
On Jan 8, 6:36*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Jan 8, 5:39*pm, Mark Chamberlain sent by Iphone wrote: At least partly anyway http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...ryid=945;sess= Orsett, Essex Before anyone imparts even more received wisdom about SSWs - and this appears to be - may I refer to a post my Martin Rowley, which got me interested in SSWs and for which I've thanked him before. Thanks again! Before anyone goes accepting that received wisdom, I would heartily implore you to read the papers in Martin's MetO library list. Some are very relevant. None go to the extremes that Will does, or Michael Fish and all are *very* cautious in linking SSWs with individual surface conditions, except in very well developed major events. This one is not. This is very much a minor SSW event, as there has been no reversal in stratospheric winds, rather than a major one. Several papers investigate major events. None investigate minor ones, as far as I know. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...catalogue.html using the phrase:- "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" Search found ... 103 titles. I have extracted the titles of those which appear to be relevant to *impacts of such events on the troposphe- *[latest first/cut-off 1982] Dynamical response of low-latitude middle atmosphere to major sudden *stratospheric warming events *Sathishkumar, S. *Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, VOL. 71 NO. 8/9, *2009 Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events *Martius, O. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 36 NO. 14, 2009 Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the *stratospheric sudden warming of 2006 *Coy, L. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 66 NO. 2, 2009 Is there a statistical connection between stratospheric sudden warming *and tropospheric blocking e ents? *Taguchi, M. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 65 NO. 4, 2008 Effect of stratospheric sudden warming and vortex intensification on *the tropospheric climate *Kuroda, Y. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 113 NO. D15, 2008 The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian *Weather *Deng, S. *Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 25 NO. 5, 2008 What kind of stratospheric sudden warming propagates to the *troposphere? *Nakagawa, K.I. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 4, 2006 Influence of stratospheric sudden warming on the equatorial *troposphere *Kodera, K. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 6, 2006 The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern *hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002 *Charlton, A.J. *Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, VOL. 131 NO. *609, 2005 A mechanistic model study of slowly propagating coupled *stratosphere-troposphere variability *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 105 NO. D10, 2000 Tropospheric circulation changes associated with stratospheric sudden *warmings: a case study *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 100 NO. D 6, 1995 The quasi-biennial oscillation and major stratospheric warmings: a *three-dimensional model study *Dameris, M. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 2, 1990 Planetary waves modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) *Maillard, A. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 7/8, 1990 Sudden stratospheric warming and anomalous U.S. weather *Douglas, D.A. *Monthly Weather Review, VOL. 116 NO. 1, 1988 A numerical test of connections between the stratospheric sudden *warming and the quasi-biennial oscillation *Bridger, A.F.C. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 89 NO. D3, 1984 ----- artificial cutoff at 1982 ---- And of course, these couplings have been studied by researchers in *Russia, Japan, China and France, to name but four, and to do an *exhaustive search would require looking for works published in those *languages - it has been an 'active' area of research over the last 10 *years or so. A word of caution: don't rely on a 'general' internet search for this *type of subject: you need to interrogate specialised catalogues, such *as this one, or the AMS etc. Martin. As it is a .sci newsgroup, I think anyone proposing these kind of links should give an academic assessment of probabilities, based on research and not upon what they think should be the effects of an SSW event. I will happily change my mind and learn if I'm wrong. I'm sure with all his experience in forecasting Mr Fish would have considered all of the above, along with first principles? One would hope so. |
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#8
January 11th 12, 11:21 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Mr Fish linking stratwarm to change to colder weather
On Jan 9, 4:30*pm, Scott W wrote:
On Jan 8, 6:36*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Jan 8, 5:39*pm, Mark Chamberlain sent by Iphone wrote: At least partly anyway http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...ryid=945;sess= Orsett, Essex Before anyone imparts even more received wisdom about SSWs - and this appears to be - may I refer to a post my Martin Rowley, which got me interested in SSWs and for which I've thanked him before. Thanks again! Before anyone goes accepting that received wisdom, I would heartily implore you to read the papers in Martin's MetO library list. Some are very relevant. None go to the extremes that Will does, or Michael Fish and all are *very* cautious in linking SSWs with individual surface conditions, except in very well developed major events. This one is not. This is very much a minor SSW event, as there has been no reversal in stratospheric winds, rather than a major one. Several papers investigate major events. None investigate minor ones, as far as I know. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...catalogue.html using the phrase:- "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" Search found ... 103 titles. I have extracted the titles of those which appear to be relevant to *impacts of such events on the troposphe- *[latest first/cut-off 1982] Dynamical response of low-latitude middle atmosphere to major sudden *stratospheric warming events *Sathishkumar, S. *Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, VOL. 71 NO. 8/9, *2009 Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events *Martius, O. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 36 NO. 14, 2009 Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the *stratospheric sudden warming of 2006 *Coy, L. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 66 NO. 2, 2009 Is there a statistical connection between stratospheric sudden warming *and tropospheric blocking e ents? *Taguchi, M. *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 65 NO. 4, 2008 Effect of stratospheric sudden warming and vortex intensification on *the tropospheric climate *Kuroda, Y. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 113 NO. D15, 2008 The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian *Weather *Deng, S. *Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 25 NO. 5, 2008 What kind of stratospheric sudden warming propagates to the *troposphere? *Nakagawa, K.I. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 4, 2006 Influence of stratospheric sudden warming on the equatorial *troposphere *Kodera, K. *Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 6, 2006 The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern *hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002 *Charlton, A.J. *Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, VOL. 131 NO. *609, 2005 A mechanistic model study of slowly propagating coupled *stratosphere-troposphere variability *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 105 NO. D10, 2000 Tropospheric circulation changes associated with stratospheric sudden *warmings: a case study *Kodera, K. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 100 NO. D 6, 1995 The quasi-biennial oscillation and major stratospheric warmings: a *three-dimensional model study *Dameris, M. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 2, 1990 Planetary waves modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) *Maillard, A. *Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 7/8, 1990 Sudden stratospheric warming and anomalous U.S. weather *Douglas, D.A. *Monthly Weather Review, VOL. 116 NO. 1, 1988 A numerical test of connections between the stratospheric sudden *warming and the quasi-biennial oscillation *Bridger, A.F.C. *Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 89 NO. D3, 1984 ----- artificial cutoff at 1982 ---- And of course, these couplings have been studied by researchers in *Russia, Japan, China and France, to name but four, and to do an *exhaustive search would require looking for works published in those *languages - it has been an 'active' area of research over the last 10 *years or so. A word of caution: don't rely on a 'general' internet search for this *type of subject: you need to interrogate specialised catalogues, such *as this one, or the AMS etc. Martin. As it is a .sci newsgroup, I think anyone proposing these kind of links should give an academic assessment of probabilities, based on research and not upon what they think should be the effects of an SSW event. I will happily change my mind and learn if I'm wrong. I'm sure with all his experience in forecasting Mr Fish would have considered all of the above, along with first principles? http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Dawlish |
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