The gfs ensembles have suggested this for 24 hours now and there are
fewer colder scenarios after 10 days, in the 06z ensembles:

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

The gfs operational has shown it for 3 runs and the ECM was suggesting
the same on the 00z at 10 days. If the gfs continues in the same theme
and is supported by the ECM, I may forecast a return to zonal at T240.
I'm not certain yet and my criteria for forecasting have not yet been
satisfied, but ATM, that seems the most likely outcome.

Like the last 3 days, there is still nothing in the models that
suggests confidence enough for a forecast that is likely to be
accurate.

On Jan 14, 12:02*pm, Dawlish wrote:
The gfs ensembles have suggested this for 24 hours now and there are
fewer colder scenarios after 10 days, in the 06z ensembles:

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

The gfs operational has shown it for 3 runs and the ECM was suggesting
the same on the 00z at 10 days. If the gfs continues in the same theme
and is supported by the ECM, I may forecast a return to zonal at T240.
I'm not certain yet and my criteria for forecasting have not yet been
satisfied, but ATM, that seems the most likely outcome.

Like the last 3 days, there is still nothing in the models that
suggests confidence enough for a forecast that is likely to be
accurate.



12z gfs continues the theme.

On Jan 14, 4:57*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 14, 12:02*pm, Dawlish wrote:





The gfs ensembles have suggested this for 24 hours now and there are
fewer colder scenarios after 10 days, in the 06z ensembles:

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

The gfs operational has shown it for 3 runs and the ECM was suggesting
the same on the 00z at 10 days. If the gfs continues in the same theme
and is supported by the ECM, I may forecast a return to zonal at T240.
I'm not certain yet and my criteria for forecasting have not yet been
satisfied, but ATM, that seems the most likely outcome.

Like the last 3 days, there is still nothing in the models that
suggests confidence enough for a forecast that is likely to be
accurate.

12z gfs continues the theme.

ECM 12z hangs onto its colder theme by its bootstraps. I think it will
probably be gone tomorrow, but my confidence in zonal conditions
returning still hovers below 80%

Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 14, 4:57 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 14, 12:02 pm, Dawlish wrote:





The gfs ensembles have suggested this for 24 hours now and there are
fewer colder scenarios after 10 days, in the 06z ensembles:
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/
The gfs operational has shown it for 3 runs and the ECM was suggesting
the same on the 00z at 10 days. If the gfs continues in the same theme
and is supported by the ECM, I may forecast a return to zonal at T240.
I'm not certain yet and my criteria for forecasting have not yet been
satisfied, but ATM, that seems the most likely outcome.
Like the last 3 days, there is still nothing in the models that
suggests confidence enough for a forecast that is likely to be
accurate.
12z gfs continues the theme.

ECM 12z hangs onto its colder theme by its bootstraps. I think it will
probably be gone tomorrow, but my confidence in zonal conditions
returning still hovers below 80%
----------------------
I had to smile when I read this after the criticism of Will's "Holding
his nerve".
Not quite sure about the confidence limits of "hovering below 80%"

Dave

On Jan 14, 7:52*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 14, 4:57 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 14, 12:02 pm, Dawlish wrote:

The gfs ensembles have suggested this for 24 hours now and there are
fewer colder scenarios after 10 days, in the 06z ensembles:
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/
The gfs operational has shown it for 3 runs and the ECM was suggesting
the same on the 00z at 10 days. If the gfs continues in the same theme
and is supported by the ECM, I may forecast a return to zonal at T240..
I'm not certain yet and my criteria for forecasting have not yet been
satisfied, but ATM, that seems the most likely outcome.
Like the last 3 days, there is still nothing in the models that
suggests confidence enough for a forecast that is likely to be
accurate.
12z gfs continues the theme.

ECM 12z hangs onto its colder theme by its bootstraps. I think it will
probably be gone tomorrow, but my confidence in zonal conditions
returning still hovers below 80%

----------------------
I had to smile when I read this after the criticism of Will's "Holding
his nerve".
Not quite sure about the confidence limits of "hovering below 80%"

Dave



It's always good to smile.

I don't quite know what you mean though Dave. I have particular
criteria, which have to be satisfied before I feel 80% confident that
something will happen. It's got nothing to do with the, frankly silly,
phrase; "holding one's nerve" and everything to do with recognising
when the probability of something happening is 80%+. ATM nothing is,
beacuse the 12z ECM still holds out the chance of an extended colder
spell...........just. *))

Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 14, 7:52 pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 14, 4:57 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 14, 12:02 pm, Dawlish wrote:
The gfs ensembles have suggested this for 24 hours now and there are
fewer colder scenarios after 10 days, in the 06z ensembles:
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/
The gfs operational has shown it for 3 runs and the ECM was suggesting
the same on the 00z at 10 days. If the gfs continues in the same theme
and is supported by the ECM, I may forecast a return to zonal at T240.
I'm not certain yet and my criteria for forecasting have not yet been
satisfied, but ATM, that seems the most likely outcome.
Like the last 3 days, there is still nothing in the models that
suggests confidence enough for a forecast that is likely to be
accurate.
12z gfs continues the theme.
ECM 12z hangs onto its colder theme by its bootstraps. I think it will
probably be gone tomorrow, but my confidence in zonal conditions
returning still hovers below 80%
----------------------
I had to smile when I read this after the criticism of Will's "Holding
his nerve".
Not quite sure about the confidence limits of "hovering below 80%"

Dave



It's always good to smile.

I don't quite know what you mean though Dave.
----------------------------------------------

Well as you've asked, "hovering below" a specific value isn't a
particularly well defined statistical term. I would imagine 10% could
hover below 80%. It was a wry observation that if you are worried about
others' semantics then in this instance yours might have been better.
Dave