Forgive me if posted but finally a subtle change in the -day 16-30-.

"The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the
most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from
an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow
to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be
most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in
which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative
scenario are currently rated as about one in three."

radar looking good at the mo too..brace yourself Isle of Man

brian
aberfeldy

On Jan 25, 5:02*pm, Brian in Aberfeldy
wrote:
Forgive me if posted but finally a subtle change in the -day 16-30-.

Yes looks like we'll get some chilly stuff after all. It would make a
change to have an old fashioned spring with few blasts from the east
stretching out into May (n'er cast a clout 'til May is out!).

In article
,
Brian in Aberfeldy writes:
Forgive me if posted but finally a subtle change in the -day 16-30-.

"The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the
most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from
an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow
to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be
most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in
which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative
scenario are currently rated as about one in three."
snip

Yes, I noticed that, and they've come off the fence for days 6-15 too.

I imagine that the North Sea must be warmer than usual for January at
present, so in an easterly it could be one of those occasions when the
south is colder than the north because of the shorter sea track.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

On Jan 25, 7:58*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article
,
*Brian in Aberfeldy writes:Forgive me if posted but finally a subtle change in the -day 16-30-.

"The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the
most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from
an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow
to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be
most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in
which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative
scenario are currently rated as about one in three."

snip

Yes, I noticed that, and they've come off the fence for days 6-15 too.

I imagine that the North Sea must be warmer than usual for January at
present, so in an easterly it could be one of those occasions when the
south is colder than the north because of the shorter sea track.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

It appears that there is still a degree of fence sitting going on down
here in the South West.

The usually informative local Wednesday forecast on the BBC TV local
news spot would always give a summary up to and including Sunday.

But tonight the forecast ended on Saturday. The presenter stated that
there was no forecast for Sunday, " as we don't know what's going to
happen on that day".

Perhaps Mr Braine should take a peak on here. No harm in that is
there?

Ian H

Plymstock

Things have come to a pretty pass when Wetterzentrale shuts down,like
tonight .
They obviously don't know either !

RonB

"Ian H" wrote in message
...
On Jan 25, 7:58 pm, John Hall wrote:
In article
,
Brian in Aberfeldy writes:Forgive me if
posted but finally a subtle change in the -day 16-30-.

"The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the
most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from
an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow
to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be
most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in
which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative
scenario are currently rated as about one in three."

snip

Yes, I noticed that, and they've come off the fence for days 6-15 too.

I imagine that the North Sea must be warmer than usual for January at
present, so in an easterly it could be one of those occasions when the
south is colder than the north because of the shorter sea track.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

It appears that there is still a degree of fence sitting going on down
here in the South West.

The usually informative local Wednesday forecast on the BBC TV local
news spot would always give a summary up to and including Sunday.

But tonight the forecast ended on Saturday. The presenter stated that
there was no forecast for Sunday, " as we don't know what's going to
happen on that day".

Perhaps Mr Braine should take a peak on here. No harm in that is
there?

Ian H

Plymstock

On Jan 25, 8:35*pm, Ian H wrote:
On Jan 25, 7:58*pm, John Hall wrote:





In article
,
*Brian in Aberfeldy writes:Forgive me if posted but finally a subtle change in the -day 16-30-.

"The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the
most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from
an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow
to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be
most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in
which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative
scenario are currently rated as about one in three."

snip

Yes, I noticed that, and they've come off the fence for days 6-15 too.

I imagine that the North Sea must be warmer than usual for January at
present, so in an easterly it could be one of those occasions when the
south is colder than the north because of the shorter sea track.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

It appears that there is still a degree of fence sitting going on down
here in the South West.

The usually informative local Wednesday forecast on the BBC TV local
news spot would always give a summary up to and including Sunday.

But tonight the forecast ended on Saturday. The presenter stated that
there was no forecast for Sunday, " as we don't know what's going to
happen on that day".

Perhaps Mr Braine should take a peak on here. No harm in that is
there?

Ian H

Plymstock



He really did say that and I sat momentarily open mouthed at what I'd
just heard - then I actually laughed out loud! It was very funny. The
two news presenters just looked a bit stunned!

Terrific honesty in many ways!!

Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 25, 8:35 pm, Ian H wrote:
On Jan 25, 7:58 pm, John Hall wrote:





In article
,
Brian in Aberfeldy writes:Forgive me if posted but finally a subtle change in the -day 16-30-.
"The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the
most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from
an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow
to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be
most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in
which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative
scenario are currently rated as about one in three."
snip
Yes, I noticed that, and they've come off the fence for days 6-15 too.
I imagine that the North Sea must be warmer than usual for January at
present, so in an easterly it could be one of those occasions when the
south is colder than the north because of the shorter sea track.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw
It appears that there is still a degree of fence sitting going on down
here in the South West.

The usually informative local Wednesday forecast on the BBC TV local
news spot would always give a summary up to and including Sunday.

But tonight the forecast ended on Saturday. The presenter stated that
there was no forecast for Sunday, " as we don't know what's going to
happen on that day".

Perhaps Mr Braine should take a peak on here. No harm in that is
there?

Ian H

Plymstock



He really did say that and I sat momentarily open mouthed at what I'd
just heard - then I actually laughed out loud! It was very funny. The
two news presenters just looked a bit stunned!

Terrific honesty in many ways!!
------------------------------------------
Hardly surprising I suppose when tonight's GFS 850 hPa ensemble for
London have a spread of 20C between the highest and lowest peturbations
- and that's for just one week ahead!
Dave

Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 25, 8:35 pm, Ian H wrote:

But tonight the forecast ended on Saturday. The presenter stated that
there was no forecast for Sunday, " as we don't know what's going to
happen on that day".

Perhaps Mr Braine should take a peak on here. No harm in that is
there?

Ian H

Plymstock



He really did say that and I sat momentarily open mouthed at what I'd
just heard - then I actually laughed out loud! It was very funny. The
two news presenters just looked a bit stunned!

That sounds like one of your forecasts.
If you're not sure, you just don't issue
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Jan 26, 5:31*am, "Col" wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 25, 8:35 pm, Ian H wrote:

But tonight the forecast ended on Saturday. The presenter stated that
there was no forecast for Sunday, " as we don't know what's going to
happen on that day".

Perhaps Mr Braine should take a peak on here. No harm in that is
there?

Ian H

Plymstock

He really did say that and I sat momentarily open mouthed at what I'd
just heard - then I actually laughed out loud! It was very funny. The
two news presenters just looked a bit stunned!

That sounds like one of your forecasts.
If you're not sure, you just don't issue
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl



And that is the same honesty. It says, ATM, I dont know and most of
the time, I quite simply don't. If only the public could accept the
MetO doing that. The expectation, however, is that the MetO is somehow
expected to know and unfortunately the MetO feeds that expectation by
(until very recently) giving the public a forecast with no
qualifications, that tells them that it must know, when in fact, at 10
days, they only have an idea of what it will be like and that idea may
well be wrong.

I'm a long way from beig alone in wanting to see an indication of the
MetO's confidence in forecasts at 10 and 15 days, instead of the 6-15
day precis that is scribbled for us at present - probably by the tea
boy *)).

Col wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 25, 8:35 pm, Ian H wrote:

But tonight the forecast ended on Saturday. The presenter stated that
there was no forecast for Sunday, " as we don't know what's going to
happen on that day".

Perhaps Mr Braine should take a peak on here. No harm in that is
there?

Ian H

Plymstock


He really did say that and I sat momentarily open mouthed at what I'd
just heard - then I actually laughed out loud! It was very funny. The
two news presenters just looked a bit stunned!

That sounds like one of your forecasts.
If you're not sure, you just don't issue
--------------------------------
I thought the same. I would think every forecast should take all of the
information and give a forecast with a confidence level and when that
confidence level becomes unacceptable and it becomes less than 50/50
they should say so, as they have been lately.
Two caveats I would add are that the Met Office have a larger pool of
expertise and more data than Paul so it should happen less often to them.
Dave