"Eskimo Will" wrote in message news:...
Sounds like a state of the union speech :-)

High confidence for cold weather on the way, but it is going to be
absolutely fascinating for us meteorologists.

I'm more or less ruling out a straight easterly with bitterly cold ice
days and air as "dry as a witches wotsit" scenario. What I am going for is
a "battleground UK". There's going to be some very interesting weather I
fancy.


06Z GFS not only has a battle but a World War one trench warfare scenario!
Fronts coming in from the west running up against the block. Heavy snow in
places, rain in others, but then turning back to snow again, a forecaster's
nightmare. I still fancy some red warnings will be on offer. Blood and guts,
toys out of the pram, severe weather, all the drama of a British winter :-)

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Jan 28, 12:01*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Eskimo Will" wrote in message news:...
Sounds like a state of the union speech :-)

High confidence for cold weather on the way, but it is going to be
absolutely fascinating for us meteorologists.

I'm more or less ruling out a straight easterly with bitterly cold ice
days and air as "dry as a witches wotsit" scenario. What I am going for is
a "battleground UK". There's going to be some very interesting weather I
fancy.

06Z GFS not only has a battle but a World War one trench warfare scenario!
Fronts coming in from the west running up against the block. Heavy snow in
places, rain in others, but then turning back to snow again, a forecaster's
nightmare. I still fancy some red warnings will be on offer. Blood and guts,
toys out of the pram, severe weather, all the drama of a British winter :-)

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------



Actually, a British February. The rest of the winter lacked a little
"drama" don't you think? Some may have thought there was going to be
"drama", on every occasion that the far reaches of the gfs showed
possibiities for cold, but it sort of didn't happen in early Dec, late
Dec, early Jan, mid Jan, or last weekend.

Rats, eh?

Still, like I said, it will get cold and snow at some stage, it was
just that no-one knew it would probably be next weekend, for many,
until a few days ago. *))

Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 28, 12:01 pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Eskimo Will" wrote in message news:...
Sounds like a state of the union speech :-)

High confidence for cold weather on the way, but it is going to be
absolutely fascinating for us meteorologists.

I'm more or less ruling out a straight easterly with bitterly cold
ice days and air as "dry as a witches wotsit" scenario. What I am
going for is a "battleground UK". There's going to be some very
interesting weather I fancy.

06Z GFS not only has a battle but a World War one trench warfare
scenario! Fronts coming in from the west running up against the
block. Heavy snow in places, rain in others, but then turning back
to snow again, a forecaster's nightmare. I still fancy some red
warnings will be on offer. Blood and guts, toys out of the pram,
severe weather, all the drama of a British winter :-)

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------



Actually, a British February. The rest of the winter lacked a little
"drama" don't you think? Some may have thought there was going to be
"drama", on every occasion that the far reaches of the gfs showed
possibiities for cold, but it sort of didn't happen in early Dec, late
Dec, early Jan, mid Jan, or last weekend.

Ask those in central Scotland who suffered the severe gales in
December if this winter has lacked a little 'drama'......
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On 28/01/2012 12:01 PM, Eskimo Will wrote:

"Eskimo Will" wrote in message news:...
Sounds like a state of the union speech :-)

High confidence for cold weather on the way, but it is going to be
absolutely fascinating for us meteorologists.

I'm more or less ruling out a straight easterly with bitterly cold ice
days and air as "dry as a witches wotsit" scenario. What I am going
for is a "battleground UK". There's going to be some very interesting
weather I fancy.


06Z GFS not only has a battle but a World War one trench warfare scenario!
Fronts coming in from the west running up against the block. Heavy snow
in places, rain in others, but then turning back to snow again, a
forecaster's nightmare. I still fancy some red warnings will be on
offer. Blood and guts, toys out of the pram, severe weather, all the
drama of a British winter :-)

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------
have you read the met short range update today Will?
it almost cancels the cold spell!

On 28/01/2012 13:53, Stan wrote:
On 28/01/2012 12:01 PM, Eskimo Will wrote:

"Eskimo Will" wrote in message news:...
Sounds like a state of the union speech :-)

High confidence for cold weather on the way, but it is going to be
absolutely fascinating for us meteorologists.

I'm more or less ruling out a straight easterly with bitterly cold ice
days and air as "dry as a witches wotsit" scenario. What I am going
for is a "battleground UK". There's going to be some very interesting
weather I fancy.


06Z GFS not only has a battle but a World War one trench warfare
scenario!
Fronts coming in from the west running up against the block. Heavy snow
in places, rain in others, but then turning back to snow again, a
forecaster's nightmare. I still fancy some red warnings will be on
offer. Blood and guts, toys out of the pram, severe weather, all the
drama of a British winter :-)

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------
have you read the met short range update today Will?
it almost cancels the cold spell!

The Met Office 6-15 day forecast matches what both the ECMWF and GFS
model operationals showed when I last looked a couple of hours ago - a
pretty decent shot of cold air next weekend with the Atlantic westerlies
returning thereafter. The recent Met Office medium range forecasts have
always hinted at uncertainty over whether the "block" would form or hold
or fail.

Rather more interesting is the 16-30 day "Snowmageddon" forecast which
on the face of it does not seem to "follow" the shorter term forecast at
all, there being no indication in either forecast of a transition back
from the westerly to easterly types - although the word "easterly" is
not in the forecast it is implied by the forecast temperature
distribution and hinted at by the far end GFS output (subject to the
ususal "fantasy land" caveats about that).

As I have no access to the data they use to forecast this far out, I
have no idea where this is coming from - except to say that until it
becomes definite in the later part of the 6-15 day forecast I am not
going to start panic buying at the supermarket just yet. It almost
seems that both these forecasts have been produced by different people
from different data who have not shared their ideas with each other.

A severe cold episode next weekend now seems definitely more likely than
not. The jury's still out on what might follow, but there is still
plenty of winter left to come and, as I often say, my station's (near
Southampton) snow depth record was set in March.

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.

On Jan 28, 12:01*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Eskimo Will" wrote in message news:...
Sounds like a state of the union speech :-)

High confidence for cold weather on the way, but it is going to be
absolutely fascinating for us meteorologists.

I'm more or less ruling out a straight easterly with bitterly cold ice
days and air as "dry as a witches wotsit" scenario. What I am going for is
a "battleground UK". There's going to be some very interesting weather I
fancy.

06Z GFS not only has a battle but a World War one trench warfare scenario!
Fronts coming in from the west running up against the block. Heavy snow in
places, rain in others, but then turning back to snow again, a forecaster's
nightmare. I still fancy some red warnings will be on offer. Blood and guts,
toys out of the pram, severe weather, all the drama of a British winter :-)

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Plenty of potential here, and it could go either way. But until the
cold has got well established to our east and the high shows signs of
getting together with a developing Mediterranean low, we're all
sitting on the fence "watching this space". I still have the feeling
it's going to be a half baked affair that will never quite get there.
Of course I'm talking about a widespread event, but locally with some
high ground there is going to be some disruption over the next few
days.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Keith Harris wrote:
On Jan 28, 12:01 pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Eskimo Will" wrote in message news:...
Sounds like a state of the union speech :-)
High confidence for cold weather on the way, but it is going to be
absolutely fascinating for us meteorologists.
I'm more or less ruling out a straight easterly with bitterly cold ice
days and air as "dry as a witches wotsit" scenario. What I am going for is
a "battleground UK". There's going to be some very interesting weather I
fancy.
06Z GFS not only has a battle but a World War one trench warfare scenario!
Fronts coming in from the west running up against the block. Heavy snow in
places, rain in others, but then turning back to snow again, a forecaster's
nightmare. I still fancy some red warnings will be on offer. Blood and guts,
toys out of the pram, severe weather, all the drama of a British winter :-)

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Plenty of potential here, and it could go either way. But until the
cold has got well established to our east and the high shows signs of
getting together with a developing Mediterranean low, we're all
sitting on the fence "watching this space". I still have the feeling
it's going to be a half baked affair that will never quite get there.
Of course I'm talking about a widespread event, but locally with some
high ground there is going to be some disruption over the next few
days.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
--------------------------------------
I find it interesting Keith that the earlier predictions always seem to
say "the coldest and biggest snow risk will be in the East" but the
boundary is usually to the west of us, often the M4 corridor, and we
often get some cloud and breeze off the North sea keeping our night
temperatures milder than those more central. Being near to the cold
doesn't usually help unless we get the showers and Thames streamers
(which of course we might in an Easterly).
Dave

On Jan 28, 12:57*pm, "Col" wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 28, 12:01 pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Eskimo Will" wrote in message news:...
Sounds like a state of the union speech :-)

High confidence for cold weather on the way, but it is going to be
absolutely fascinating for us meteorologists.

I'm more or less ruling out a straight easterly with bitterly cold
ice days and air as "dry as a witches wotsit" scenario. What I am
going for is a "battleground UK". There's going to be some very
interesting weather I fancy.

06Z GFS not only has a battle but a World War one trench warfare
scenario! Fronts coming in from the west running up against the
block. Heavy snow in places, rain in others, but then turning back
to snow again, a forecaster's nightmare. I still fancy some red
warnings will be on offer. Blood and guts, toys out of the pram,
severe weather, all the drama of a British winter :-)

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro..htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Actually, a British February. The rest of the winter lacked a little
"drama" don't you think? Some may have thought there was going to be
"drama", on every occasion that the far reaches of the gfs showed
possibiities for cold, but it sort of didn't happen in early Dec, late
Dec, early Jan, mid Jan, or last weekend.

Ask those in central Scotland who suffered the severe gales in
December if this winter has lacked a little 'drama'......
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl



Cold Col. That's winter "drama" for our Haytor member. Cold and snow.

In article ,
Yokel writes:
Rather more interesting is the 16-30 day "Snowmageddon"
forecast which on the face of it does not seem to "follow" the
shorter term forecast at all, there being no indication in either
forecast of a transition back from the westerly to easterly types -
although the word "easterly" is not in the forecast it is implied by
the forecast temperature distribution and hinted at by the far end
GFS output (subject to the ususal "fantasy land" caveats about
that).

I think that the 6-15 day forecast is updated daily, but the 16-30 one
only once or twice a week (despite being given a date/time tag
suggesting that it is updated daily). That means that there's sometimes
a "disconnect" between the two forecasts.

Meanwhile the 12Z GFS and ECMWF operational model runs seem to have
upped the intensity and duration of the cold once more, as has the GFS
ensemble if not quite to the same extent as the operational run. (I
haven't yet seen the ECMWF ensemble.) Both models now seem to be
indicating that it will be exceptionally cold for much of the country
around next weekend (and pretty chilly before then).
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 28, 12:57 pm, "Col" wrote:

Ask those in central Scotland who suffered the severe gales in
December if this winter has lacked a little 'drama'......
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl



Cold Col. That's winter "drama" for our Haytor member. Cold and snow.

Indeed.
But I was just pointing out that there is more to winter drama
than just cold and snow.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl