On Feb 3, 9:24*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On Feb 3, 8:55*pm, "Col" wrote:





"Phil Layton" wrote in message

...

I cannot remember such certainty about snow arriving as with the current
forecast. 10cms. Models in agreement for 3 runs in a row.

I'm expecting 2-3 inches here tomorrow afternoon followed by
a relatively brief period of sleet/rain before the front clears and
everything freezes over again.

What can go wrong ?

Somebody on *a weather newsgroup tempting fate
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

I have about a dozen toys lined up to throw at the tele LOL

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weathr Home & Abroad"



Is the snow coming? Dawlish very much doubts it......

"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message
ill.co.uk...
On Fri, 3 Feb 2012 20:55:03 -0000, Col wrote:

I'm expecting 2-3 inches here tomorrow afternoon followed by
a relatively brief period of sleet/rain before the front clears and
everything freezes over again.

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

I will be just down the road in Wigan. If that gets cancelled I hope
they do it sooner rather than later, the amber alert doesn't start
until 1200 though.

I am just to the west of the amber area and Wigan is further west
still and lower down so it might not be too bad there.
To be honest I think 2-3 inches is rather high, it's perhaps the top
end of what's possible from this situation, 1-2 inches is more likely.
I'm still not expecting a great deal of rain though, obviously in
Wigan there will be more.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Feb 3, 9:54*pm, Nick wrote:
On Feb 3, 9:24*pm, John Hall wrote:









In article ,
*Phil Layton writes:

I cannot remember such certainty about snow arriving as with the
current forecast. 10cms. Models in agreement for 3 runs in a row.

What can go wrong ?

The "10cms" is very much an upper limit, I think. Looking at the 12Z NAE
and GFS runs, from their predictions *for "Snow accu." at 6am on Sunday
it looks to me as if we may not get more than a centimetre or two of
probably rather wet snow in our part of Surrey:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts

with the deepest accumulations being in northern England and East
Anglia. But of course it's very much on a knife-edge and could well
change again.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

I have to admit I never get too excited about any possible snow from
the west down here as fronts from the west force the wind into an
unfavourable (maritime) direction meaning a pre-precipitation thaw
tends to invariably occur. I don't think I can recall a single decent
snowy episode from the west in 30 years of living in southern England.
All decent snow seems to have come on fronts or troughs from the north
or east.

Snow conditions apply once a cyclone to the west of an anticyclone are
stationed so as to act together directing mixed air temperatures from
the north over the islands.

There is no more to it than that.

People living near the Exitdoor and points east from there are likely
to have the draught hauled in from different directions but presumably
the same physics applies?

The current MetO currents show the series of cyclones coming out of
Darkest Murca belong to the series giving rise to fears concerning Mt
Cleveland in Alaskya. The set up is similar to that required for
tornadic cell evolution in them thar states:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._pressure.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

Dedicated Weatherlawyer fans will note the parallel nature of the
fronts shown on the MetO North Atlantic runs are giving rise to
duplicates from you know where and you know whats:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak...quakes_big.php
It will be interesting to surmise the behaviour of the aquifers
involved. You may call them subduction zones if you like. (I
appreciate not many of you are in full command of your brains.)

On Feb 3, 9:43*pm, Adam Lea wrote:
On 03/02/12 20:44, Phil Layton wrote:

I cannot remember such certainty about snow arriving as with the current
forecast. 10cms. Models in agreement for 3 runs in a row.

What can go wrong ?

I will be putting the winter tyres on the mountain bike tomorrow
afternoon, that'll kill it off :-).

If the charts are accurate, any precipitation will becoming via
Ireland so it will be sleet or hail. I'm not sure.

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Phil Layton writes:
I cannot remember such certainty about snow arriving as with the
current forecast. 10cms. Models in agreement for 3 runs in a row.

What can go wrong ?
The "10cms" is very much an upper limit, I think. Looking at the
12Z NAE
and GFS runs, from their predictions for "Snow accu." at 6am on Sunday
it looks to me as if we may not get more than a centimetre or two of
probably rather wet snow in our part of Surrey:
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts
with the deepest accumulations being in northern England and
East
Anglia. But of course it's very much on a knife-edge and could well
change again.
-------------------------------
I'm guessing at 5cm here here but who knows? It would be nice
for the grandkids to get one sledging day at least, this winter.
Dave

The 00Z NAE and 06Z runs both look marginally colder for SE England than
yesterday's 12Z. I still expect you to get more snow than me, though.
With a southerly wind for much of the night, I'm worried that even 30
miles inland - as I am - warming of the low-level air by the English
Channel (which must still be warmer than average, I would think) will
make itself felt.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

On Sat, 4 Feb 2012 07:59:22 -0000, Col wrote:

I am just to the west of the amber area and Wigan is further west
still and lower down so it might not be too bad there.

Cold, -2C at 0900 and it barely got above 0C. Tiny ice pellets
started about 1130 and basically didn't stop until I left at 1800.
The intensity varied a bit and there was short period of snow but
mostly these ice pellets. With the temp at 0C the thaw was more less
at the same rate but with the ground so cold it was turning back to
ice... About 1/4" thick layer of clear ripply ice on the windscreen
at 1800.

It may have been a bit cool at or just below 0C but there wasn't much
wind so being outside wasn't that bad.

--
Cheers Dave.
Nr Garrigill, Cumbria. 421m ASL.

"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message
ill.co.uk...
On Sat, 4 Feb 2012 07:59:22 -0000, Col wrote:

I am just to the west of the amber area and Wigan is further west
still and lower down so it might not be too bad there.

Cold, -2C at 0900 and it barely got above 0C. Tiny ice pellets
started about 1130 and basically didn't stop until I left at 1800.
The intensity varied a bit and there was short period of snow but
mostly these ice pellets. With the temp at 0C the thaw was more less
at the same rate but with the ground so cold it was turning back to
ice... About 1/4" thick layer of clear ripply ice on the windscreen
at 1800.

It may have been a bit cool at or just below 0C but there wasn't much
wind so being outside wasn't that bad.

I had a period of those ice pellets as well, mid afternoon before
it started snowing properly again. I think there was some
freezing rain mixed in there too, as there was a 'crusty' top to
the snow but the temp was still around -2C.
Final snow depth 10cm.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Col wrote:


"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message
ill.co.uk...
On Sat, 4 Feb 2012 07:59:22 -0000, Col wrote:

I am just to the west of the amber area and Wigan is further west
still and lower down so it might not be too bad there.

Cold, -2C at 0900 and it barely got above 0C. Tiny ice pellets
started about 1130 and basically didn't stop until I left at 1800.
The intensity varied a bit and there was short period of snow but
mostly these ice pellets. With the temp at 0C the thaw was more less
at the same rate but with the ground so cold it was turning back to
ice... About 1/4" thick layer of clear ripply ice on the windscreen
at 1800.

It may have been a bit cool at or just below 0C but there wasn't much
wind so being outside wasn't that bad.

I had a period of those ice pellets as well, mid afternoon before
it started snowing properly again. I think there was some
freezing rain mixed in there too, as there was a 'crusty' top to
the snow but the temp was still around -2C.
Final snow depth 10cm.

Nothing like that happened here. We just had dry powdery snow.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

On Feb 4, 8:30*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Feb 3, 9:54*pm, Nick wrote:









On Feb 3, 9:24*pm, John Hall wrote:

In article ,
*Phil Layton writes:

I cannot remember such certainty about snow arriving as with the
current forecast. 10cms. Models in agreement for 3 runs in a row.

What can go wrong ?

The "10cms" is very much an upper limit, I think. Looking at the 12Z NAE
and GFS runs, from their predictions *for "Snow accu." at 6am on Sunday
it looks to me as if we may not get more than a centimetre or two of
probably rather wet snow in our part of Surrey:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts

with the deepest accumulations being in northern England and East
Anglia. But of course it's very much on a knife-edge and could well
change again.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

I have to admit I never get too excited about any possible snow from
the west down here as fronts from the west force the wind into an
unfavourable (maritime) direction meaning a pre-precipitation thaw
tends to invariably occur. I don't think I can recall a single decent
snowy episode from the west in 30 years of living in southern England.
All decent snow seems to have come on fronts or troughs from the north
or east.

Snow conditions apply once a cyclone to the west of an anticyclone are
stationed so as to act together directing mixed air temperatures from
the north over the islands.

There is no more to it than that.

Boy did I get that one wrong.

Still it has stopped freezing. Always nice when the weather is warm
enough to snow.