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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0603z, 19/09/03. ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif High pressure covers Ireland, bringing westerlies to Scotland and northerlies or NE'lies over England and Wales. The high builds and drifts eastwards at T+144, leaving Scotland and Northern Ireland under westerlies. England and Wales lie under very light winds. Light southerlies cover the UK at T+168, with a ridge over the UK. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Unavailable at time of issue. GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif Unavailable at time of issue. GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif The UK lies under NW'lies, with high pressure to the WSW and lows to the NW and NE. The high moves over western France at T+120, with moderate westerlies over Scotland and Northern Ireland; England and Wales lie under much lighter westerlies. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over southern Scotland and northern England to +1C over southern England and western Scotland. Strong WSW'lies cover much of the UK at T+144 as the high moves over eastern Europe. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html The Japanese run shows a deep low to the west of Norway, with highs to the west and south of the UK. This leads to a NW'ly flow over the UK and sub 528dam air over northern Scotland (in fact, down to 522dam in the far north). 850hPa temperatures range from -7C over northern Scotland to +1C over southern England. Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA): http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html The T+108 chart shows two of the three runs with a NW'ly flow over the UK, with lows over or to the west of Scandinavia. In summary, today's runs show a good chance of a NW'ly flow over the UK for Tuesday. Beyond that, westerlies or WSW'lies look likely as high pressure moves eastwards over the southern UK. |
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