This is the way I see it with no reference to models etc. Extremely cold
boundary layer air is flooding into the SE now with dewpoints falling
to -15C in places later. Very dry air and clearing away the fog and cloud,
lowering the wet-bulb and will preserve remaining snow cover. One or two
snow showers possible. In the next two days this air will spread quite
quickly west and north covering the whole of England And Wales (even
Cornwall). Then it gets interesting later in the week and next weekend as at
least two upper trough disruptions take place to our west. There will be a
strong and warm conveyor in the SW'lies probably bringing a lot of rain to
Ireland and Scotland, especially the west, despite high pressure. As the
troughs disrupt this front will edge SE'wards and on its forward edge there
will be freezing rain leading to widespread ice. Clearly the location is
uncertain and my best guess will be SW England to Midlands to NE England.
Mixed in will also be sleet and snow but main emphasis initially will be on
liquid precipitation. As the weekend progresses it is all likely to get very
messy with cold and warm air entrained producing a mixture of rain, sleet
and snow. The SE *could* stay dry and in the cold air. Then early next week
we get a change of type as this messy mix comes south as a cold front
bringing in some sort of N or NW'ly with pressure re-building in
mid-Atlantic. It could end up as a benign anticyclonic NW'ly or go the whole
hog and build pressure over Iceland putting us into a snowy Ne'ly! I guess
the answer lies in between somewhere? We shall see.

Ciao,

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Feb 7, 5:10*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
This is the way I see it with no reference to models etc. Extremely cold
boundary layer air is flooding into the SE now with dewpoints falling
to -15C in places later. Very dry air and clearing away the fog and cloud,
lowering the wet-bulb and will preserve remaining snow cover. One or two
snow showers possible. In the next two days this air will spread quite
quickly west and north covering the whole of England And Wales (even
Cornwall). Then it gets interesting later in the week and next weekend as at
least two upper trough disruptions take place to our west. There will be a
strong and warm conveyor in the SW'lies probably bringing a lot of rain to
Ireland and Scotland, especially the west, despite high pressure. As the
troughs disrupt this front will edge SE'wards and on its forward edge there
will be freezing rain leading to widespread ice. Clearly the location is
uncertain and my best guess will be SW England to Midlands to NE England.
Mixed in will also be sleet and snow but main emphasis initially will be on
liquid precipitation. As the weekend progresses it is all likely to get very
messy with cold and warm air entrained producing a mixture of rain, sleet
and snow. The SE *could* stay dry and in the cold air. Then early next week
we get a change of type as this messy mix comes south as a cold front
bringing in some sort of N or NW'ly with pressure re-building in
mid-Atlantic. It could end up as a benign anticyclonic NW'ly or go the whole
hog and build pressure over Iceland putting us into a snowy Ne'ly! I guess
the answer lies in between somewhere? We shall see.

Ciao,

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

I am really worried my silly flowers will suffer again. (See 6 Feb
thread)

Better go and put a blanket on them.

:-(

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon

On Feb 7, 5:47*pm, Len Wood wrote:
On Feb 7, 5:10*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:









This is the way I see it with no reference to models etc. Extremely cold
boundary layer air is flooding into the SE now with dewpoints falling
to -15C in places later. Very dry air and clearing away the fog and cloud,
lowering the wet-bulb and will preserve remaining snow cover. One or two
snow showers possible. In the next two days this air will spread quite
quickly west and north covering the whole of England And Wales (even
Cornwall). Then it gets interesting later in the week and next weekend as at
least two upper trough disruptions take place to our west. There will be a
strong and warm conveyor in the SW'lies probably bringing a lot of rain to
Ireland and Scotland, especially the west, despite high pressure. As the
troughs disrupt this front will edge SE'wards and on its forward edge there
will be freezing rain leading to widespread ice. Clearly the location is
uncertain and my best guess will be SW England to Midlands to NE England.
Mixed in will also be sleet and snow but main emphasis initially will be on
liquid precipitation. As the weekend progresses it is all likely to get very
messy with cold and warm air entrained producing a mixture of rain, sleet
and snow. The SE *could* stay dry and in the cold air. Then early next week
we get a change of type as this messy mix comes south as a cold front
bringing in some sort of N or NW'ly with pressure re-building in
mid-Atlantic. It could end up as a benign anticyclonic NW'ly or go the whole
hog and build pressure over Iceland putting us into a snowy Ne'ly! I guess
the answer lies in between somewhere? We shall see.

Ciao,

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

I am really worried my silly flowers will suffer again. (See 6 Feb
thread)

Better go and put a blanket on them.

:-(

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon

I'm not suggesting this, but it was interesting to look at the data
from my electronic grass minimum thermometer that had got buried in
the snow. It was a constant 0.5°C almost throughout since being
covered and subsequently uncovered.

Keith (Southend)

On Feb 7, 5:10*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
This is the way I see it with no reference to models etc. Extremely cold
boundary layer air is flooding into the SE now with dewpoints falling
to -15C in places later. Very dry air and clearing away the fog and cloud,
lowering the wet-bulb and will preserve remaining snow cover. One or two
snow showers possible. In the next two days this air will spread quite
quickly west and north covering the whole of England And Wales (even
Cornwall). Then it gets interesting later in the week and next weekend as at
least two upper trough disruptions take place to our west. There will be a
strong and warm conveyor in the SW'lies probably bringing a lot of rain to
Ireland and Scotland, especially the west, despite high pressure. As the
troughs disrupt this front will edge SE'wards and on its forward edge there
will be freezing rain leading to widespread ice. Clearly the location is
uncertain and my best guess will be SW England to Midlands to NE England.
Mixed in will also be sleet and snow but main emphasis initially will be on
liquid precipitation. As the weekend progresses it is all likely to get very
messy with cold and warm air entrained producing a mixture of rain, sleet
and snow. The SE *could* stay dry and in the cold air. Then early next week
we get a change of type as this messy mix comes south as a cold front
bringing in some sort of N or NW'ly with pressure re-building in
mid-Atlantic. It could end up as a benign anticyclonic NW'ly or go the whole
hog and build pressure over Iceland putting us into a snowy Ne'ly! I guess
the answer lies in between somewhere? We shall see.

Ciao,

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Good evening, Will, am I right in thinking that the ECMWF is
suggesting the evolution of an omega high by 168hrs? If this comes off
we could be looking at a February similar to 1986?