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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0603z, 20/09/03. ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif High pressure lies to the south of the UK, bringing westerlies to most areas across the UK. A smalls econdary low lies to the east of NE Scotland, but by T+144 it is absorbed by a low to the north of Scotland, with more westerlies across the UK. The winds become NW'lies for all at T+168, as the low moves over Shetland and deepens. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Unavailable at time of issue. GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif WSW'lies cover much of the UK, with high pressure over the Netherlands, southern North Sea and southern parts of the UK. The far south of England lies under easterlies, as is the case at T+120 as the high moves eastwards, leaving a ridge over England and Wales. 850hPa temperatures range from +1C over Northern Ireland to +3C over SE England. Charts for T+144 and beyond were unavailable from Wetterzentral at the time of writing. GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif As with the other runs, high pressure is located to the south, this time with westerlies for all. The westerlies continue at T+120 as the high drifts eastwards, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from +1C over northern Scotland to +3C over southern England. By T+144 a SSW'ly flow covers the UK, with a slack low to the west of the British Isles. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html The Japanese run shows a weam sector over the UK, from a low to the west of southern Norway. High pressure lies to the south of the UK, leading to westerlies for England, Northern Ireland and Wales. Much of Scotland lies under NW'lies, behind the cold front. 850hPa temperatures range from -3C over northern Scotland to +3C over central England. Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA): http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html The T+108 chart shows westerlies over much of the UK. In summary, today's runs show westerlies for much of the UK on Wednesday, although there is a chance of easterlies in the far south if the high is as far north as the GFS suggests. By Friday, the GFS shows NW'lies while the GEM shows SSW'lies - so as ever, more runs are needed. |
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