In the past if someone mentioned this to me as a possibility I would come
back and say that I thought it was extremely unlikely, practically
impossible. But is it? I know we have seen heat records smashed recently and
it is easy to get carried away, but you cannot deny the facts. If this
drought continues and the ground becomes bone dry then we start to get the
ingredients for a 40C. It would take a special synoptic setup though. First
of all we'd need a SE'ly to import some hot and dry tropical continental air
in early August preferably when seas are warming and insolation is still
strong. This would need a high to our east but influencing us to keep away
Atlantic fronts and cloud. Once the hot dry air is over us then the high
needs to migrate west and allow the air to settle and a large inversion to
form in the boundary layer allowing insolation to build up heat further
heating the bone dry ground. Then one day somewhere hits 40.1C. I'm
wondering if it is worth a bet? What odds would the bookies give now on such
an event? Interesting. Note that this is not a forecast but speculation on
an event that IMHO in the past two years has become more likely to happen
given the increased tendency for blocking. Yes I know recent summers have
been on the cool side and 2012 may be no different, but it is one of those
things I have a "feeling" for and I just wanted to get it off my chest.

Will (gazing thoughtfully at the sky with doom-laden music playing in the
background)
--

On 29/03/2012 09:16, Dartmoor Will wrote:
In the past if someone mentioned this to me as a possibility I would
come back and say that I thought it was extremely unlikely, practically
impossible. But is it? I know we have seen heat records smashed recently
and it is easy to get carried away, but you cannot deny the facts. If
this drought continues and the ground becomes bone dry then we start to
get the ingredients for a 40C. It would take a special synoptic setup
though. First of all we'd need a SE'ly to import some hot and dry
tropical continental air in early August preferably when seas are
warming and insolation is still strong. This would need a high to our
east but influencing us to keep away Atlantic fronts and cloud. Once the
hot dry air is over us then the high needs to migrate west and allow the
air to settle and a large inversion to form in the boundary layer
allowing insolation to build up heat further heating the bone dry
ground. Then one day somewhere hits 40.1C. I'm wondering if it is worth
a bet? What odds would the bookies give now on such an event?
Interesting. Note that this is not a forecast but speculation on an
event that IMHO in the past two years has become more likely to happen
given the increased tendency for blocking. Yes I know recent summers
have been on the cool side and 2012 may be no different, but it is one
of those things I have a "feeling" for and I just wanted to get it off
my chest.

Will (gazing thoughtfully at the sky with doom-laden music playing in
the background)
--

Its always possible Will. Look at those max in Canada - swept the board.
My feeling is though this will all break and we'll have another mediocre
Summer (based on nothing scientific!)

--
Phil
Guildford

If you keeo carrying on like that Will ,you drag Dawlish up from the
depths.....!

RonB


"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
On 29/03/2012 09:16, Dartmoor Will wrote:
In the past if someone mentioned this to me as a possibility I would
come back and say that I thought it was extremely unlikely, practically
impossible. But is it? I know we have seen heat records smashed recently
and it is easy to get carried away, but you cannot deny the facts. If
this drought continues and the ground becomes bone dry then we start to
get the ingredients for a 40C. It would take a special synoptic setup
though. First of all we'd need a SE'ly to import some hot and dry
tropical continental air in early August preferably when seas are
warming and insolation is still strong. This would need a high to our
east but influencing us to keep away Atlantic fronts and cloud. Once the
hot dry air is over us then the high needs to migrate west and allow the
air to settle and a large inversion to form in the boundary layer
allowing insolation to build up heat further heating the bone dry
ground. Then one day somewhere hits 40.1C. I'm wondering if it is worth
a bet? What odds would the bookies give now on such an event?
Interesting. Note that this is not a forecast but speculation on an
event that IMHO in the past two years has become more likely to happen
given the increased tendency for blocking. Yes I know recent summers
have been on the cool side and 2012 may be no different, but it is one
of those things I have a "feeling" for and I just wanted to get it off
my chest.

Will (gazing thoughtfully at the sky with doom-laden music playing in
the background)
--

Its always possible Will. Look at those max in Canada - swept the board.
My feeling is though this will all break and we'll have another mediocre
Summer (based on nothing scientific!)

--
Phil
Guildford

In article ,
Dartmoor Will writes:
big snip
Then one day somewhere hits 40.1C. I'm wondering if it is worth a
bet? What odds would the bookies give now on such an event?

I'd want odds of 20-1 before I'd consider a bet. 40C would be a big
increase over the current record, not just a few tenths of a degree but
about two whole degrees. It will probably be reached one day, but I
suspect not just yet.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

Dartmoor writes:
big snip
Then one day somewhere hits 40.1C. I'm wondering if it is worth a
bet? What odds would the bookies give now on such an event?


.... looking back at August 2003, when we set the previous record (either
the Kew/38.1 or Brogdale/38.5°), temperatures over France did hit 40°C,
but only just and these stations had the 'benefit' of having been in the
middle of a country 'cooking' for several days in a slack airflow, with
no relatively cold water surface anywhere nearby. Even the short
sea-track across sea area Dover might be enough to cap temperatures; in
France over those days (6th - 10th August), they had a stagnant,
cauldron-like baking, yet the numbers of stations with =40.0 were not
abundant. So on that basis I'd say it's going to be difficult to get a
40+ figure in the immediate future (a handful of years say)

.... however ...

Analysing the Heathrow average *highest maxima* between the 1980s and
2000s (the only station I've got data to hand), then the changes between
those two decades a-

June: means +1.8degC (sd increased from 2.06 in the 1980s to 2.67 in the
2000s)
July: means +1.1degC (sd increased from 3.15 (1980s) to 3.35 (2000s)
August: means +2.2degC (sd increased from 2.05 (1980s) to 3.18 (2000s)

Heathrow's highest recorded temperature was set on 10th August, 2003 at
37.9°C

So, given the 38-ish all-national highest as above and assuming a
similar change over the next 20 years, we must surely look to an
'under-pinning' figure of 39-ish (the lowest of the changes of mean),
and applying just the *mean* change in August (+2.2degC), would suggest
that 40-ish must be achievable within the next two decades ... applying
a couple of standard deviations and the '40' figure could be smashed.

At the moment, I'd go for at least two instances of 40+ within the next
20 years somewhere in 'lowland' SE Britain - and that might be
conservative.

Martin.


--
West Moors / East Dorset
Lat: 50deg 49.25'N, Long: 01deg 53.05'W
Height (amsl): 17 m (56 feet)
COL category: C1 overall

"Dartmoor Will" wrote in message ...

In the past if someone mentioned this to me as a possibility I would come
back and say that I thought it was extremely unlikely, practically
impossible. But is it? I know we have seen heat records smashed recently and
it is easy to get carried away, but you cannot deny the facts. If this
drought continues and the ground becomes bone dry then we start to get the
ingredients for a 40C. It would take a special synoptic setup though. First
of all we'd need a SE'ly to import some hot and dry tropical continental air
in early August preferably when seas are warming and insolation is still
strong. This would need a high to our east but influencing us to keep away
Atlantic fronts and cloud. Once the hot dry air is over us then the high
needs to migrate west and allow the air to settle and a large inversion to
form in the boundary layer allowing insolation to build up heat further
heating the bone dry ground. Then one day somewhere hits 40.1C. I'm
wondering if it is worth a bet? What odds would the bookies give now on such
an event? Interesting. Note that this is not a forecast but speculation on
an event that IMHO in the past two years has become more likely to happen
given the increased tendency for blocking. Yes I know recent summers have
been on the cool side and 2012 may be no different, but it is one of those
things I have a "feeling" for and I just wanted to get it off my chest.

Will (gazing thoughtfully at the sky with doom-laden music playing in the
background)


Possible of course, but where the British climate is concerned, so is just
about anything else. Last year, April was a blinder - then we got a cool
wet summer. Keep your money in your pocket.

Ian Bingham,
Inchmarlo, Aberdeenshire.
--

In message , Dartmoor Will
writes
In the past if someone mentioned this to me as a possibility I would
come back and say that I thought it was extremely unlikely, practically
impossible. But is it?

On the basis of Will's thoughts I have ordered some sand bags and new
Wellingtons ;-)). I remain convinced there will be more of a European
monsoon effect by Summer.

So enjoying the warmth while it lasts,
James
--
James Brown

On Thu, 29 Mar 2012 17:53:30 +0100
"Ian Bingham" wrote:



"Dartmoor Will" wrote in message
...

In the past if someone mentioned this to me as a possibility I would
come back and say that I thought it was extremely unlikely,
practically impossible. But is it? I know we have seen heat records
smashed recently and it is easy to get carried away, but you cannot
deny the facts. If this drought continues and the ground becomes bone
dry then we start to get the ingredients for a 40C. It would take a
special synoptic setup though. First of all we'd need a SE'ly to
import some hot and dry tropical continental air in early August
preferably when seas are warming and insolation is still strong. This
would need a high to our east but influencing us to keep away
Atlantic fronts and cloud. Once the hot dry air is over us then the
high needs to migrate west and allow the air to settle and a large
inversion to form in the boundary layer allowing insolation to build
up heat further heating the bone dry ground. Then one day somewhere
hits 40.1C. I'm wondering if it is worth a bet? What odds would the
bookies give now on such an event? Interesting. Note that this is not
a forecast but speculation on an event that IMHO in the past two
years has become more likely to happen given the increased tendency
for blocking. Yes I know recent summers have been on the cool side
and 2012 may be no different, but it is one of those things I have a
"feeling" for and I just wanted to get it off my chest.

Will (gazing thoughtfully at the sky with doom-laden music playing in
the background)


Possible of course, but where the British climate is concerned, so is
just about anything else. Last year, April was a blinder - then we
got a cool wet summer. Keep your money in your pocket.

Ian Bingham,
Inchmarlo, Aberdeenshire.


Ian, it would have been nice if you could have separated your answer
by quoting Will's original. Any half-decent newsreader would have done
it for you. [Pan, Thunderbird, Claws, for instance]


--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: change boy to man
LibreOffice: http://www.documentfoundation.org/
openSUSE Linux: http://www.opensuse.org/en/

"Dartmoor Will" wrote in
:

Yes I know recent summers have been on the cool side and
2012 may be no different, but it is one of those things I have a
"feeling" for and I just wanted to get it off my chest.

I always worry that when we get some nice anomalously warm weather in
spring that the summer is likely to be a washout! I have not tested this
fact - more a "things make up for themselves" rule of thumb.

Richard

On Thu, 29 Mar 2012 at 09:16:54, Dartmoor Will
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

In the past if someone mentioned this to me as a possibility I would
come back and say that I thought it was extremely unlikely, practically
impossible. But is it?

I hope not, or I'm emigrating to Ny Alesund!
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)