The waving front across Northern England seems to be causing nightmares
for the forecasters. It never seems to do what it's supposed to!

Originally it was supposed to move down south as a weakening feature,
then they said it would push up into Scotland and now it's going to come
back south again, as a weakening feature.
For much of the day it has stayed just to the north of me but now the rain
has started as what I assume is the cold front part begins to move through.

A dull and cheerless day here, a max of just 14.7C.
I hear it's been 27C down south, that might as well be on the other side of
the world.

It just goes to show that for all the people who think they can forecast
acurately week or even months ahead, sometimes even 24hr forecasts
can go badly wrong.
It would have been nice however to have seen Peter Gibbs this evening
making some mention of the fact that the forecast had completely changed
from what it was last night though.
Instead he just carried on as if nothing had ever happened!

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Raining now on the other side of the Pennines, mostly cloudy day, but with a
max of 22°c!

PKH

Brierley, S York's


"Col" wrote in message
...
The waving front across Northern England seems to be causing nightmares
for the forecasters. It never seems to do what it's supposed to!

Originally it was supposed to move down south as a weakening feature,
then they said it would push up into Scotland and now it's going to come
back south again, as a weakening feature.
For much of the day it has stayed just to the north of me but now the rain
has started as what I assume is the cold front part begins to move
through.

A dull and cheerless day here, a max of just 14.7C.
I hear it's been 27C down south, that might as well be on the other side
of
the world.

It just goes to show that for all the people who think they can forecast
acurately week or even months ahead, sometimes even 24hr forecasts
can go badly wrong.
It would have been nice however to have seen Peter Gibbs this evening
making some mention of the fact that the forecast had completely changed
from what it was last night though.
Instead he just carried on as if nothing had ever happened!

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

"Col" wrote in message
...
The waving front across Northern England seems to be causing nightmares
for the forecasters. It never seems to do what it's supposed to!

Originally it was supposed to move down south as a weakening feature,
then they said it would push up into Scotland and now it's going to come
back south again, as a weakening feature.
For much of the day it has stayed just to the north of me but now the rain
has started as what I assume is the cold front part begins to move
through.

A dull and cheerless day here, a max of just 14.7C.
I hear it's been 27C down south, that might as well be on the other side
of
the world.

been raining most of the day here in South CUmbria, rough and ready rain
gauge measurements indicate we have had an inch since 10am on top of the
inch we got in the proceeding 12 hours.

Looks like it is set in for the night as well, what wind we have is from the
south west

Jim Webster

Col wrote:

A dull and cheerless day here, a max of just 14.7C.
I hear it's been 27C down south, that might as well be on the other side of
the world.

It certainly was nice down south - not a cloud to be seen. We went to
Broadstairs' beach which was quite busy this afternoon. Tomorrow looks
like being quite similar!

Jonathan
Canterbury

snip

| It would have been nice however to have seen Peter Gibbs this evening
| making some mention of the fact that the forecast had completely changed
| from what it was last night though.
| Instead he just carried on as if nothing had ever happened!
|

The sad fact is (and I know because I was involved in some market research
on what the public want from forecasts - with the Met Office) that you/we
are in the minority in terms of what we want from a forecast. Joe public
has an attention span of about 15 seconds at the start of the forecast with
a 'second wind' of about 10 seconds after triggering by a keyword (like
their area/town or mention of a parameter of interest).

The priority of the forecast is by definition the forecast and not a
reflection of previous forecasts. To start a forecast with a comment on the
fact that the previous forecast was 'out' would undoubtedly cast doubt on
the quality of the subsequent forecast and is not in the interest of the
weather provider (bearing in mind that I am talking about the public here
and not about verification to business customers, academia or other
meteorological bodies). Unlike some businesses or weather literate
individuals the changes between forecast runs is of no interest to the
public with less than 5% able to even remember what the previous days
forecast was (except in extreme conditions or events of interest - e.g. snow
when this rises to a more comforting 50%). Amazingly 50% of people when
questioned on the content of a forecast immediately after its broadcast
where unable to correctly recount the forecast for their area.
Interestingly much of this was due to the fact that when presented with a
map of the UK 60% of people where unable to point to their location within
50km!

Admittedly this research dates back a decade but I doubt if things change
that much.

The bottom line of all this is that the majority of the public don't give a
damn about yesterdays forecast and for most of the time don't listen to the
forecast. Therefore to mention it would be wasting valuable broadcast time.
Trying to provide a forecast in a 1 to 3 minute slot is an impossible task
and at best is only going to get your message across to half the viewers.

A
(Happy to be staying in the Bracknell area)

"Alex" wrote in message
...

The sad fact is (and I know because I was involved in some market research
on what the public want from forecasts - with the Met Office) that you/we
are in the minority in terms of what we want from a forecast. Joe public
has an attention span of about 15 seconds at the start of the forecast with
a 'second wind' of about 10 seconds after triggering by a keyword (like
their area/town or mention of a parameter of interest).

A rather cynical assessement though perhaps not too far from the truth.

The priority of the forecast is by definition the forecast and not a
reflection of previous forecasts. To start a forecast with a comment on the
fact that the previous forecast was 'out' would undoubtedly cast doubt on
the quality of the subsequent forecast and is not in the interest of the
weather provider (bearing in mind that I am talking about the public here
and not about verification to business customers, academia or other
meteorological bodies). Unlike some businesses or weather literate
individuals the changes between forecast runs is of no interest to the
public with less than 5% able to even remember what the previous days
forecast was (except in extreme conditions or events of interest - e.g. snow
when this rises to a more comforting 50%). Amazingly 50% of people when
questioned on the content of a forecast immediately after its broadcast
where unable to correctly recount the forecast for their area.
Interestingly much of this was due to the fact that when presented with a
map of the UK 60% of people where unable to point to their location within
50km!

Admittedly this research dates back a decade but I doubt if things change
that much.

The bottom line of all this is that the majority of the public don't give a
damn about yesterdays forecast and for most of the time don't listen to the
forecast. Therefore to mention it would be wasting valuable broadcast time.
Trying to provide a forecast in a 1 to 3 minute slot is an impossible task
and at best is only going to get your message across to half the viewers.


Yes but saying something like, 'Yesterday we thought this front was going to
move into Scotland, but now it looks like it's going to get no further north
than
Northern England and then move south and weaken.' will hardly take up a
great deal of time. Plus, it will help the public understand that meteorology
isn't an exact science and sometimes forecasts go pear shaped.

There must have been many people in Scotland today wondering where
their wet and miserable day had got to.

It always amazes me that in a country that is supossedly obsessed with the
weather the general public know so little about it.
In the US things are very different with jet streams being routinely mentioned
in forecasts.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

"Col" wrote in message
...

A dull and cheerless day here, a max of just 14.7C.

Hi, Col,

I think a quick explanation was necessary, but as Alex writes, research
has shown otherwise.

It made an interesting time for us weather enthusiasts, though. 27.0mm
fell from the waving front and day max yesterday was a cool 14.4C here
in Copley. It cleared unexpectedly in the late evening to give us our
100th ground frost of 2003. This usually happens in late June btw.

The sky is now clouding from the SW (0950Z) and it looks as if the front
is coming back again!

It is forecast to clear to cooler showery NW'lies, but who knows? The
day the forecasters are 100% right all the time is the day I lose
interest.

ATB

--
Ken Cook, Copley (5miles north of Barnard Castle), County Durham.
830ft
http://mysite.freeserve.com/copley
(MO climat. site updated before 10Z and 19Z daily)
kencookATcopleydurham.freeserve.co.uk



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In uk.sci.weather on Sun, 21 Sep 2003 at 09:52:52, Ken Cook wrote :

It made an interesting time for us weather enthusiasts, though. 27.0mm
fell from the waving front and day max yesterday was a cool 14.4C here
in Copley. It cleared unexpectedly in the late evening to give us our
100th ground frost of 2003.

I'm surprised it wasn't too damp for g/f after all that rain.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham, England