Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Friday. Issued
0600z, 22/09/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
A deep low lies to the west of Scotland, bringing moderate SSW'lies over
much of the UK. The low deepens to the NE of Northern Ireland at T+144, with
westerly gales for Northern Ireland and southern Scotland. Strong to
moderate WSW'lies cover England and Wales, slightly lighter southerlies and
easterlies for the rest of Scotland. The low fills to the east of Scotland
at T+168, with westerlies over England and Wales, NW'lies for Northern
Ireland and northerlies for Scotland.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
As with the ECM run, a deep low is located west of Scotland. This bring
moderate SW'lies over England and Wales, with strong SW'lies for Northern
Ireland. Scotland lies under SSW'lies and southerlies, near gale force in
the west. The low fills in situ at T+144, with southerlies for central
Scotland northwards and westerlies elsewhere.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
England and Wales lie under SW'lies, as the result of a low over Scotland
and Northern Ireland. The low deepens to the east of Scotland at T+120, with
a trough over England. To the east of the trough, winds are SW'lie, wheras
the rest of the UK lies under NNE'lies, northerlies and NNW'lies. 850hPa
temperatures range from freezing over the Western Isles to +9C over SE
England. By T+144 the low moves away to the NE, leaving a trough over the
UK. England and Wales lie under westerlies, with NE'lies elsewhere. Light
NE'lies and easterlies cover the UK at T+168, with low pressure over France
and a trough over the North Sea. The winds become westerlies and NW'lies on
day 8, as the low deepens over the North Sea. Day 9 sees westerlies and
southerlies, as a result of a trough over the Celtic Sea. By day 10, SW'lies
from a low to the NW cover the UK.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
A trough covers the North Sea, bringing SW'lies to SE England and
northerlies elsewhere. Northerlies cover the whole of the UK at T+144, with
850hPa temperatures from -1C over northern Scotland to +5C over Kent. By
T+144 the winds become NE'lies over England and Wales, due to a ridge over
Northern Ireland. Much of Scotland is affected by northerlies, with
westerlies in the far north.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows a northerly flow for much of the UK, with a trough
over the North Sea and a high to the west of the UK. 850hPa temperatures
range from -2C over the Western Isles to +2C over SE England. By T+144 the
high moves over Ireland, bringing westerlies to northern Scotland and
NNE'lies for England and Wales. The high declines over the UK at T+168, with
light winds for all.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The T+108 chart shows a fair jumble of spaghetti, albeit with a trough close
to or over the UK.

In summary, today's runs are mixed. The ECM, GFS and MetO runs show an
unsettled end to the week for all, whereas the GEM and JMA show cooler
northerlies, with the least settled conditions in the east rather than the
NW. The differences continue over the weekend, too, with the JMA and GEM
showing a settled Sunday, the MetO and ECM keeping that low nearby and the
GFS taking the low NE'wards instead. As ever, more runs are needed.