On Dec 13, 7:46*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

This thread started in sci.geo.earthquakes turned into a volcano
forecasting thread. It's not for a specific volcano so much as overall
planetary activity.

I honestly don't know if this will help you or blow you out of the water
but if you want to be in the forefront of high Volcano Explosion Index
forecasting you must pull your finger out.

13th * * November 2012.

4.9 * * *M. @ * 17:20:27 * * * * COSTA RICA
5 * * * *M. @ * 17:16:22 * * * * COSTA RICA
2.7 * * *M. @ * 17:05:14 * * * * KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA
2.6 * * *M. @ * 16:26:20 * * * * CENTRAL ALASKA
4.3 * * *M. @ * 15:16:12 * * * * TARAPACA, CHILE
3.6 * * *M. @ * 14:13:01 * * * * SOUTHERN ALASKA
2.8 * * *M. @ * 13:12:03 * * * * GULF OF SANTA CATALINA, CALIFORNIA
4.6 * * *M. @ * 11:56:07 * * * * NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.7 * * *M. @ * 10:02:44 * * * * NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
2.6 * * *M. @ * 09:08:05 * * * * SOUTHERN ALASKA
2.7 * * *M. @ * 07:34:00 * * * * NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2.7 * * *M. @ * 07:32:24 * * * * NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
3.1 * * *M. @ * 07:02:22 * * * * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
2.7 * * *M. @ * 06:17:40 * * * * HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
2.7 * * *M. @ * 06:10:14 * * * * CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2.7 * * *M. @ * 05:40:16 * * * * PUERTO RICO REGION
3.4 * * *M. @ * 05:17:23 * * * * NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2.6 * * *M. @ * 04:56:00 * * * * SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA
3 * * * *M. @ * 02:52:21 * * * * KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA
2.7 * * *M. @ * 02:10:33 * * * * CENTRAL ALASKA
2.6 * * *M. @ * 02:10:24 * * * * NORTHERN TEXAS
3.6 * * *M. @ * 01:56:39 * * * * UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
5.5 * * *M. @ * 00:53:32 * * * * KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

12th

2.7 * * *M. @ * 22:18:10 * * * * CENTRAL ALASKA
3.2 * * *M. @ * 21:37:00 * * * * SOUTHERN ALASKA
2.9 * * *M. @ * 20:11:57 * * * * SOUTHERN ALASKA
3 * * * *M. @ * 19:24:36 * * * * SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
3 * * * *M. @ * 19:11:28 * * * * VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
3.9 * * *M. @ * 17:46:04 * * * * ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REG., QUEBEC, CANADA
2.7 * * *M. @ * 17:45:42 * * * * CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2.7 * * *M. @ * 17:10:00 * * * * CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
3.1 * * *M. @ * 15:58:48 * * * * VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
3.2 * * *M. @ * 15:49:50 * * * * OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2.8 * * *M. @ * 14:48:29 * * * * COLORADO
3.8 * * *M. @ * 14:00:40 * * * * KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
3 * * * *M. @ * 11:39:28 * * * * SOUTHERN ALASKA
2.7 * * *M. @ * 09:30:49 * * * * KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
4.5 * * *M. @ * 06:54:33 * * * * COSTA RICA
4.5 * * *M. @ * 06:41:08 * * * * OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
3.4 * * *M. @ * 06:36:42 * * * * PUERTO RICO REGION
3.3 * * *M. @ * 06:31:34 * * * * VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
2.5 * * *M. @ * 05:15:48 * * * * SOUTHERN ALASKA
3.4 * * *M. @ * 04:23:34 * * * * KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
3 * * * *M. @ * 03:30:22 * * * * OKLAHOMA
2.7 * * *M. @ * 03:23:43 * * * * SOUTHERN ALASKA
2.9 * * *M. @ * 03:08:26 * * * * SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA
5 * * * *M. @ * 01:44:25 * * * * FIJI REGION
3.5 * * *M. @ * 00:59:36 * * * * SOUTHERN ALASKA
4.8 * * *M. @ * 00:19:37 * * * * NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

11th

4.8 * * *M. @ * 23:28:05 * * * * IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 * * *M. @ * 23:16:20 * * * * VANUATU
2.6 * * *M. @ * 22:29:59 * * * * PUERTO RICO
3.6 * * *M. @ * 21:47:34 * * * * BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
3 * * * *M. @ * 21:11:04 * * * * SOUTHERN ALASKA
2.7 * * *M. @ * 20:17:59 * * * * VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
2.6 * * *M. @ * 19:45:20 * * * * PUERTO RICO REGION
2.8 * * *M. @ * 16:51:49 * * * * PUERTO RICO REGION
4.3 * * *M. @ * 16:28:06 * * * * SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
4.2 * * *M. @ * 15:30:17 * * * * CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
3.3 * * *M. @ * 14:07:34 * * * * VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
5.2 * * *M. @ * 12:18:21 * * * * VANUATU REGION
4.4 * * *M. @ * 12:14:56 * * * * OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
2.5 * * *M. @ * 12:09:50 * * * * SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
4.4 * * *M. @ * 10:32:04 * * * * TAIWAN
4.4 * * *M. @ * 10:28:23 * * * * OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
3.6 * * *M. @ * 09:32:36 * * * * NORTHERN ALASKA
2.6 * * *M. @ * 09:11:53 * * * * SOUTHERN ALASKA
4.1 * * *M. @ * 08:02:02 * * * * OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.8 * * *M. @ * 06:18:28 * * * * MOLUCCA SEA
4.8 * * *M. @ * 05:37:03 * * * * OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION
2.6 * * *M. @ * 05:30:17 * * * * SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
5.1 * * *M. @ * 05:12:21 * * * * NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA
2.8 * * *M. @ * 01:33:41 * * * * FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
3.5 * * *M. @ * 01:08:23 * * * * NORTHERN ALASKA

Compared to a normal run which goes something like this:

4.7 M. @ 05:07:04 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 M. @ 04:58:51 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
4.2 M. @ 04:21:44 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR

From:

4.4 M. @ 04:15:24 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.2 M. @ 04:04:09 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA


Remember, you are just looking for anomalies. There is one here. *(Not
immediately striking, I admit. But it will seem more obvious when I
explain it. The thing is; do you want to have a shot at it while the
season is still open?)

Once you think you have it, put it with the other stuff you have
noticed going on now.

I seriously doubt anyone has bothered to follow me on this because it
is so startlingly obvious what has happened.
So I am going to pass it on to the others (not that I expect much from
them either.)

One last clue and I am going to call it a day:

Things started to defrost in Britain at twilight this morning. At this
time of year we only get 9 hours of light and it is mostly twilight at
that. Coupled with low overcast and it would appear the sun has gone
out.

But the wind got up because of the gas pressure laws and heat and
pressure and all that; what with the new lunar phase and all...

This is the forecast for the super-storm in the tropics at the time of
writing. I think it will drop rapidly from now on.

EVAN SW Pacific Current Data

14 Dec, 2012 8:01 GMT 13.0 S 172.1 W 100 kts Cat 3.
15 Dec, 2012 8:01 GMT 13.1 S 174.4 W 110 kts Cat 3.

Forecast

GMT Peak Wind Category

14 Dec, 12:00 105 kts 3

15 Dec, 00:00 110 kts 3

15 Dec, 12:00 110 kts 3

16 Dec, 00:00 105 kts 3

17 Dec, 00:00 095 kts 2

18 Dec, 00:00 085 kts 2

19 Dec, 00:00 070 kts 1

I'm following it on he

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
and will post bulletins to show the rate of change as they are
updated.

I can't honestly say any more without giving it away. (Plus the fact I
haven't actually checked to see if I am right yet. (But I usually am
so I think I can leave that to whoever wants a boring job.))

Now I had better set up an new thread for the following large
magnitude quakes. The other one was getting a little long.