http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

Midnight Friday according to the model run on the linked site as of:
Forecast for 06:00 UTC on Tuesday 4 December 2012
promises to begin a massive storm.

It begins with an injection of precipitate from South America on the
evening that spell starts. Which ocean I can't say.

On Dec 4, 6:25*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...ml?type=mslp-p....

Midnight Friday according to the model run on the linked site as of:
Forecast for 06:00 UTC on Tuesday 4 December 2012
promises to begin a massive storm.

It begins with an injection of precipitate from South America on the
evening that spell starts. Which ocean I can't say.

The third storm of the southern Indian Ocean just started. According
to:
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Three is only going to be a TS and then dissipate after 72 hours.
But isn't that how Bophar started?

On Dec 6, 7:26*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Dec 4, 6:25*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...ml?type=mslp-p....

Midnight Friday according to the model run on the linked site as of:
Forecast for 06:00 UTC on Tuesday 4 December 2012
promises to begin a massive storm.

It begins with an injection of precipitate from South America on the
evening that spell starts. Which ocean I can't say.

But I knew I had two choices. I should have said.
Never mind. Soon be summer.
Mustn't grumble.

Three is only going to be a TS and then dissipate after 72 hours.
But isn't that how Bophar started?

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-p...ngs/wp2612.gif

On Dec 7, 10:24*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Three is only going to be a TS and then dissipate after 72 hours.
But isn't that how Bophar started?

The Japanese quakes may have takes the sting out of the storm but
according to:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

....the storm continues unabated until midnight Sunday/Monday the 9th.
Just like the weather charts say.

Except that there is a drastic change on this one:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...me=00&Type=pnm
It has been corrected (one way or another) for the seismic activity we
have had of late.

I have no way of knowing what the Australian stuff is running on.
Memories perhaps?

On Dec 8, 12:23*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Dec 7, 10:24*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



Three is only going to be a TS and then dissipate after 72 hours.
But isn't that how Bophar started?

The Japanese quakes may have takes the sting out of the storm but
according to:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...ml?type=mslp-p....

...the storm continues unabated until midnight Sunday/Monday the 9th.
Just like the weather charts say.

Except that there is a drastic change on this one:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...our=12&Day=1&R...

It has been corrected (one way or another) for the seismic activity we
have had of late.

I have no way of knowing what the Australian stuff is running on.
Memories perhaps?

This signal series went:
Virgin Islands, California, Hawaii and Japan I must try to remember
that. It's a blooming nice day here. The snowbirds will be posting
their silly heads off in uk.sci.weather, probably wondering what's
going on.

It will be revealing, if not quite as interesting as it was.
Meanwhile things in Antarctica are just like the old days.
An exceptional input of blue on that chart turning into a dark disc
presages a large earthquake.

I believe the chief difficulty in the region is that the harmonic
changes drastically with the seasons. In summer when the sea ice is
extensive, the cyclonic weather can reach an acreage that exactly
matches the surface of the sea still liquid enough to support
cyclones.

Weather stations along the south coasts of Africa, Australia and South
America need to be supplied with sound monitoring equipment.

I dare say that there is suitable research into sub Antarctic ice
already. Unfortunately, this will all be in the secret repositories of
agencies that want £30 and more for the privilege of not being able to
understand what they will let you read.

Coupled with the winter ice melt, the Polar Low is diminished from
November on. None the less, Anticyclonic weather still has difficulty
traversing the constriction at 50 West. And that is where this signal
appeared.

So why do all the signal precipitation anomalies fail to reach the
continent?

Obviously in Winter, despite all the ice having melted in the sea, the
continent is still a formidable barrier to the Low Pressure areas.
This despite the fact that at "Sea Level" the Anticyclone called the
Polar High is only 1000 millibars or so (1010 mb at most.)

Issue day 8 Forecast day 9:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem.../cartes_e.html

It looks like another one to me but it may have just been this:

2012/12/08
5.1 M. @ 19:00. 7.2 S. 144.0 W. S. P.N.G.
5.7 M. @ 16:35. 7.2 S. 143.9 W. S. P.N.G.

Pairs and triples like this occur with the demise of a large storm.
But this aftrnoon before the sky filled with lower cloud I saw some
pretty extensive "Mares' Tail".

Cold snaps, frosts, heavy dews and Mares' Tail (high ice cloud in a
blue sky that looks like whisps) all indicate tropical storms. Mares'
Tail clouds, the most severe of them.

This was a pretty large example of that phenomenon.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

is still running true to it's earlier form. And it doesn't even break
cleanly. Sunday/Monday at midnight it comes apart. In the North
Atlantic it will look like a pretty divisive break up of whatever is
in it at the moment.

But I think the chart tomorrow for the North Atlantic will be full of
pink mice. Occluded fronts that mean lots and lots of quakes.
It beats me what the hell they mean with this thing:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...ime=1354816800

Just playing with the new web pages probably.

There have been lots of complaints with the Met Office's output over
the last few months. For some reason they always seem to generate
problems when they set about fixing things that ain't broke.

Talking about breakages I just cobbled an old drive and got back a
collection of their tropical storm data which they deleted from their
online site some time ago. So that was an unexpected gift. Not that it
exceeds what is available on the Unisys site.

So...
On with the game.

On Dec 9, 1:46*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Issue day 8 Forecast day 9:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem.../cartes_e.html

It looks like another one to me but it may have just been this:

2012/12/08
5.1 M. @ 19:00. 7.2 S. 144.0 W. *S. P.N.G.
5.7 M. @ 16:35. 7.2 S. 143.9 W. *S. P.N.G.

So...
On with the *game.

This still looks like it has potential for another 7.5 or so:
036h sea level pressure forecast valid on Dec 10, 2012 12 UTC.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...me=00&Type=pnm

Breaking by:

036h sea level pressure forecast valid on Dec 11, 2012 00 UTC.

What we need now is model turpitude and no more Mag 5s or greater. The
tropical storm fronts seem to be up for it, though the North Atlantic
is showing signs of duality.

Pity that.
Still; never mind eh?

On Dec 9, 8:38*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Issue day 8 Forecast day 9:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem.../cartes_e.html

It looks like another one to me but it may have just been this:

2012/12/08
5.1 M. @ 19:00. 7.2 S. 144.0 W. *S. P.N.G.
5.7 M. @ 16:35. 7.2 S. 143.9 W. *S. P.N.G.

So...
On with the *game.

This still looks like it has potential for another 7.5 or so:
036h sea level pressure forecast valid on Dec 10, 2012 12 UTC.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...our=36&Day=0&R...

Breaking by:

036h sea level pressure forecast valid on Dec 11, 2012 00 UTC.

What we need now is model turpitude and no more Mag 5s or greater. The
tropical storm fronts seem to be up for it, though the North Atlantic
is showing signs of duality.

Pity that.
Still; never mind eh?

2012/12/10 16:53
7.1 M. 6.5 S. 129.8 E. BANDA SEA.

Only a 7.1 but nobody's perfect.
And like I said elsewhere, I don't enjoy the references others have to
work with. Set levy!

Well I'm blowed the North Atlantic Chart from the Mess OfThis has an
analysis chart out showing the likelihood of a severe earthquake
sometime before publication.
Well done the British Government.
And well done the boys in the back room for at least preparing the
useless article. Not easy for you I am sure.

Surface pressure chart - Analysis
Issued at: 0600 on Mon 10 Dec 2012

Forecast chart (T+18)
Valid 3000 UTC Mon 08 Dec 2012

That's what it says.
The third chart is a forecast: (T+12).
Yet the legend on it states that is is:
"Valid 0000 UTC Tue 11 Dec 2012.

I'm better at forecasting earthquakes than I am at maths and I am not
exactly brilliant at forecasting earthquakes but even I can spot a
discrepancy. I suppose it comes with having an eye for anomalies.

Which kind of takes the wind out of my sails for the last chart in the
series today at the location linked.
It does indeed show another and yet more significant bout of severe
weather on its way. And this is how it works:

As previously stated elsewhere frosty weather; snow; mists; etc.;
etc., all betoken the likelihood of tropical disturbances, nee storms.
And with frost on the slates and car roofs here in sunny Stoke this
morning, I was expecting something promising but discarded it as the
present storm was still a Cat 3.

When a large cyclonic system appears in the North Atlantic it
generally indicates a Tropical Storm which then goes on according to
the situation and extent shown in the North Atlantic, to be an
hurricane.
Usually.

As seismic disturbances follow along storm front lines, the chances of
a large earthquake occurring are likely where two or more such fronts
meet and "end".

The charts on the above link were still showing the preposterous 3000
UTC Fri 06 Dec 2012 chart at 5 am this morning (
10 December 2012) so I had stopped looking at the damned thing.

(Fortunately they still publish the sensible one he
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._pressure.html
7 hours late and 30 hours short as usual but at least as accurate as
the best of them.)

Anyway it is now showing a large marked Tropical Storm gathering in
the same place as for Bophar at T+60 after coming apart as stated
(also in another thread.) (I'm not speculating on the Latitude and
Longitude; not even on the ocean.)

I actually got that from the BOM charts which, incidentally, don't
show a new storm budding -although they might be showing a resurgence
in the present situation.

On Dec 10, 9:39*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

2012/12/10 16:53
7.1 M. 6.5 S. 129.8 E. BANDA SEA.

Looks like we could get another. Maybe a 6.5 this time?
We are due for some multiple smaller ones.

Three in a row across Canada again but they are wobbly and there is an
anticyclone on the west of it. And it isn't as straight as it might
be.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem.../cartes_e.html
It all depends on how many Mag fives we get between now and tomorrow
evening.

On Dec 9, 1:46*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Pairs and triples like this occur with the demise of a large storm.
But this afternoon before the sky filled with lower cloud I saw some
pretty extensive "Mares' Tail".

What I saw filled the sky, or rather, most of the part of it in the
direction I was looking. I believe that behind me it was that stark,
cold blue of anticyclones in Winter in Britain.

What I was looking at was just the front edge of one of these
striations:

http://www.woksat.info/etcul09/ul09-1300-b-uk.html

And this is what it looks like to a demi-god:

http://www.woksat.info/etcul09m/ul09-msg-1200-uk.html

How small we are and how infinite is the majesty of its creator.
And yet, little as we are, what we see is what we get. It works
beautifully for man and beast.

And thanks too to Bernard Burton who will provide these images on disc
for a very small fee. How hastily we thank men when we owe so much to
the one we hesitate to praise.