"Alan [Surrey]" wrote in message
...
On Friday, December 7, 2012 9:51:46 AM UTC,
wrote:
"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message

ll.co.uk...

On Fri, 7 Dec 2012 09:02:09 -0000, Eskimo Will wrote:



Now underway ....



Now remind me, is that good or bad news for snow lovers? IIRC it was a

"stratwarm" that gave us one of the good (or bad depending on your POV)

winters 09/10 or 10/11.





It's brilliant news Dave!

COME ON :-)



Will

--

Will,

Which model(s) can handle this scenario better? Should we take the model
output with an even bigger pinch of salt?

Not sure, most major models now have better stratospheric resolution. They
are better than they were just a few years ago. As with all model outputs
you need to look for signals beyond day 3 not details. E.g. 06Z GFS has a
strong signal for warm occlusions to approach the SW later next week
threatening widespread frontal snow as the warm air glides over a very cold
surface layer. But the detail of how far north the front will get (and
milder air into the SW) is open to massive uncertainty. The stratwarm should
ensure maintenance of the Russian high but again where the centre will lie
is open to uncertainty but the signal for a rather classic winter
battleground is starting to appear now.

HTH

Will
--
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------