Now underway ....
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2012_merra.pdf

Will
--

On Fri, 7 Dec 2012 09:02:09 -0000, Eskimo Will wrote:

Now underway ....

Now remind me, is that good or bad news for snow lovers? IIRC it was a
"stratwarm" that gave us one of the good (or bad depending on your POV)
winters 09/10 or 10/11.

--
Cheers Dave.
Nr Garrigill, Cumbria. 421m ASL.

"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message
ll.co.uk...
On Fri, 7 Dec 2012 09:02:09 -0000, Eskimo Will wrote:

Now underway ....

Now remind me, is that good or bad news for snow lovers? IIRC it was a
"stratwarm" that gave us one of the good (or bad depending on your POV)
winters 09/10 or 10/11.


It's brilliant news Dave!
COME ON :-)

Will
--

On Friday, December 7, 2012 9:51:46 AM UTC, wrote:
"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message

ll.co.uk...

On Fri, 7 Dec 2012 09:02:09 -0000, Eskimo Will wrote:



Now underway ....



Now remind me, is that good or bad news for snow lovers? IIRC it was a

"stratwarm" that gave us one of the good (or bad depending on your POV)

winters 09/10 or 10/11.





It's brilliant news Dave!

COME ON :-)



Will

--

Will,

Which model(s) can handle this scenario better? Should we take the model output with an even bigger pinch of salt?

"Alan [Surrey]" wrote in message
...
On Friday, December 7, 2012 9:51:46 AM UTC,
wrote:
"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message

ll.co.uk...

On Fri, 7 Dec 2012 09:02:09 -0000, Eskimo Will wrote:



Now underway ....



Now remind me, is that good or bad news for snow lovers? IIRC it was a

"stratwarm" that gave us one of the good (or bad depending on your POV)

winters 09/10 or 10/11.





It's brilliant news Dave!

COME ON :-)



Will

--

Will,

Which model(s) can handle this scenario better? Should we take the model
output with an even bigger pinch of salt?

Not sure, most major models now have better stratospheric resolution. They
are better than they were just a few years ago. As with all model outputs
you need to look for signals beyond day 3 not details. E.g. 06Z GFS has a
strong signal for warm occlusions to approach the SW later next week
threatening widespread frontal snow as the warm air glides over a very cold
surface layer. But the detail of how far north the front will get (and
milder air into the SW) is open to massive uncertainty. The stratwarm should
ensure maintenance of the Russian high but again where the centre will lie
is open to uncertainty but the signal for a rather classic winter
battleground is starting to appear now.

HTH

Will
--
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message
ll.co.uk...
On Fri, 7 Dec 2012 09:02:09 -0000, Eskimo Will wrote:

Now underway ....

Now remind me, is that good or bad news for snow lovers? IIRC it was a
"stratwarm" that gave us one of the good (or bad depending on your POV)
winters 09/10 or 10/11.

It was Christmas 10/11 when there was lying snow here in Dorset. But the
stratwarm did not happen until later.
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2010_merra.pdf
Nor did it bring a return of snow to here.

OTOH, As I recall December 2010 did have a Siberian High, caused by heavy
snow, spreading westward which seems to be what is happening now. So
perhaps we are heading for a W....
C........ :-)

Cheers, Alastair.

On Friday, December 7, 2012 9:02:09 AM UTC, wrote:
Now underway ....

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2012_merra.pdf



Will

--

You should know better and you don't seem to have learned from last year and the year before Will! To ramp the possibility of snow at this stage from an SSW event ("stratwarm" is a poor term) is just that - "ramping"; a winter daftness by people who desperately want it to snow.

For cold (not snow, in the first place) to happen from an SSW event, the reversal of the higher level winds has to be transmitted to the troposphere and this then this has to cause blocking. Neither is certain, though both may happen. The blocking then has to sit in the right position in the Northern hemisphere and if it sits close to the UK (not certain) it has to sit in a position to draw cold air our way (i.e. generally to our west, or to our North). Neither is certain. *Then* amd only then poor robin may have to tuck its head under it's wing in the run-up to Christmas.

If all these factors follow on sequentially, we may get cold conditions with a risk of snow for some/many. That little word *if* was huge by its absence in your post Will and you really should know better.

An SSW is under way, I agree, but the present situation looks like it may be a weak event and even that it may be almost over before it has developed into anything major. The forecasts are not "brilliant". Whether it will affect the UK with snow and be "brilliant news" followed by "COME ON" is..........well, I'll leave that up to the reader to fill in. *))

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Friday, December 7, 2012 9:02:09 AM UTC,
wrote:
Now underway ....

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2012_merra.pdf



Will

--

You should know better and you don't seem to have learned from last year and
the year before Will! To ramp the possibility of snow at this stage from an
SSW event ("stratwarm" is a poor term) is just that - "ramping"; a winter
daftness by people who desperately want it to snow.

For cold (not snow, in the first place) to happen from an SSW event, the
reversal of the higher level winds has to be transmitted to the troposphere
and this then this has to cause blocking. Neither is certain, though both
may happen. The blocking then has to sit in the right position in the
Northern hemisphere and if it sits close to the UK (not certain) it has to
sit in a position to draw cold air our way (i.e. generally to our west, or
to our North). Neither is certain. *Then* amd only then poor robin may have
to tuck its head under it's wing in the run-up to Christmas.

If all these factors follow on sequentially, we may get cold conditions with
a risk of snow for some/many. That little word *if* was huge by its absence
in your post Will and you really should know better.

An SSW is under way, I agree, but the present situation looks like it may be
a weak event and even that it may be almost over before it has developed
into anything major. The forecasts are not "brilliant". Whether it will
affect the UK with snow and be "brilliant news" followed by "COME ON"
is.........well, I'll leave that up to the reader to fill in. *))
======================

Well that's me told off. LOL :-)

Will
--

On Friday, December 7, 2012 12:06:54 PM UTC, wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

On Friday, December 7, 2012 9:02:09 AM UTC,

wrote:

Now underway ....



http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2012_merra.pdf







Will



--



You should know better and you don't seem to have learned from last year and

the year before Will! To ramp the possibility of snow at this stage from an

SSW event ("stratwarm" is a poor term) is just that - "ramping"; a winter

daftness by people who desperately want it to snow.



For cold (not snow, in the first place) to happen from an SSW event, the

reversal of the higher level winds has to be transmitted to the troposphere

and this then this has to cause blocking. Neither is certain, though both

may happen. The blocking then has to sit in the right position in the

Northern hemisphere and if it sits close to the UK (not certain) it has to

sit in a position to draw cold air our way (i.e. generally to our west, or

to our North). Neither is certain. *Then* amd only then poor robin may have

to tuck its head under it's wing in the run-up to Christmas.



If all these factors follow on sequentially, we may get cold conditions with

a risk of snow for some/many. That little word *if* was huge by its absence

in your post Will and you really should know better.



An SSW is under way, I agree, but the present situation looks like it may be

a weak event and even that it may be almost over before it has developed

into anything major. The forecasts are not "brilliant". Whether it will

affect the UK with snow and be "brilliant news" followed by "COME ON"

is.........well, I'll leave that up to the reader to fill in. *))

======================



Well that's me told off. LOL :-)



Will

--

You deserved to be - and you know it. Tell me something in that post which was incorrect. *))

On Friday, December 7, 2012 12:09:17 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, December 7, 2012 12:06:54 PM UTC, wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message



...



On Friday, December 7, 2012 9:02:09 AM UTC,



wrote:



Now underway ....







http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2012_merra.pdf















Will







--







You should know better and you don't seem to have learned from last year and



the year before Will! To ramp the possibility of snow at this stage from an



SSW event ("stratwarm" is a poor term) is just that - "ramping"; a winter



daftness by people who desperately want it to snow.







For cold (not snow, in the first place) to happen from an SSW event, the



reversal of the higher level winds has to be transmitted to the troposphere



and this then this has to cause blocking. Neither is certain, though both



may happen. The blocking then has to sit in the right position in the



Northern hemisphere and if it sits close to the UK (not certain) it has to



sit in a position to draw cold air our way (i.e. generally to our west, or



to our North). Neither is certain. *Then* amd only then poor robin may have



to tuck its head under it's wing in the run-up to Christmas.







If all these factors follow on sequentially, we may get cold conditions with



a risk of snow for some/many. That little word *if* was huge by its absence



in your post Will and you really should know better.







An SSW is under way, I agree, but the present situation looks like it may be



a weak event and even that it may be almost over before it has developed



into anything major. The forecasts are not "brilliant". Whether it will



affect the UK with snow and be "brilliant news" followed by "COME ON"



is.........well, I'll leave that up to the reader to fill in. *))



======================







Well that's me told off. LOL :-)







Will



--



You deserved to be - and you know it. Tell me something in that post which was incorrect. *))

Just one thing from the first "you" to the last *)), Will

Bet you can't.