Very disappointed tonight to see such a dreary, Atlantic-dominated
outlook after having avoided looking at the models and this group for
a few days in the hope that the snowy spell would materialise. Instead
2012 looks to go out in typically 2012-like style. The 15 to 30 day
forecast seems to offer no hope whatsoever for any sustained dry
weather, never mind cold, so what are people's feelings on this? Are
we locked into a pattern for the winter now, and we're heading for a
mild, wet, zonal winter a la 1997/98, 1994/95 or 1989/90 with little
hope for change until (as often happens) late Jan? Or could things
change back still before that?

Nick

Nick wrote:
Very disappointed tonight to see such a dreary, Atlantic-dominated
outlook after having avoided looking at the models and this group for
a few days in the hope that the snowy spell would materialise. Instead
2012 looks to go out in typically 2012-like style. The 15 to 30 day
forecast seems to offer no hope whatsoever for any sustained dry
weather, never mind cold, so what are people's feelings on this? Are
we locked into a pattern for the winter now, and we're heading for a
mild, wet, zonal winter a la 1997/98, 1994/95 or 1989/90 with little
hope for change until (as often happens) late Jan? Or could things
change back still before that?

Nick
-------------------------
Frankly I still maintain nobody knows, especially after more than two
weeks. Looks stuck at least until Christmas.
Dave

"Nick" wrote in message
...
Very disappointed tonight to see such a dreary, Atlantic-dominated
outlook after having avoided looking at the models and this group for
a few days in the hope that the snowy spell would materialise. Instead
2012 looks to go out in typically 2012-like style. The 15 to 30 day
forecast seems to offer no hope whatsoever for any sustained dry
weather, never mind cold, so what are people's feelings on this? Are
we locked into a pattern for the winter now, and we're heading for a
mild, wet, zonal winter a la 1997/98, 1994/95 or 1989/90 with little
hope for change until (as often happens) late Jan? Or could things
change back still before that?

Nick

With the amount of long distance driving I have to do I hope the Atlantic
does win, It can stay mild and wet as long as it likes ;-)

Rob

There are some changes which may be of interest - a stratospheric warming
event likely to start in the next few days running into N America and then
maintained to the end of GFS run with support from EC. The polar vortex is
relocated from NE Canada /NW Greenland 80W to off the N of Russia 80E but is
not forecast to split as in the Jan 2009 winter, which in that case led to a
reversal of the westerly over UK/Europe.

Interesting to see what impacts result from a late December more northerly
stratospheric flow over UK - of course forecasts can change!.

Not sure if this stratospheric change is the reason that CFS2 monthly
forecast for Jan 2013 jumped from cold over UK to above normal temps in runs
after 2 DEC. Similar changes to less cold can be seen in other seasonal
output including MO which now has a less cold JFM than earlier runs. Some
seasonal output has indicated very high positive temperature anomalies
across N Scandinavia and N Russia for Jan (eg NASA GSM output). SO far MO
seasonal has been correct at indicating colder than normal.

Most web available seasonal output over the last several months has been
poor with regards to precipitation but those that signal less cold temps
this time also show above normal precipitation.

Seasonal output from IRI, JMA and KMA still to come so may be able to see if
later data suggest anything different.

In article
,
Nick writes:
Very disappointed tonight to see such a dreary, Atlantic-dominated
outlook after having avoided looking at the models and this group for
a few days in the hope that the snowy spell would materialise. Instead
2012 looks to go out in typically 2012-like style. The 15 to 30 day
forecast seems to offer no hope whatsoever for any sustained dry
weather, never mind cold, so what are people's feelings on this? Are
we locked into a pattern for the winter now, and we're heading for a
mild, wet, zonal winter a la 1997/98, 1994/95 or 1989/90 with little
hope for change until (as often happens) late Jan? Or could things
change back still before that?

Nick

There's bags of time for it to change. The 00Z GFS ensemble quite
strongly suggests that there could be a brief cold spell starting as
little as 11 days away, though it doesn't look like lasting for more
than a few days. (The operational run was a mild outlier at that stage.)
On the other hand the ECMWF out to 10 days doesn't seem to show much
scope for a cold spell developing.

Over at least the next 10 days the weather doesn't seem to become fully
zonal. Instead lows approach us from the Atlantic but then stall over to
or just to the west of the British Isles, "fended off" by an intense and
persistent anticyclone over northern European Russia. So though it will
be mild over most of the UK, it looks like remaining cold over
Scandinavia and eastern Europe, which means that should the pattern
change it could turn cold quite swiftly.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

In article ,
John Hall writes:
The 00Z GFS ensemble quite
strongly suggests that there could be a brief cold spell starting as
little as 11 days away, though it doesn't look like lasting for more
than a few days.

But of course it's not there on the 12Z.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

"The 00Z GFS ensemble quite
strongly suggests that there could be a brief cold spell starting as
little as 11 days away, though it doesn't look like lasting for more
than a few days.

But of course it's not there on the 12Z.
--
Just more fantasy

I don't bother looking more that a few days ahead, complete waste of time &
effort!!

Why is it these models can only predict mild conditions 5 to 8 days ahead
but are totally useless at predicting cold conditions?

I really don't know why anyone bothers unless of course they are looking for
a zonal winter, which this could quite well end up as one


Graham

In article ,
Graham writes:


"The 00Z GFS ensemble quite
strongly suggests that there could be a brief cold spell starting as
little as 11 days away, though it doesn't look like lasting for more
than a few days.

But of course it's not there on the 12Z.

Just more fantasy

I don't bother looking more that a few days ahead, complete waste of time & effort!!

Why is it these models can only predict mild conditions 5 to 8 days ahead but are totally useless at predicting cold conditions?

There's not much use looking at the operational run that far ahead, I
agree, but if there's a strong signal from the ensemble then it can
sometimes indicate that something is up. Equally of course, as in this
case, it can prove to be a mirage.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

On Dec 12, 9:18*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

*Graham writes:

"The 00Z GFS ensemble quite
strongly suggests that there could be a brief cold spell starting as
little as 11 days away, though it doesn't look like lasting for more
than a few days.

But of course it's not there on the 12Z.
Just more fantasy

I don't bother looking more that a few days ahead, complete waste of time & effort!!

Why is it these models can only predict mild conditions 5 to 8 days ahead but are totally useless at predicting cold conditions?

There's not much use looking at the operational run that far ahead, I
agree, but if there's a strong signal from the ensemble then it can
sometimes indicate that something is up. Equally of course, as in this
case, it can prove to be a mirage.
--
John Hall

* * * * * "Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Oscar Wilde

Just as a case in point I saved a chart from the 00z run last
Wednesday when it was hinting that we'd be in the grip of an easterly
blast, complete with -10c uppers, by tomorrow (Thursday) lunchtime.
Instead by this time tomorrow our upper air will most probably be of
Atlantic origin...