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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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The forecast for today was mostly dull and cloudy yet from late
morning there has been many sunny breaks - indeed when the sun has come out it has been quite pleasant - so much so that folk at the greengrocer's said it was "like spring". Liam Dutton, to name but one forecaster, said there's been more sun around than he thought. During other anticyclones the forecast has frequently been the opposite - dull and grey when the forecast has been for sunshine. Is there any way that forecasting cloud amounts in these synoptic set- ups will ever improve - it seems to catch out the forecasters time and again? |
#2
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On Fri, 4 Jan 2013 05:19:21 -0800 (PST), Scott W
wrote: Is there any way that forecasting cloud amounts in these synoptic set- ups will ever improve - it seems to catch out the forecasters time and again? The problem is that it only takes a very small change (usually in humidity in a very shallow layer, but also could be inversion height) for the cloudy/cloudless threshold to be crossed. It is a very tricky parameter to forecast. If you get your forecast dewpoint half a degree out then your cloud forecast could be 100% wrong. Having an atmospheric model with a very fine vertical resolution (levels every few hPa) would be a start, but your assimilation of observed initial conditions probably needs equal attention. -- Freddie Bayston Hill Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx*for hourly reports* |
#3
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Scott W wrote:
.... indeed when the sun has come out it has been quite pleasant - so much so that folk at the greengrocer's said it was "like spring". ---------------------------- Scott, you old hell raiser! Dave |
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