Apparently this has been written in consultation with very senior "suits"
and not just by the forecasters. Shows the increasing concern for the
weather in the second half of January. At some stage commitment is required
one way or the other.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

In article ,
Eskimo Will writes:
Apparently this has been written in consultation with very senior
"suits" and not just by the forecasters. Shows the increasing
concern for the weather in the second half of January. At some
stage commitment is required one way or the other.

I see that, with the 00Z runs, the GFS operational run has fallen into
line with the ECMWF in bringing in a spell of easterlies. The two models
diverge thereafter. GFS brings back "normal" conditions after a few days
whereas the ECM is still keen to follow the easterly with a northerly
(though perhaps not quite as quickly or quite as strong as the 12Z was
indicating).

The GFS operational run is at the cold "end" of its ensemble, though the
cold spell does show up in the mean solution. There an unusually wide
spread of ensemble temperatures from as early as six days out, with
850mb values of anything between -8C and +3C possible.

The UKMO operational run seems to be out on its own, with no sign of
anything cold developing up to T+144.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

On Jan 6, 9:15*am, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Eskimo Will writes:

Apparently this has been written in consultation with very senior
"suits" and not just by the forecasters. Shows the increasing
concern for the weather in the second half of January. At some
stage commitment is required one way or the other.

I see that, with the 00Z runs, the GFS operational run has fallen into
line with the ECMWF in bringing in a spell of easterlies. The two models
diverge thereafter. GFS brings back "normal" conditions after a few days
whereas the ECM is still keen to follow the easterly with a northerly
(though perhaps not quite as quickly or quite as strong as the 12Z was
indicating).

The GFS operational run is at the cold "end" of its ensemble, though the
cold spell does show up in the mean solution. There an unusually wide
spread of ensemble temperatures from as early as six days out, with
850mb values of anything between -8C and +3C possible.

The UKMO operational run seems to be out on its own, with no sign of
anything cold developing up to T+144.
--
John Hall

* * * * * "Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Oscar Wilde

'anything between -8C and +3C possible'

That is consistent with the original forecast which stated 'great
uncertainty'.

I have often wondered about these wordings.

I guess in terms of unusual cold, great uncertainty means 25%
probability.
Uncertainty means 50% probability.

75% probabilty or more would lead to a statement about confidence in
it happening.

I am right?

Len
Wembury

and todays update shows no clarity either
everything very uncertain it says...

im expecting the countryfile to show no cold options either, probably only out to weds/thurs

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_alltext.html

On Sunday, 6 January 2013 08:35:17 UTC, wrote:
Apparently this has been written in consultation with very senior "suits"

and not just by the forecasters. Shows the increasing concern for the

weather in the second half of January. At some stage commitment is required

one way or the other.



Will

--

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

---------------------------------------------

wrote in message
...
and todays update shows no clarity either
everything very uncertain it says...

im expecting the countryfile to show no cold options either, probably only
out to weds/thurs

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_alltext.html

The CF forecast actually went further than normal, suggesting the
*possibility*
of high pressure to our north by next weekend, and resultant cold
easterlies.
They don't normally stick their necks out that far.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Jan 6, 1:16*pm, "Col" wrote:
wrote in message

...

and todays update shows no clarity either
everything very uncertain it says...

im expecting the countryfile to show no cold options either, probably only
out to weds/thurs

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_alltext.html

The CF forecast actually went further than normal, suggesting the
*possibility*
of high pressure to our north by next weekend, and resultant cold
easterlies.
They don't normally stick their necks out that far.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Yes, Chris Fawkes on Weather for Week Ahead forecast (1235) said
'there was a bit of uncertainty'.

Which is more confident than saying 'great uncertainty'.

Temps a little below average anyway from mid-week after the cold front
goes through, but not particularly cooler for SW England.

We will have to wait for the easterlies.

Len
Wembury

On Sunday, 6 January 2013 13:16:35 UTC, Col wrote:
wrote in message

...

and todays update shows no clarity either

everything very uncertain it says...



im expecting the countryfile to show no cold options either, probably only

out to weds/thurs



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_alltext.html



The CF forecast actually went further than normal, suggesting the

*possibility*

of high pressure to our north by next weekend, and resultant cold

easterlies.

They don't normally stick their necks out that far.

--

Col



Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Yes saw that Col. interesting next weekend and as the forecaster said there is a lot of uncertainty after that. I can only assume that at that range there are now many contradictory signals?

I-0 to SSW at the moment, but with plenty of the match still to go.

On Jan 6, 8:35*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
Apparently this has been written in consultation with very senior "suits"
and not just by the forecasters. Shows the increasing concern for the
weather in the second half of January. At some stage commitment is required
one way or the other.

Nice link.