Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Sunday. Issued
0604z, 24/09/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
A ridge covers Scotland, bringing easterlies for England and Wales. Low
pressure lies over Biscay, but by T+144 it moves over eastern France and
deepens. Northerlies cover much of England and Wales, with westerlies for
northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Northerlies cover the whole
of the UK at T+168, with a ridge to the NW of the UK.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The UK lies mostly under westerlies and NW'lies, witha ridge over Scotland
and the Irish Sea. By T+144 the winds become WSW'lies and SW'lies, as a
trough from the Icelandic low moves eastwards towards Ireland.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
Northerlies cover England, eastern Scotland and Wales, due to a ridge cover
Scotland. The rest of Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under westerlies,
with little change at T+120 as the ridge sinks slowly southwards. 850hPa
temperatures range from freezing over southern Scotland and northern England
to +4C over Norfolk. A westerly flow covers the UK at T+144, as the ridge
moves over Biscay. By T+168 a small low covers NW France, leading to NE'lies
over England and Wales. Another ridge covers Scotland, bringing northerlies
there and for Northern Ireland. The main Atlantic high sinks SE'wards slowly
on day 8, as does the ridge which now covers England and Wales. Scotland and
Northern Ireland lie under westerlies, while much of England and Wales are
affected by northerlies. NNW'lies cover the whole of the UK on day 9, as the
main high builds and continues to move SE'wards. By day 10 the high builds
further and drifts southwards, moving ever closer to the Azores. Meanwhile,
the UK still lies under NNW'lies, with yet another ridge to the NW of
Scotland.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
As withe the other runs, a ridge covers part of the UK - but this time, it's
over England and Wales, with westerlies further north. The ridge declines in
situ at T+120, with 850hPa temperatures between +1C over much of England and
Wales to +3C over northern Scotland. A trough moves across the UK at T+144,
with WSW'lies for most (and westerlies for Northern Ireland).

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows a high over Ureland, with light northerlies for most
of the UK. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over Scotland, Northern
Ireland and Wales to +1C over SE England. By T+144 high pressure moves over
England and Wales, with southerlies for Northern Ireland and SW'lies over
Scotland. A shallow low to the west deepens by 20hPa so that by T+168 it
brings strong SSE'lies and SE'lies over the UK.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The T+108 chart shows agreement of a high east of Newfoundland (with a low
to the SE), low pressure near Iceland and a ridge over the UK.

In summary, today's runs show a ridge influencing the UK on Sunday and
Monday, with northerlies and westerlies likely. It also looks likely for
another ridge to bring a further northerly spell around the middle of next
week, as the main high stays well to the west - although the models diverge
with the positioning of the high by then. As ever, though, more runs are
needed.