.... the Exeter/EGRR PROG VT 26/1200Z here ...

http://bethyngalw.nowster.me.uk/charts/UKCpf024.png
[accessed 25/1935Z]

has central pressure in mid-North Atlantic down to 928 mbar. We'd have
to get down to the realms of 916-ish mbar for 'record-breakers', but
anything below 930 is still in the 'interesting' category: I don't have
a detailed database of these, but Stephen Burt who has made an extensive
study of such has noted a similar figure (i.e. 928 mbar) in March of
2003 (8th).

It is a *forecast* of course so it will be interesting to see what the
actual value comes out as. Sometimes the models over-cook these things
for various reasons - the UK NAE used to have a latent-heat exchange
problem in this respect but not sure if this is still the case.

Martin.


--
West Moors / East Dorset
Lat: 50deg 49.25'N, Long: 01deg 53.05'W
Height (amsl): 17 m (56 feet)
COL category: C1 overall

Does your database record the lowest pressure ever measured in the UK?

On Jan 25, 7:42*pm, Martin Rowley
wrote:
... the Exeter/EGRR PROG VT 26/1200Z here ...

http://bethyngalw.nowster.me.uk/charts/UKCpf024.png
[accessed 25/1935Z]

has central pressure in mid-North Atlantic down to 928 mbar. We'd have
to get down to the realms of 916-ish mbar for 'record-breakers', but
anything below 930 is still in the 'interesting' category: I don't have
a detailed database of these, but Stephen Burt who has made an extensive
study of such has noted a similar figure (i.e. 928 mbar) in March of
2003 (8th).

It is a *forecast* of course so it will be interesting to see what the
actual value comes out as. Sometimes the models over-cook these things
for various reasons - the UK NAE used to have a latent-heat exchange
problem in this respect but not sure if this is still the case.

Martin.

--
West Moors / East Dorset
Lat: 50deg 49.25'N, Long: 01deg 53.05'W
Height (amsl): 17 m (56 feet)
COL category: C1 overall

Using George's rule, Martin, with today's midday 500mb data to the
east of Newfoundland from the Uni of Wyoming site, the maximum
deepening I could get from the nomogram was 35mb in the next 24 hours.
The UK Met.O 1200Z synoptic had the central pressure at 967mb, so this
would give 932mb for 1200Z Saturday.

Dick Lovett

On Jan 25, 7:47*pm, Lindisfarne Poacher lindisfarnepoac...@spam-me-
notgmail.com wrote:
Does your database record the lowest pressure ever measured in the UK?

Apparently the lowest is

925.6mb at Ochertyre, near Crieff, Perthshire on the 26th January 1884



http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/489...ded-in-the-uk/

Len

Len Wood wrote:
On Jan 25, 7:47 pm, Lindisfarne Poacher lindisfarnepoac...@spam-me-
notgmail.com wrote:
Does your database record the lowest pressure ever measured in the UK?

Apparently the lowest is

925.6mb at Ochertyre, near Crieff, Perthshire on the 26th January 1884



http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/489...ded-in-the-uk/

Fascinating link - thanks!

On 25/01/2013 20:27, Dick wrote:
On Jan 25, 7:42 pm, Martin Rowley
wrote:
... the Exeter/EGRR PROG VT 26/1200Z here ...

http://bethyngalw.nowster.me.uk/charts/UKCpf024.png
[accessed 25/1935Z]

has central pressure in mid-North Atlantic down to 928 mbar. We'd have
to get down to the realms of 916-ish mbar for 'record-breakers', but
anything below 930 is still in the 'interesting' category: I don't have
a detailed database of these, but Stephen Burt who has made an extensive
study of such has noted a similar figure (i.e. 928 mbar) in March of
2003 (8th).

It is a *forecast* of course so it will be interesting to see what the
actual value comes out as. Sometimes the models over-cook these things
for various reasons - the UK NAE used to have a latent-heat exchange
problem in this respect but not sure if this is still the case.


Using George's rule, Martin, with today's midday 500mb data to the
east of Newfoundland from the Uni of Wyoming site, the maximum
deepening I could get from the nomogram was 35mb in the next 24 hours.
The UK Met.O 1200Z synoptic had the central pressure at 967mb, so this
would give 932mb for 1200Z Saturday.

Dick Lovett

.... well, you never know: it may be that it will turn out at that value
- we'll have to see.

Martin.


--
West Moors / East Dorset
Lat: 50deg 49.25'N, Long: 01deg 53.05'W
Height (amsl): 17 m (56 feet)
COL category: C1 overall

"Len Wood" wrote in message
...
On Jan 25, 7:47 pm, Lindisfarne Poacher lindisfarnepoac...@spam-me-
notgmail.com wrote:
Does your database record the lowest pressure ever measured in the UK?

Apparently the lowest is

925.6mb at Ochertyre, near Crieff, Perthshire on the 26th January 1884



http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/489...ded-in-the-uk/

Len

That month turned out extremely mild in southern England,there wasn't even
an airfrost at Kew !
signs of things to come ?? (don't tell Piers)

RonB

On 25/01/2013 20:27, Dick wrote:
lots of snips

Using George's rule, Martin, with today's midday 500mb data to the
east of Newfoundland from the Uni of Wyoming site, the maximum
deepening I could get from the nomogram was 35mb in the next 24 hours.
The UK Met.O 1200Z synoptic had the central pressure at 967mb, so this
would give 932mb for 1200Z Saturday.

Dick Lovett

.... at 12Z, it's looking around 938 mbar (from meteocentre.com site), so
it might be 1-0 in favour of JJ George and R Lovett!

We'll have to wait to see the various 'official' analyses of course and
it may not have finished deepening: the 'rule' tried to predict maximum
deepening rather than spot time central pressure values, so the 932
might be quite near the mark.

Martin.


--
West Moors / East Dorset
Lat: 50deg 49.25'N, Long: 01deg 53.05'W
Height (amsl): 17 m (56 feet)
COL category: C1 overall

On 26/01/2013 12:43, Martin Rowley wrote:
On 25/01/2013 20:27, Dick wrote:
lots of snips

Using George's rule, Martin, with today's midday 500mb data to the
east of Newfoundland from the Uni of Wyoming site, the maximum
deepening I could get from the nomogram was 35mb in the next 24 hours.
The UK Met.O 1200Z synoptic had the central pressure at 967mb, so this
would give 932mb for 1200Z Saturday.

Dick Lovett

... at 12Z, it's looking around 938 mbar (from meteocentre.com site), so
it might be 1-0 in favour of JJ George and R Lovett!

We'll have to wait to see the various 'official' analyses of course and
it may not have finished deepening: the 'rule' tried to predict maximum
deepening rather than spot time central pressure values, so the 932
might be quite near the mark.

Martin.


.... actually, it has been down to 934 mbar at 06Z which I failed to
appreciate - so perhaps it was even closer to Dick's calculation?

Martin.


--
West Moors / East Dorset
Lat: 50deg 49.25'N, Long: 01deg 53.05'W
Height (amsl): 17 m (56 feet)
COL category: C1 overall

On 26/01/2013 13:31, Martin Rowley wrote:
We'll have to wait to see the various 'official' analyses of course and
it may not have finished deepening: the 'rule' tried to predict maximum
deepening rather than spot time central pressure values, so the 932
might be quite near the mark.
... actually, it has been down to 934 mbar at 06Z which I failed to
appreciate - so perhaps it was even closer to Dick's calculation?


.... and on the ASXX from Exeter: 932! Pretty good outcome - whether or
not it actually drifts a little lower, nearer the 928 mbar of
yesterday's forecast is not relevant: it does demonstrate that properly
applied, these 'legacy' methods still have some validity!

Martin.



--
West Moors / East Dorset
Lat: 50deg 49.25'N, Long: 01deg 53.05'W
Height (amsl): 17 m (56 feet)
COL category: C1 overall