On Tuesday, 5 February 2013 00:09:20 UTC, Adam Lea wrote:
On 04/02/13 22:46, Lawrence13 wrote: On Monday, 4 February 2013 22:46:02 UTC, Adam Lea wrote: On 04/02/13 19:58, Len Wood wrote: On Feb 4, 6:13 pm, willie wrote: On Monday, February 4, 2013 1:45:17 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote: God I've just been to Tesco's for some OXO cubes and they are completely out of stock !!!! LOL, Just seen a nice piece on 4th Feb 1963 on our local Spotlight BBC news. Impressive pics of cars buried with just aerials showing and steam locos buried in drifts on Dartmoor. Would this happen today? No chance. Now that would presumably a red warning? It was inconvenient then but everyone survived. Bet many of the pensioners didn't. Do you realise who you're replying to Adam? Yes.. Your point being?

"Yes " meaning what . It was addressed to me or it was addressed to Len Wood ?

On 05/02/13 10:47, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Tuesday, 5 February 2013 00:09:20 UTC, Adam Lea wrote:
On 04/02/13 22:46, Lawrence13 wrote: On Monday, 4 February 2013 22:46:02 UTC, Adam Lea wrote: On 04/02/13 19:58, Len Wood wrote: On Feb 4, 6:13 pm, willie wrote: On Monday, February 4, 2013 1:45:17 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote: God I've just been to Tesco's for some OXO cubes and they are completely out of stock !!!! LOL, Just seen a nice piece on 4th Feb 1963 on our local Spotlight BBC news. Impressive pics of cars buried with just aerials showing and steam locos buried in drifts on Dartmoor. Would this happen today? No chance. Now that would presumably a red warning? It was inconvenient then but everyone survived. Bet many of the pensioners didn't. Do you realise who you're replying to Adam? Yes. Your point being?

"Yes " meaning what . It was addressed to me or it was addressed to Len Wood ?

Len Wood.

On Tuesday, 5 February 2013 19:40:08 UTC, Adam Lea wrote:
On 05/02/13 10:47, Lawrence13 wrote:

On Tuesday, 5 February 2013 00:09:20 UTC, Adam Lea wrote:

On 04/02/13 22:46, Lawrence13 wrote: On Monday, 4 February 2013 22:46:02 UTC, Adam Lea wrote: On 04/02/13 19:58, Len Wood wrote: On Feb 4, 6:13 pm, willie wrote: On Monday, February 4, 2013 1:45:17 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote: God I've just been to Tesco's for some OXO cubes and they are completely out of stock !!!! LOL, Just seen a nice piece on 4th Feb 1963 on our local Spotlight BBC news. Impressive pics of cars buried with just aerials showing and steam locos buried in drifts on Dartmoor. Would this happen today? No chance. Now that would presumably a red warning? It was inconvenient then but everyone survived. Bet many of the pensioners didn't. Do you realise who you're replying to Adam? Yes. Your point being?



"Yes " meaning what . It was addressed to me or it was addressed to Len Wood ?



Len Wood.

Okay got it now.

On Feb 5, 1:48*am, wrote:
On Monday, February 4, 2013 10:46:02 PM UTC, Adam Lea wrote:
On 04/02/13 19:58, Len Wood wrote:

On Feb 4, 6:13 pm, willie

wrote:

On Monday, February 4, 2013 1:45:17 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote:

God I've just been to Tesco's for some OXO cubes and they are completely out of stock !!!!

LOL,

Just seen a nice piece on 4th Feb 1963 on our local Spotlight BBC

news.

Impressive pics of cars buried with just aerials showing and steam

locos buried in drifts on Dartmoor.

Would this happen today? No chance.

Now that would presumably a red warning?

It was inconvenient then but everyone survived.

Bet many of the pensioners didn't.

According to the ONS, the excess winter mortality for the UK '62/63 was 89,600. That's nearly ninety thousand extra dead people caused by excessive cold. Mild, wet, 'tropical muck' winters? 'Bring It On!' is what I say.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I apoligise for my flippancy.
89,600 dead is definitely more than inconvenient..
There would have been far fewer dead if we had had the present UKMO
warning system in place don't you think Lawrence?
A red warning for snow would have halved the number dead.

You can reply to me Lawrence if you like.
;-)

Len

On Tuesday, 5 February 2013 20:54:25 UTC, Len Wood wrote:
On Feb 5, 1:48*am, wrote:

On Monday, February 4, 2013 10:46:02 PM UTC, Adam Lea wrote:

On 04/02/13 19:58, Len Wood wrote:



On Feb 4, 6:13 pm, willie



wrote:



On Monday, February 4, 2013 1:45:17 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote:



God I've just been to Tesco's for some OXO cubes and they are completely out of stock !!!!



LOL,



Just seen a nice piece on 4th Feb 1963 on our local Spotlight BBC



news.



Impressive pics of cars buried with just aerials showing and steam



locos buried in drifts on Dartmoor.



Would this happen today? No chance.



Now that would presumably a red warning?



It was inconvenient then but everyone survived.



Bet many of the pensioners didn't.



According to the ONS, the excess winter mortality for the UK '62/63 was 89,600. That's nearly ninety thousand extra dead people caused by excessive cold. Mild, wet, 'tropical muck' winters? 'Bring It On!' is what I say.- Hide quoted text -



- Show quoted text -



I apoligise for my flippancy.

89,600 dead is definitely more than inconvenient..

There would have been far fewer dead if we had had the present UKMO

warning system in place don't you think Lawrence?

A red warning for snow would have halved the number dead.



You can reply to me Lawrence if you like.

;-)



Len

I'll reply to you Len. No the winter of 62/63 was objectivleyand exceptionally harsh . People died of bitter weather for all sorts of reasons, hypothermia, strokes, heart attacks and respiratory problemms caused by the smog in Nov/Dec and the buses stall ran take note folks.


As you say Len no amount of Red warnings would have changed that in 62/63. I'd be interested to see those statistics as stuff like that is ahrd to find.

However for anyone to suggest that the Red warnings system would prevent pensioner dying in a severe winter like 62/63 is daft. People die due to lack of heating and neglect and no red warning system in that winter would have made anu difference whatsover.

But to even suggest that a cold spell now is every bit as severe as those far off days of 62/63 . before central heating, before double glazing and insulation, before warden flats and personal alarm systems is not talking sense.

The coloured warnings are used far too readily and I would suggest, no I would state that the elderly in the UK are infinitley more at risk from dying by simply entering an NHS hospital from neglect or infection than by any current weather.

Another thing is how many people , especially the elderly look at the UKMO web site and if they did all the warnings would more than likely cause more heart attacks and strokes than any winter weatherby scaring the bejesus out of vulnerable folk.

Lawrence13 wrote:

I'd be interested to see those statistics as stuff like that is ahrd to find.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/7360644@N07/5770383378/in/photostream

On Friday, 8 February 2013 05:32:52 UTC, Sleepalot wrote:
Lawrence13 wrote:



I'd be interested to see those statistics as stuff like that is ahrd to find.



http://www.flickr.com/photos/7360644@N07/5770383378/in/photostream

Thanks Sleepatlot, I have on many occassion spent hours trawling for stuff like that and never seem to find simple graphs, but apparently you put that one together? Funny thing is I can't believe that fatalities were lower in 1952 than the many of the years around it with 1951 more than 3 times higher. I say that as 1952 was the year of a terrible smog over London and possibly other areas of the country with over 4000 deaths attributable to the awful conditions, 1962 when there was another exceptional period of smog just before Christmas and the New Year and taht is possibly reflected in those figures in 63?

What were the causes of those winter deaths -surely not just hypothermia?

Are flu outbreaks included?

In article ,
Lawrence13 writes:
Thanks Sleepatlot,

My thanks too. It's very interesting.

I have on many occassion spent hours trawling for stuff like that
and never seem to find simple graphs, but apparently you put that
one together? Funny thing is I can't believe that fatalities were
lower in 1952 than the many of the years around

The 1952 smog was in December that year, so would fall in winter 1952-3.

it with 1951 more than 3 times higher. I say that as 1952 was the
year of a terrible smog over London and possibly other areas of
the country with over 4000 deaths attributable to the awful
conditions, 1962 when there was another exceptional period of
smog just before Christmas and the New Year and taht is possibly
reflected in those figures in 63?

Yep, and of course the 1962-3 figures will also include deaths from
hypothermia that winter.

I was wondering why the figure for 1950-1 was so high. December 1950 was
cold, IIRC, but hardly so severe as to account for so many excess
deaths. Perhaps there was a major flu epidemic that winter?

The overall trend of the chart is very encouraging, presumably
reflecting improved health care and better heating and insulation of our
homes.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

Lawrence13 wrote:

On Friday, 8 February 2013 05:32:52 UTC, Sleepalot wrote:
Lawrence13 wrote:



I'd be interested to see those statistics as stuff like that is ahrd to find.



http://www.flickr.com/photos/7360644@N07/5770383378/in/photostream

Thanks Sleepatlot, I have on many occassion spent hours trawling for stuff like that
and never seem to find simple graphs, but apparently you put that one together?

Yes, I somehow found the right place at the Off. of Nat. Sats., grabbed the data
and made the graph. (I can't find the data now.)

Funny thing is I can't believe that fatalities were lower in 1952 than the many
of the years around it with 1951 more than 3 times higher. I say that as 1952
was the year of a terrible smog over London and possibly other areas of the
country with over 4000 deaths attributable to the awful conditions, 1962 when
there was another exceptional period of smog just before Christmas and the
New Year and taht is possibly reflected in those figures in 63?

(Just speculating.) It's not just the severity of the winter, but the number of
vulnerable people around. If you have a series of mild winters, you accumulate
vulnerable people, and one harsh winter brings high mortality. The next winter
might be just as harsh but cause fewer deaths because there are fewer vulnerable
people.

What were the causes of those winter deaths -surely not just hypothermia?

Are flu outbreaks included?

As I understand it....

....it's from all causes. They just count the number of deaths each month, and
subtract typical spring/summer/autumn numbers from winter numbers to get
winter excess deaths.

Off. of Nat. Sats http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/index.html

Here's a breakdown of who died, and why, during the winter of 2010/2011
(provisional)
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-health2/excess-winter-mortality-in-england-and-wales/2011-12--provisional--and-2010-11--final-/ewm-reference-tables.xls

Here's the 1951 - 2010 excess winter mortality figures ...
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-health2/excess-winter-mortality-in-england-and-wales/2010-11--provisional--and-2009-10--final-/stb-ewm-2010-11.html

On Feb 5, 9:37*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Tuesday, 5 February 2013 20:54:25 UTC, Len Wood *wrote:
On Feb 5, 1:48*am, wrote:

On Monday, February 4, 2013 10:46:02 PM UTC, Adam Lea wrote:

On 04/02/13 19:58, Len Wood wrote:

On Feb 4, 6:13 pm, willie

wrote:

On Monday, February 4, 2013 1:45:17 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote:

God I've just been to Tesco's for some OXO cubes and they are completely out of stock !!!!

LOL,

Just seen a nice piece on 4th Feb 1963 on our local Spotlight BBC

news.

Impressive pics of cars buried with just aerials showing and steam

locos buried in drifts on Dartmoor.

Would this happen today? No chance.

Now that would presumably a red warning?

It was inconvenient then but everyone survived.

Bet many of the pensioners didn't.

According to the ONS, the excess winter mortality for the UK '62/63 was 89,600. That's nearly ninety thousand extra dead people caused by excessive cold. Mild, wet, 'tropical muck' winters? 'Bring It On!' is what I say.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I apoligise for my flippancy.

89,600 dead is definitely more than inconvenient..

There would have been far fewer dead if we had had the present UKMO

warning system in place don't you think Lawrence?

A red warning for snow would have halved the number dead.

You can reply to me Lawrence if you like.

;-)

Len

I'll reply to you Len. No the winter of 62/63 was objectivleyand exceptionally harsh . People died of bitter weather for all sorts of reasons, hypothermia, strokes, heart attacks and respiratory problemms caused by the smog in Nov/Dec and the buses stall ran take note folks.

As you say Len no amount of Red warnings would have changed that in 62/63.. *I'd be interested to see those statistics as stuff like that is ahrd to find.

However for anyone to suggest that the Red warnings system would prevent pensioner dying in a severe winter like 62/63 *is daft. People die due to lack of heating and neglect and no red warning system in that winter would have made anu difference whatsover.

But to even suggest that a cold spell now is every bit as severe as those far off days of 62/63 . before central heating, before double glazing and insulation, before warden flats and personal alarm systems is not talking sense.

The coloured warnings are used far too readily and I would suggest, no I would state that the elderly in the UK are infinitley more at risk from dying by simply entering an NHS *hospital from neglect or infection than by any current weather.

Another thing is how many people , especially the elderly look at the UKMO web site and if they did all the warnings would more than likely cause more heart attacks and strokes than any winter weatherby scaring the bejesus out of vulnerable folk.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well said, Lawrie, except where you unnecessarily slagged off
the NHS. People don't die because of a lack of snow warnings but
because very cold weather puts an extra strain on an already
physically vulnerable person. Sleepalot's graph shows that there is
always an excess of deaths in winter relative to the average (thanks,
BTW, sleepalot) and this is probably true of every country in the
world lying in a temperate zone.
The point of severe weather warnings is to tell you that travel
and possibly even going out at all may be hazardous even though the
number of lives saved is tiny. What you then do is up to you, if you
have any choice in the matter.
Severe weather warnings can be very useful for professionals
involved in transport or rescue. Those such as mountaineers who
deliberately challenge the elements mostly have enough savvy not to
fly too close to the sun, so to speak, but for the average person
these warnings seem to me to be a bit scarily pointless, leading to
excess risk aversion and unnecessary fear. I have known examples of
this latter effect.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.