On Thursday, 7 February 2013 19:32:07 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

Lawrence13 writes:

On Thursday, 7 February 2013 10:04:10 UTC, John Hall wrote:

In article ,



Eskimo Will writes:



I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential



day for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-



lying populated areas too.







A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are



keen on it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and



there will be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets



underway, winds will fall light as the trough stretches and precip.



will persist. The warmer air will occlude out and in the light winds



latent heat processes with melting snowflakes will hasten a



cooling process and the wet-bulb freezing level will come down



rapidly. This process most likely Sunday afternoon and evening.



Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature fall. So a period of



moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly petering out. One to



watch and one where tangerine warnings will be issued in due



course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait of



course.







Will







I'm starting to fantasise about a repeat of the Christmas snowstorm of



1927, where in SE England rain turned to snow around dusk on Christmas



Day which continued overnight and into Boxing Day, with the snow being



whipped into deep drifts by gale-force north-easterly winds. OK, very



unlikely to be repeated, but not beyond the bounds of possibility, the



way the models look this morning.



Blimey John . sounds like you were there when it happened.



You're the second person to say that.

--

John Hall



"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."

Oscar Wilde

Take no notice of Dave John, he's still getting over 1683/84;-). In fact he's so old , he remembers Richard III before he got he had is bad back!!!!!!!!!!!

On 07/02/13 08:49, Eskimo Will wrote:
I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential day
for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-lying
populated areas too.

A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are keen on
it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and there will
be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets underway, winds will
fall light as the trough stretches and precip. will persist. The warmer
air will occlude out and in the light winds latent heat processes with
melting snowflakes will hasten a cooling process and the wet-bulb
freezing level will come down rapidly. This process most likely Sunday
afternoon and evening. Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature
fall. So a period of moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly
petering out. One to watch and one where tangerine warnings will be
issued in due course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait
of course.

Will

Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey
hills?

On Thursday, 7 February 2013 20:09:00 UTC, Adam Lea wrote:
On 07/02/13 08:49, Eskimo Will wrote:

I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential day

for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-lying

populated areas too.



A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are keen on

it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and there will

be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets underway, winds will

fall light as the trough stretches and precip. will persist. The warmer

air will occlude out and in the light winds latent heat processes with

melting snowflakes will hasten a cooling process and the wet-bulb

freezing level will come down rapidly. This process most likely Sunday

afternoon and evening. Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature

fall. So a period of moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly

petering out. One to watch and one where tangerine warnings will be

issued in due course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait

of course.



Will



Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey

hills?

I'm not Will, but there could be a flurry in Surrey with the sleet on top.

Lawrence13 wrote:
On Thursday, 7 February 2013 19:32:07 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

Lawrence13 writes:

On Thursday, 7 February 2013 10:04:10 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Eskimo Will writes:
I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential
day for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-
lying populated areas too.
A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are
keen on it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and
there will be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets
underway, winds will fall light as the trough stretches and precip.
will persist. The warmer air will occlude out and in the light winds
latent heat processes with melting snowflakes will hasten a
cooling process and the wet-bulb freezing level will come down
rapidly. This process most likely Sunday afternoon and evening.
Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature fall. So a period of
moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly petering out. One to
watch and one where tangerine warnings will be issued in due
course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait of
course.
Will
I'm starting to fantasise about a repeat of the Christmas snowstorm of
1927, where in SE England rain turned to snow around dusk on Christmas
Day which continued overnight and into Boxing Day, with the snow being
whipped into deep drifts by gale-force north-easterly winds. OK, very
unlikely to be repeated, but not beyond the bounds of possibility, the
way the models look this morning.
Blimey John . sounds like you were there when it happened.


You're the second person to say that.

--

John Hall



"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."

Oscar Wilde

Take no notice of Dave John, he's still getting over 1683/84;-). In fact he's so old , he remembers Richard III before he got he had is bad back!!!!!!!!!!!
--------------------------------------------------
:-) and that was only because he slipped on the ice hence the quote "now
is the winter of our discontent". Bloody Yorkshire weather!

Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey

hills?

I'm not Will, but there could be a flurry in Surrey with the sleet on top.
----------------------
To tell the truth, I'm not sure any will be lying.

On Thursday, 7 February 2013 23:51:46 UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey



hills?



I'm not Will, but there could be a flurry in Surrey with the sleet on top.

----------------------

To tell the truth, I'm not sure any will be lying.


I'm not too sure Dave, I'm convinced some, especially where Will lives , will be sleet of Hand.

On Feb 7, 8:09*pm, Adam Lea wrote:
On 07/02/13 08:49, Eskimo Will wrote:





I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential day
for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-lying
populated areas too.

A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are keen on
it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and there will
be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets underway, winds will
fall light as the trough stretches and precip. will persist. The warmer
air will occlude out and in the light winds latent heat processes with
melting snowflakes will hasten a cooling process and the wet-bulb
freezing level will come down rapidly. This process most likely Sunday
afternoon and evening. Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature
fall. So a period of moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly
petering out. One to watch and one where tangerine warnings will be
issued in due course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait
of course.

Will

Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey
hills?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well, there was some tonight, about an inch, and it's still
there. But there was none in Croydon, at 150-180 ft AMSL, even though
it had snowed. This is not simply altitude but also London Heat-
Island effect and is a well-known local effect.
I think Sunday will be similar, and fortunately equally non-
disruptive.

Tudor Hughes, Hamsey Green, Warlingham, Surrey, 556 ft.

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 07/02/13 08:49, Eskimo Will wrote:
I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential day
for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-lying
populated areas too.

A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are keen on
it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and there will
be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets underway, winds will
fall light as the trough stretches and precip. will persist. The warmer
air will occlude out and in the light winds latent heat processes with
melting snowflakes will hasten a cooling process and the wet-bulb
freezing level will come down rapidly. This process most likely Sunday
afternoon and evening. Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature
fall. So a period of moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly
petering out. One to watch and one where tangerine warnings will be
issued in due course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait
of course.

Will

Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey
hills?


Possibly on Monday morning.

Will
--

On Feb 8, 8:52*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message

...





On 07/02/13 08:49, Eskimo Will wrote:
I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential day
for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-lying
populated areas too.

A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are keen on
it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and there will
be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets underway, winds will
fall light as the trough stretches and precip. will persist. The warmer
air will occlude out and in the light winds latent heat processes with
melting snowflakes will hasten a cooling process and the wet-bulb
freezing level will come down rapidly. This process most likely Sunday
afternoon and evening. Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature
fall. So a period of moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly
petering out. One to watch and one where tangerine warnings will be
issued in due course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait
of course.

Will

Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey
hills?

Possibly on Monday morning.

Will
--

Risk on Weather Online charts this morning restrict it to a temporary
covering, gone by Monday rush-hour. So from 18cm by Wednesday morning
to bugger all in 24hrs. Another damp squib - at least in low-lying
south-east?

"Scott W" wrote in message
...
On Feb 8, 8:52 am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message

...





On 07/02/13 08:49, Eskimo Will wrote:
I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential day
for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-lying
populated areas too.

A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are keen
on
it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and there will
be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets underway, winds will
fall light as the trough stretches and precip. will persist. The warmer
air will occlude out and in the light winds latent heat processes with
melting snowflakes will hasten a cooling process and the wet-bulb
freezing level will come down rapidly. This process most likely Sunday
afternoon and evening. Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature
fall. So a period of moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly
petering out. One to watch and one where tangerine warnings will be
issued in due course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait
of course.

Will

Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey
hills?

Possibly on Monday morning.

Will
--

Risk on Weather Online charts this morning restrict it to a temporary
covering, gone by Monday rush-hour. So from 18cm by Wednesday morning
to bugger all in 24hrs. Another damp squib - at least in low-lying
south-east?

===================

It's a tricky one. At present if you take the models at face value the
disruption is slower and consequently low centre is further north on Sunday
with colder air tucking further south on Monday. Warm air is forecast to be
present around the low with wet-bulb freezing levels circa 800-1000 metres
asl. That means rain at all levels in England apart from northern mountains
on Sunday this turning to snow during Monday as low sinks south but petering
out as it does so. I fully expect the warnings to be revised and more
focused towards the Midlands northwards, if the MetO accept the 00Z runs and
their internal 06Z run does similar. We love the rain in the south don't we!
:-) It can all change again, disruptions are tricky processes for models. I
did say "Who gets what and when will have to wait" and we may have to wait
till Saturday to be sure. MetO site specific run still brings snow into
Dartmoor Sunday evening with heavy snow at Haytor by midnight. About 3-6
hours slower than I suggested yesterday, happy with that!

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------