On Feb 8, 9:26*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Scott W" wrote in message

...
On Feb 8, 8:52 am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:





"Adam Lea" wrote in message

...

On 07/02/13 08:49, Eskimo Will wrote:
I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential day
for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-lying
populated areas too.

A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are keen
on
it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and there will
be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets underway, winds will
fall light as the trough stretches and precip. will persist. The warmer
air will occlude out and in the light winds latent heat processes with
melting snowflakes will hasten a cooling process and the wet-bulb
freezing level will come down rapidly. This process most likely Sunday
afternoon and evening. Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature
fall. So a period of moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly
petering out. One to watch and one where tangerine warnings will be
issued in due course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait
of course.

Will

Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey
hills?

Possibly on Monday morning.

Will
--

Risk on Weather Online charts this morning restrict it to a temporary
covering, gone by Monday rush-hour. So from 18cm by Wednesday morning
to bugger all in 24hrs. Another damp squib - at least in low-lying
south-east?

===================

It's a tricky one. At present if you take the models at face value the
disruption is slower and consequently low centre is further north on Sunday
with colder air tucking further south on Monday. Warm air is forecast to be
present around the low with wet-bulb freezing levels circa 800-1000 metres
asl. That means rain at all levels in England apart from northern mountains
on Sunday this turning to snow during Monday as low sinks south but petering
out as it does so. I fully expect the warnings to be revised and more
focused towards the Midlands northwards, if the MetO accept the 00Z runs and
their internal 06Z run does similar. We love the rain in the south don't we!
:-) It can all change again, disruptions are tricky processes for models. I
did say "Who gets what and when will have to wait" and we may have to wait
till Saturday to be sure. MetO site specific run still brings snow into
Dartmoor Sunday evening with heavy snow at Haytor by midnight. About 3-6
hours slower than I suggested yesterday, happy with that!

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

The only thing that can be predicted with some kind of certainty at
the moment is a blizzard of toys flying out of prams over on TWO
sometime in next 72 hours

On 08/02/2013 09:12, Scott W wrote:
On Feb 8, 8:52 am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message

...





On 07/02/13 08:49, Eskimo Will wrote:
I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential day
for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-lying
populated areas too.

A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are keen on
it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and there will
be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets underway, winds will
fall light as the trough stretches and precip. will persist. The warmer
air will occlude out and in the light winds latent heat processes with
melting snowflakes will hasten a cooling process and the wet-bulb
freezing level will come down rapidly. This process most likely Sunday
afternoon and evening. Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature
fall. So a period of moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly
petering out. One to watch and one where tangerine warnings will be
issued in due course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait
of course.

Will

Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey
hills?

Possibly on Monday morning.

Will
--

Risk on Weather Online charts this morning restrict it to a temporary
covering, gone by Monday rush-hour. So from 18cm by Wednesday morning
to bugger all in 24hrs. Another damp squib - at least in low-lying
south-east?


That will be just fine by me, Scott. A few hints of Spring here in the
last week or so, it can't be far away now.

--
George in Epping, west Essex, 350' asl
www.eppingweather.co.uk
www.winter1947.co.uk

On Feb 8, 9:45*am, George Booth wrote:
On 08/02/2013 09:12, Scott W wrote:





On Feb 8, 8:52 am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message

...

On 07/02/13 08:49, Eskimo Will wrote:
I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential day
for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-lying
populated areas too.

A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are keen on
it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and there will
be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets underway, winds will
fall light as the trough stretches and precip. will persist. The warmer
air will occlude out and in the light winds latent heat processes with
melting snowflakes will hasten a cooling process and the wet-bulb
freezing level will come down rapidly. This process most likely Sunday
afternoon and evening. Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature
fall. So a period of moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly
petering out. One to watch and one where tangerine warnings will be
issued in due course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait
of course.

Will

Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey
hills?

Possibly on Monday morning.

Will
--

Risk on Weather Online charts this morning restrict it to a temporary
covering, gone by Monday rush-hour. So from 18cm by Wednesday morning
to bugger all in 24hrs. Another damp squib - at least in low-lying
south-east?

That will be just fine by me, Scott. A few hints of Spring here in the
last week or so, it can't be far away now.

--
George in Epping, west Essex, 350' aslwww.eppingweather.co.ukwww.winter1947.co.uk

Yes, just had a tidy up in garden. Sun exposed bulbs are well on the
way. And it felt pleasant in the sunshine

In article
,
Scott W writes:
On Feb 8, 9:45*am, George Booth wrote:
A few hints of Spring here in the
last week or so, it can't be far away now.

--
George in Epping, west Essex, 350' aslwww.eppingweather.co.u
kwww.winter1947.co.uk

Yes, just had a tidy up in garden. Sun exposed bulbs are well on the
way. And it felt pleasant in the sunshine

I have a bucket outside that has been brimful of water for most of the
last few months. But, I suspect partly due to reduced humidity in recent
days causing increased evaporation, the level is now several inches
below the brim.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

On Friday, February 8, 2013 9:40:40 AM UTC, Scott W wrote:
On Feb 8, 9:26*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:

"Scott W" wrote in message



....

On Feb 8, 8:52 am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:











"Adam Lea" wrote in message



...



On 07/02/13 08:49, Eskimo Will wrote:

I shall be pin-pointing Sunday in my weekly forecast as a potential day

for disruptive snow. Not just on hills but eventually for low-lying

populated areas too.



A major trough disruption is about to take place, all models are keen

on

it. Initially the air will be too warm for lowland snow and there will

be quite a bit of rain. But as the disruption gets underway, winds will

fall light as the trough stretches and precip. will persist. The warmer

air will occlude out and in the light winds latent heat processes with

melting snowflakes will hasten a cooling process and the wet-bulb

freezing level will come down rapidly. This process most likely Sunday

afternoon and evening. Sunset also obviously aiding the temperature

fall. So a period of moderate or heavy snow in bands then slowly

petering out. One to watch and one where tangerine warnings will be

issued in due course by UKMO. Who gets what and when will have to wait

of course.



Will



Do you think there will be much chance of any lying snow in the Surrey

hills?



Possibly on Monday morning.



Will

--



Risk on Weather Online charts this morning restrict it to a temporary

covering, gone by Monday rush-hour. So from 18cm by Wednesday morning

to bugger all in 24hrs. Another damp squib - at least in low-lying

south-east?



===================



It's a tricky one. At present if you take the models at face value the

disruption is slower and consequently low centre is further north on Sunday

with colder air tucking further south on Monday. Warm air is forecast to be

present around the low with wet-bulb freezing levels circa 800-1000 metres

asl. That means rain at all levels in England apart from northern mountains

on Sunday this turning to snow during Monday as low sinks south but petering

out as it does so. I fully expect the warnings to be revised and more

focused towards the Midlands northwards, if the MetO accept the 00Z runs and

their internal 06Z run does similar. We love the rain in the south don't we!

:-) It can all change again, disruptions are tricky processes for models. I

did say "Who gets what and when will have to wait" and we may have to wait

till Saturday to be sure. MetO site specific run still brings snow into

Dartmoor Sunday evening with heavy snow at Haytor by midnight. About 3-6

hours slower than I suggested yesterday, happy with that!



Will

--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm

Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

---------------------------------------------



The only thing that can be predicted with some kind of certainty at

the moment is a blizzard of toys flying out of prams over on TWO

sometime in next 72 hours

*))

On 08/02/13 20:03, John Hall wrote:
In article
,
Scott writes:
On Feb 8, 9:45 am, George wrote:
A few hints of Spring here in the
last week or so, it can't be far away now.

--
George in Epping, west Essex, 350' aslwww.eppingweather.co.u
kwww.winter1947.co.uk

Yes, just had a tidy up in garden. Sun exposed bulbs are well on the
way. And it felt pleasant in the sunshine

I have a bucket outside that has been brimful of water for most of the
last few months. But, I suspect partly due to reduced humidity in recent
days causing increased evaporation, the level is now several inches
below the brim.

I'm hoping the sunshine and wind in the last few days will have helped
to dry the soil to the point where I can finish digging new beds on my
allotment.