Westcountry weatherman Bill Giles has waded into a row over claims that the country is experiencing a "new type of rain".

The veteran Met Office forecaster, who was born in Dittisham, near Dartmouth, has attacked Lord Chris Smith, the chairman of the Environment Agency, after he was reported to have blamed the growing threat of flooding on a new kind of precipitation, known as convective rain.

Read more in the link below.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/We...#axzz2KnKrzJji

On Thursday, 14 February 2013 12:10:38 UTC, Teignmouth wrote:
Westcountry weatherman Bill Giles has waded into a row over claims that the country is experiencing a "new type of rain".



The veteran Met Office forecaster, who was born in Dittisham, near Dartmouth, has attacked Lord Chris Smith, the chairman of the Environment Agency, after he was reported to have blamed the growing threat of flooding on a new kind of precipitation, known as convective rain.



Read more in the link below.



http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/We...#axzz2KnKrzJji

Presumably we could also soon be experiencing a new type of snow as well.

David Mitchell. Langtoft. East Riding.

On Feb 14, 12:10*pm, Teignmouth wrote:
Westcountry weatherman Bill Giles has waded into a row over claims that the country is experiencing a "new type of rain".

The veteran Met Office forecaster, who was born in Dittisham, near Dartmouth, has attacked Lord Chris Smith, the chairman of the Environment Agency, after he was reported to have blamed the growing threat of flooding on a new kind of precipitation, known as convective rain.

Read more in the link below.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/We...orecaster-Gile...

Is Chris Smith just saying that there is far more convective rain in
winter than previously? Or is he trying to divert blame away from
planners who have built estates on flood plains, despite being advised
otherwise?

On 14/02/2013 12:40, Scott W wrote:
On Feb 14, 12:10 pm, Teignmouth wrote:
Westcountry weatherman Bill Giles has waded into a row over claims that the country is experiencing a "new type of rain".

The veteran Met Office forecaster, who was born in Dittisham, near Dartmouth, has attacked Lord Chris Smith, the chairman of the Environment Agency, after he was reported to have blamed the growing threat of flooding on a new kind of precipitation, known as convective rain.

Read more in the link below.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/We...orecaster-Gile...

Is Chris Smith just saying that there is far more convective rain in
winter than previously? Or is he trying to divert blame away from
planners who have built estates on flood plains, despite being advised
otherwise?

This is what the Telegraph reported him as saying:


"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9844123/We-must-be-prepared-for-the-flooding-caused-by-a-new-kind-of-rain-says-Lord-Smith.html"

Like Bill Giles, Philip Eden was critical in his Sunday Telegraph
column on Feb 10. In today's column he writes that "The Environment
Agency last week was at pains to point out what Lord Smith, their
chairman, had really meant: 'Lord Smith has consistently said that
we are seeing increasing instances of convective rain.' That, of course
is not what he actually said."

Earlier in today's column Eden writes, "There is no evidence that any of
the three types of rain I described here last week - frontal, orographic
and convective rain - are becoming more frequent." He says that the last
major example of convective rain was the Boscastle storm in August 2004.


--

Brian W Lawrence
Wantage
Oxfordshire

"Brian Lawrence" wrote in message
...

This is what the Telegraph reported him as saying:
"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9844123/We-must-be-prepared-for-the-flooding-caused-by-a-new-kind-of-rain-says-Lord-Smith.html"

Like Bill Giles, Philip Eden was critical in his Sunday Telegraph
column on Feb 10. In today's column he writes that "The Environment
Agency last week was at pains to point out what Lord Smith, their
chairman, had really meant: 'Lord Smith has consistently said that
we are seeing increasing instances of convective rain.' That, of course is
not what he actually said."

No, what he said was:
"We are experiencing a new kind of rain. Instead of rain sweeping in a
curtain across the country, we are getting (convective) rain, which sits in
one place and just dumps itself in a deluge over a long period of time."

Earlier in today's column Eden writes, "There is no evidence that any of
the three types of rain I described here last week - frontal, orographic
and convective rain - are becoming more frequent."

If none of the three types are increasing how was it that last summer was
the wettest ever recorded? One of those types of rain must have increased.
Is Eden saying it was caused by a new type :-?

Cheers, Alastair.

On 17/02/2013 17:08, Alastair McDonald wrote:
If none of the three types are increasing how was it that last summer was
the wettest ever recorded?

.... not so: in the EWP series it was the 4th wettest (behind 1829, 1879
and 1912): in the Scottish series it was 3rd wettest (behind 1985 &
1948): in the Northern Ireland series it was the 3rd wettest (behind
1958 & 1956). [Series lengths vary / all data from Met Office - Hadley
series web pages]

Martin.


--
West Moors / East Dorset
Lat: 50deg 49.25'N, Long: 01deg 53.05'W
Height (amsl): 17 m (56 feet)
COL category: C1 overall

In article ,
Alastair McDonald writes:
"Brian Lawrence" wrote in message
...

Earlier in today's column Eden writes, "There is no evidence that any of
the three types of rain I described here last week - frontal, orographic
and convective rain - are becoming more frequent."

If none of the three types are increasing how was it that last summer was
the wettest ever recorded? One of those types of rain must have increased.
Is Eden saying it was caused by a new type :-?

I suppose we could have more rain if one or more of these types of rain
became on average heavier when they occurred even if no more frequent.
But I don't suppose that was what Philip Eden meant. I suspect that he
would argue that 2012 was just an unusually wet year, and that as yet
there is no sign of a long-term trend to greater rainfall.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
On 17/02/2013 17:08, Alastair McDonald wrote:
If none of the three types are increasing how was it that last summer was
the wettest ever recorded?

... not so: in the EWP series it was the 4th wettest (behind 1829, 1879
and 1912): in the Scottish series it was 3rd wettest (behind 1985 & 1948):
in the Northern Ireland series it was the 3rd wettest (behind 1958 &
1956). [Series lengths vary / all data from Met Office - Hadley series web
pages]

The Telegraph, the paper for which Philip Eden writes, reported that 2012
was the wettest year on record for England.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/we...d-to-come.html
Since here in England the winter was creating drought conditions, one can
deduce that during the rest of the year must have been very wet indeed. As
you point out, the actual summer months were not particulary wet, so we
must look elsewhere for the record. It was, in fact, the spring months
April, May & Jun which produced enough rain to not only compensate for the
dry Jan, Feb, Mar but also help produce the Telegraph's record.

The Telegraph states that the rainfall was "the highest since records began
in 1910" which is over 100 years ago. If we take your suggestion made in
your letter to Weather that the period for calculating climate should be 100
years, then it can be seen that last year's precipitation was an outlier
from the current climate.

However, the EWP record goes back to 1766, and the amount recorded for these
three months (AMJ) in 2012 is 364 mm is an EWP record. In fact only 1843
with
305 mm, 1797 with 313 mm and 1782 with 337 mm exceeding 300 mm.
So 2012 was nearly 10% greater than the previous record.

Over the last 100 years, the previous record was only 284 mm recorded in
2000.
So with the two largest amounts only twelve years apart it could be that
2012
was a harbinger of things to come - very wet springs.

Cheers, Alastair.

"John Hall" wrote in message
...

I suppose we could have more rain if one or more of these types of rain
became on average heavier when they occurred even if no more frequent.
But I don't suppose that was what Philip Eden meant. I suspect that he
would argue that 2012 was just an unusually wet year, and that as yet
there is no sign of a long-term trend to greater rainfall.

That is what I think Philip Eden meant, i.e. that there is as yet no sign of
the effects of global warming. But is that correct?

My impression is that in the past, floods mainly happened in the winter
when there was less evaporation and when there were snow melts.
Now the flooding is happening at other times as a result of heavier
rainfall episodes. This heavier rain is most likely due to greater specific
humidity caused by higher global temperatures.

As I see it, these episodes were what Lord Smith was referring to when
he spoke of a new type of rain. He meant that these heavier rain
episodes are new to Britain.

It could be argued that it IS a new type of rain to Britain - monsoon rain.
The water vapour is not produced by local convection. It is the result of
advection from a warmer ocean. In England last year (Jan - Dec) was the
wettest in the last 100 years with a total precipitation of 1244 mm. The
next highest was 1233 mm in 2000, fairly recent and so consistent with
global warming beginning to show its ugly face.

The problem is that when the signal of global warming is hidden in the
noise of weather. When the signal has become so great that Philip and
people like him can no longer deny that these extreme
events are inded caused by global warming, it will already be
too late to take action to prevent the worst consequences. It might
be thought that we could stop then, but that is untrue because we
will already be "committed" to even more warming as the world
adjusts to the new levels of CO2.

When the Arctic sea ice melts will will not be able to bring it
back by reducing the amount of CO2 in the atmophere. The ice
is self sustaning keeping itself cool by relecting the sunlight away.
We would have to lower the CO2 to Ice Age levels to get the sea
ice to return.

It is already too late to save the Greenland and West Antarctic ice
sheets. They have begun to melt and as their altitudes decrease their
surfaces will be in lower and warmer air, which will act as a positive
feedback causing more melting. That means a sea level rise of over
10 m, ~30 feet. The Thames barrage won't protect London from
storms after that has ocurred.

But better men than me have tried to make the world see sense,
so what hope is there for me :-(
http://www.ted.com/talks/james_hanse..._ch ange.html

Cheers, Alastair.

.... my only point in my original post was to correct the statement ....
"... that last summer was the wettest ever recorded? ".

It wasn't as I hope I've demonstrated. If we can't get it right on a
(supposedly) scientific newsgroup then we can't expect the press to do so.

Martin.

[ PS ... the mention of my letter to 'Weather' was, of course, a
red-herring: the letter concerns use of rolling / overlapping 30 yr
means to assess deviations from 'the normal', not arguing for an
artificial truncation of a data set.]





--
West Moors / East Dorset
Lat: 50deg 49.25'N, Long: 01deg 53.05'W
Height (amsl): 17 m (56 feet)
COL category: C1 overall