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Old February 26th 13, 04:59 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (26/02/13)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Saturday.
Issued 0458, 26/02/13

High pressure will affect most areas over the weekend, bringing light winds
and night frosts. Into next week it looks as though rain will eventually
move up from the south as low pressure deepens to the SW.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
A ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland leads to light winds there, with
NE'lies elsewhere. Tomorrow high pressure builds over the UK, followed by
northerlies and NE'lies on Thursday as the high declines to the west. Friday
sees more of the same.

T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a ridge over the UK with a westerly flow to the
north and an ESE'ly flow to the west. At the 500hPa level there's a high,
whereas the other models all have the upper high to the west with
northerlies or NW'lies aloft.
At the surface the models all show a ridge over Scotland, Northern Ireland
and northern England. Elsewhere winds are NE'lies or NNE'lies.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows high pressure on day 6 moving SE'wards on day 7, leading to a
mixture of southerlies and SE'lies by then. GFS has a col on day 6 with
easterlies picking up on day 7 as pressure falls to the south.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 with ECM show a col giving way to easterlies as pressure falls
to the SW. GFS has easterlies on days 8 to 10 with a trough to the south.

Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres
The GEFS shows temperatures reaching average levels on the 4th, then rising
to above-average from the 5th.

ECM ensembles
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/service...-forecast.html
ECM also shows milder-than-average temperatures from the 5th, albeit with a
good deal of scatter.



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