At last, enough agreement and consistency to forecast a change in pattern with 80% confidence: "At T240, on 9th March, the present block will have been shifted E/SE from the UK allowing Atlantic fronts to make slow, but steady progress across the UK. A period of southerly winds will have preceded a change to an Atlantic regime. The jetstream may well be showing signs of moving further North, heralding warmer, mT air".

I can't forecast "real spring" until that jetstream shifts northwards, as I've said. There are indications that this may begin to happen around, or soon after, 9th March, but that's not 80% certain, by any means.

The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day outlook and in the 16-30 outlook, colder conditions persist.

On Wednesday, 27 February 2013 20:18:52 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
At last, enough agreement and consistency to forecast a change in pattern with 80% confidence: "At T240, on 9th March, the present block will have been shifted E/SE from the UK allowing Atlantic fronts to make slow, but steady progress across the UK. A period of southerly winds will have preceded a change to an Atlantic regime. The jetstream may well be showing signs of moving further North, heralding warmer, mT air".



I can't forecast "real spring" until that jetstream shifts northwards, as I've said. There are indications that this may begin to happen around, or soon after, 9th March, but that's not 80% certain, by any means.



The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day outlook and in the 16-30 outlook, colder conditions persist.

Bit late mate. Piers has already forecast that.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
At last, enough agreement and consistency to forecast a change in pattern
with 80% confidence: "At T240, on 9th March, the present block will have
been shifted E/SE from the UK allowing Atlantic fronts to make slow, but
steady progress across the UK. A period of southerly winds will have
preceded a change to an Atlantic regime.
The jetstream may well be showing signs of moving further North, heralding
warmer, mT air".
===================================

Not on 12Z GFS it is not. Nor more so on 12Z ECM when you look at where the
main 500 hPa flow is. I'm wondering if Dawlish actually knows how to look
for the jet? Look at GFS 200 hPa flow at T+240 around 9th March and you will
see the jet is solidly around 39N just before and after. What were you
looking at Paul, surely you weren't considering the speed up of winds around
the ridge at 300 hpa a northward movement of the main jet because it clearly
isn't when you look at 200 hPa in conjunction? The charts are consistent
with a low latitude jet and show a potentially slow moving cyclonic regime
with a lot of wet weather. GFS even has sub-528 DAM in the west and north on
the 9th as well!

====================================
I can't forecast "real spring" until that jetstream shifts northwards, as
I've said. There are indications that this may begin to happen around,
or soon after, 9th March, but that's not 80% certain, by any means.
====================================

Looks solidly south to me. So you are wise not to forecast anything like
Spring.



The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day
outlook and in the 16-30 outlook, colder conditions persist.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day
outlook ...


Not so.
" UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 13 Mar 2013:

Next week is likely to start generally dry with variable amounts of cloud
but probably the best of the sunshine across southern and western areas.
However, even northern and eastern places should see increasing amounts of
sunshine by mid-week. Through the remainder of the week it will probably
turn more unsettled in the southwest with rain at times. Other areas may
hold on to these drier conditions for longer, but bands of rain are likely
to increasingly advance further north and east, giving a low risk of snow in
northern areas. Winds generally light at first, but southeasterly winds are
likely to strengthen in southern areas. Generally rather cold with further
overnight frosts for many, especially at first, but temperatures probably
recovering to nearer normal in the south with time. "

"turn more unsettled in the SW ..... bands of rain .... " looks like a
change to me.
Did you read this forecast before posting I wonder?

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Wednesday, February 27, 2013 9:14:32 PM UTC, wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day

outlook ...





Not so.

" UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 13 Mar 2013:



Next week is likely to start generally dry with variable amounts of cloud

but probably the best of the sunshine across southern and western areas.

However, even northern and eastern places should see increasing amounts of

sunshine by mid-week. Through the remainder of the week it will probably

turn more unsettled in the southwest with rain at times. Other areas may

hold on to these drier conditions for longer, but bands of rain are likely

to increasingly advance further north and east, giving a low risk of snow in

northern areas. Winds generally light at first, but southeasterly winds are

likely to strengthen in southern areas. Generally rather cold with further

overnight frosts for many, especially at first, but temperatures probably

recovering to nearer normal in the south with time. "



"turn more unsettled in the SW ..... bands of rain .... " looks like a

change to me.

Did you read this forecast before posting I wonder?



Will

--

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

---------------------------------------------

You appear to have missed the phrase "in the SW". Does the SW now represent the whole of the UK?

I interpret that "forecast" as no return to Atlantic conditions for almost all the UK. It clearly shows that towards the end of the forecast - where it is probably talking about conditions from 10 days onwards: "Winds generally light at first, but southeasterly winds are likely to strengthen in southern areas. (South-easterly winds *still* out to 16 days is now an indication of Atlantic weather at 10). Generally rather cold with further overnight frosts for many, especially at first, but temperatures probably recovering to nearer normal in the south with time. implying the cold will continue to 16 days, which means it will certainly be colder at 10 days)".

But as usual, this ****-poor precis is as clear as mud with both its wording and its timings. The MetO teaboy did his usual job of brilliant obfuscation.

Have you lost your ability to interpret the tea-boy's scribbles since leaving your former employers, I wonder?

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Wednesday, February 27, 2013 9:14:32 PM UTC,
wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day

outlook ...





Not so.

" UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 13 Mar 2013:



Next week is likely to start generally dry with variable amounts of cloud

but probably the best of the sunshine across southern and western areas.

However, even northern and eastern places should see increasing amounts of

sunshine by mid-week. Through the remainder of the week it will probably

turn more unsettled in the southwest with rain at times. Other areas may

hold on to these drier conditions for longer, but bands of rain are likely

to increasingly advance further north and east, giving a low risk of snow
in

northern areas. Winds generally light at first, but southeasterly winds
are

likely to strengthen in southern areas. Generally rather cold with further

overnight frosts for many, especially at first, but temperatures probably

recovering to nearer normal in the south with time. "



"turn more unsettled in the SW ..... bands of rain .... " looks like a

change to me.

Did you read this forecast before posting I wonder?



Will

--

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

---------------------------------------------

You appear to have missed the phrase "in the SW". Does the SW now represent
the whole of the UK?
========================

Not so. Can you not read " but bands of rain are likely to increasingly
advance further north and east ... "

========================
But as usual, this ****-poor precis is as clear as mud with both its wording
and its timings. The MetO teaboy did his usual job of brilliant obfuscation.
========================

Oh dear, showing your true colours again are we Dawlish?
You had a go at me in another thread for knocking the MetO and calling me a
dinosaur but here you hypocritically go again. You can't help it can you,
it's so sad.

========================
Have you lost your ability to interpret the tea-boy's scribbles since
leaving your former employers, I wonder?
========================

At least I can read charts and graphs and do know where the jet stream is,
found it yet?
Or do you need some more instruction from your teacher?

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Thursday, February 28, 2013 8:06:11 AM UTC, wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

On Wednesday, February 27, 2013 9:14:32 PM UTC,

wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message



...



The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day



outlook ...











Not so.



" UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 13 Mar 2013:







Next week is likely to start generally dry with variable amounts of cloud



but probably the best of the sunshine across southern and western areas..



However, even northern and eastern places should see increasing amounts of



sunshine by mid-week. Through the remainder of the week it will probably



turn more unsettled in the southwest with rain at times. Other areas may



hold on to these drier conditions for longer, but bands of rain are likely



to increasingly advance further north and east, giving a low risk of snow

in



northern areas. Winds generally light at first, but southeasterly winds

are



likely to strengthen in southern areas. Generally rather cold with further



overnight frosts for many, especially at first, but temperatures probably



recovering to nearer normal in the south with time. "







"turn more unsettled in the SW ..... bands of rain .... " looks like a



change to me.



Did you read this forecast before posting I wonder?







Will



--



http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm



Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)



---------------------------------------------



You appear to have missed the phrase "in the SW". Does the SW now represent

the whole of the UK?

========================



Not so. Can you not read " but bands of rain are likely to increasingly

advance further north and east ... "



========================

But as usual, this ****-poor precis is as clear as mud with both its wording

and its timings. The MetO teaboy did his usual job of brilliant obfuscation.

========================



Oh dear, showing your true colours again are we Dawlish?

You had a go at me in another thread for knocking the MetO and calling me a

dinosaur but here you hypocritically go again. You can't help it can you,

it's so sad.



========================

Have you lost your ability to interpret the tea-boy's scribbles since

leaving your former employers, I wonder?

========================



At least I can read charts and graphs and do know where the jet stream is,

found it yet?

Or do you need some more instruction from your teacher?



Will

--

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

---------------------------------------------

I don't want to get between you two but I, also, find your forecasts a bit obscure. Where are "northern and eastern places" for example? Is northern Durness to John O' Groats and Eastern Wick to Dover? Not much point of any forecast if you don't know where it's for.

On Thursday, 28 February 2013 08:06:11 UTC, wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

On Wednesday, February 27, 2013 9:14:32 PM UTC,

wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message



...



The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day



outlook ...











Not so.



" UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 13 Mar 2013:







Next week is likely to start generally dry with variable amounts of cloud



but probably the best of the sunshine across southern and western areas..



However, even northern and eastern places should see increasing amounts of



sunshine by mid-week. Through the remainder of the week it will probably



turn more unsettled in the southwest with rain at times. Other areas may



hold on to these drier conditions for longer, but bands of rain are likely



to increasingly advance further north and east, giving a low risk of snow

in



northern areas. Winds generally light at first, but southeasterly winds

are



likely to strengthen in southern areas. Generally rather cold with further



overnight frosts for many, especially at first, but temperatures probably



recovering to nearer normal in the south with time. "







"turn more unsettled in the SW ..... bands of rain .... " looks like a



change to me.



Did you read this forecast before posting I wonder?







Will



--



http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm



Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)



---------------------------------------------



You appear to have missed the phrase "in the SW". Does the SW now represent

the whole of the UK?

========================



Not so. Can you not read " but bands of rain are likely to increasingly

advance further north and east ... "



========================

But as usual, this ****-poor precis is as clear as mud with both its wording

and its timings. The MetO teaboy did his usual job of brilliant obfuscation.

========================



Oh dear, showing your true colours again are we Dawlish?

You had a go at me in another thread for knocking the MetO and calling me a

dinosaur but here you hypocritically go again. You can't help it can you,

it's so sad.



========================

Have you lost your ability to interpret the tea-boy's scribbles since

leaving your former employers, I wonder?

========================



At least I can read charts and graphs and do know where the jet stream is,

found it yet?

Or do you need some more instruction from your teacher?



Will

--

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

---------------------------------------------

Will. I know I get up peoples noses with my stupid ramblings but I feel that I never try to get personal with any indivual and try to create some levity into the proceeding but Paul? Paul why do you get so bitter and personal all the bloody time, what's wrong with you man?

On Thursday, February 28, 2013 3:55:54 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Thursday, 28 February 2013 08:06:11 UTC, wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message



...



On Wednesday, February 27, 2013 9:14:32 PM UTC,



wrote:



"Dawlish" wrote in message







...







The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day







outlook ...























Not so.







" UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 13 Mar 2013:















Next week is likely to start generally dry with variable amounts of cloud







but probably the best of the sunshine across southern and western areas.







However, even northern and eastern places should see increasing amounts of







sunshine by mid-week. Through the remainder of the week it will probably







turn more unsettled in the southwest with rain at times. Other areas may







hold on to these drier conditions for longer, but bands of rain are likely







to increasingly advance further north and east, giving a low risk of snow



in







northern areas. Winds generally light at first, but southeasterly winds



are







likely to strengthen in southern areas. Generally rather cold with further







overnight frosts for many, especially at first, but temperatures probably







recovering to nearer normal in the south with time. "















"turn more unsettled in the SW ..... bands of rain .... " looks like a







change to me.







Did you read this forecast before posting I wonder?















Will







--







http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm







Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)







---------------------------------------------







You appear to have missed the phrase "in the SW". Does the SW now represent



the whole of the UK?



========================







Not so. Can you not read " but bands of rain are likely to increasingly



advance further north and east ... "







========================



But as usual, this ****-poor precis is as clear as mud with both its wording



and its timings. The MetO teaboy did his usual job of brilliant obfuscation.



========================







Oh dear, showing your true colours again are we Dawlish?



You had a go at me in another thread for knocking the MetO and calling me a



dinosaur but here you hypocritically go again. You can't help it can you,



it's so sad.







========================



Have you lost your ability to interpret the tea-boy's scribbles since



leaving your former employers, I wonder?



========================







At least I can read charts and graphs and do know where the jet stream is,



found it yet?



Or do you need some more instruction from your teacher?







Will



--



http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm



Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)



---------------------------------------------



Will. I know I get up peoples noses with my stupid ramblings but I feel that I never try to get personal with any indivual and try to create some levity into the proceeding but Paul? Paul why do you get so bitter and personal all the bloody time, what's wrong with you man?

Pauls one of the better ones on here - at least he doesnt sit on the fence. People have a problem with Paul when they know hes right and theyre wrong. Hes a lot more preferable to some of the pompous arses on here, not that Im one to JUDGE

On Thursday, February 28, 2013 8:06:11 AM UTC, wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

On Wednesday, February 27, 2013 9:14:32 PM UTC,

wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message



...



The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day



outlook ...











Not so.



" UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 13 Mar 2013:







Next week is likely to start generally dry with variable amounts of cloud



but probably the best of the sunshine across southern and western areas..



However, even northern and eastern places should see increasing amounts of



sunshine by mid-week. Through the remainder of the week it will probably



turn more unsettled in the southwest with rain at times. Other areas may



hold on to these drier conditions for longer, but bands of rain are likely



to increasingly advance further north and east, giving a low risk of snow

in



northern areas. Winds generally light at first, but southeasterly winds

are



likely to strengthen in southern areas. Generally rather cold with further



overnight frosts for many, especially at first, but temperatures probably



recovering to nearer normal in the south with time. "







"turn more unsettled in the SW ..... bands of rain .... " looks like a



change to me.



Did you read this forecast before posting I wonder?







Will



--



http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm



Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)



---------------------------------------------



You appear to have missed the phrase "in the SW". Does the SW now represent

the whole of the UK?

========================



Not so. Can you not read " but bands of rain are likely to increasingly

advance further north and east ... "



========================

But as usual, this ****-poor precis is as clear as mud with both its wording

and its timings. The MetO teaboy did his usual job of brilliant obfuscation.

========================



Oh dear, showing your true colours again are we Dawlish?

You had a go at me in another thread for knocking the MetO and calling me a

dinosaur but here you hypocritically go again. You can't help it can you,

it's so sad.



========================

Have you lost your ability to interpret the tea-boy's scribbles since

leaving your former employers, I wonder?

========================



At least I can read charts and graphs and do know where the jet stream is,

found it yet?

Or do you need some more instruction from your teacher?



Will

--

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

---------------------------------------------

Awwww you are all upset.

Any more snide comments about your previous employers to impart? It really is sad when someone retires in such a state of sourness. Remember. all I did was to make a forecast. I din't ask you for your comments, but you've decided to chirp - which is the prerogative of anyone. Also remember that I thanked you for your comments on the SSWs and I did learn. Merci. I am not as well versed in all aspects of the subject..........but neither are you.

BTW have you managed to read the published research on SSWs which says nothing like what you've said about their probable effects on blocking in the northern hemisphere and especially over the UK? I also loved your recent comment; "no-one really knows how blocks form", well they don't, unless it is you talking about SSW's and their likely effect on the UK weather. *))

Do watch your blood pressure, now you are retired.