Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Thursday.
Issued 0458, 04/03/13

The week will end with low pressure approaching from the SW. Rain will
spread NE'wards across much of England and Wales, perhaps extending further
north, with a brisk easterly or ENE'ly setting in over Scotland and Northern
Ireland.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
A high lies to the east, resulting in a mixture of southerlies and ESE'lies
over the UK. Tomorrow there are SSE'leis and SE'lies, followed by ESE'lies
on Wednesday as pressure falls to the SW. Thursday sees further ESE'lies.

T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a ridge over the UK, much as it's done for several
days now. At the 500hPa level there are SW'lies with an upper low to the
WSW. The other runs, except GEM, are broadly similar. GEM has an upper low
to the NW instead of the WSW or SW.
At the surface GFS has a low over England and Wales with easterlies to the
north. MetO has a trough over the Scottish border with easterlies to the
north and southerlies to the south. ECM is similar to MetO, although the
easterly/southerly divide is over the Midlands. GEM has ESE'lies for most
with a trough over southernmost areas of England and JMA is closer to ECM
with a trough over the Midlands.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows ESE'lies on days 6 and 7 with low pressure approaching from the
SW. GFS has low pressure moving eastwards over England and Wales with
ENE'lies further north.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 with ECM show easterlies backing NNE'ly as low pressure moves
away ESE'wards. A ridge from the north covers the UK on days 8 and 9,
followed by a col on day 10.

Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres
The GEFS shows a mild spell from tomorrow for 6 days, followed by colder
conditions.

ECM ensembles
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/service...-forecast.html
ECM shows a mild week from the 5th, then as per the GEFS colder temperatures
arrive.