Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Monday. Issued
0601z, 25/09/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
Low pressure lies to the east of Iceland, leading to moderate westerlies
over the UK. The low moves away to the NE at T+144, but a secondary low
forms over the western English Channel. Winds are northerlies over Northern
Ireland and Scotland, with NE'lies for Wales and variable winds over much of
England. A ridge topples over the UK at T+168, bringing westerlies to
Scotland and Northern Ireland, with ENE'lies or NE'lies elsewhere.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The UK lies under westerlies, due to low pressure to the east of Iceland.
The low then moves quickly southwards so that by T+144 it lies over SW
England. This brings easterlies and SE'lies over the UK.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
Westerlies cover the UK, due to low pressure to the SE of Iceland and a
ridge over France. The low sinks SE'wards slowly at T+120, bringing a
continuation of westerlies for the UK. 850hPa temperatures range from +1C
over northern Scotland to +4C over SE England. By T+144 the low deepens over
the Irish Sea, resulting in easterlies and SE'lies for Scotland, with
southerlies and westerlies for England. The low continues to deepen at
T+168, this time over SE Scotland. Strong NE'lies cover much of Scotland as
a result, with northerlies for Northern Ireland. England and Wales lie under
more variable winds, due to a secondary centre to the SW of England. By day
8 the main centre lies over the western English Channel, with easterlies and
NE'lies for the UK. The low then moves NE'wards to the SW of Norway on day
9, while continuing to deepen. Northerlies and NW'lies cover the UK as a
result. The low merges with a low near Iceland on day 10, with moderate
NW'lies and westerlies for the UK.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
As with the other runs, westerlies cover the UK, this time with a low
located to the ENE of Iceland. The low fills and drifts eastwards at T+120,
with WSW'lies for the UK. 850hPa temperatures range from +1C over NW
Scotland to +4C over SW England. By T+144, the low deepens over Wales and SW
England, with SSW'lies for Northern Ireland and western Scotland. The rest
of the UK lies under northerlies.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run also shows westerlies for the British Isles, with 850hPa
temperatures ranging from freezing over the Western Isles to +3C over
southern England. Low pressure sinks southwards over the UK at T+144, with
cyclonic winds for most. By T+168 the low deepens over Biscay, with a trough
over England and Wales bringing easterlies and NE'lies there. Northern
Ireland also lies under NE'lies, with northerlies for Scotland.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The T+108 chart shows good agreement of low pressure near Iceland and high
pressure to the east of Newfoundland.

In summary, today's runs all show westerlies for Monday, followed by low
pressure moving across the UK from the north over the next two or three
days.