On Saturday, March 16, 2013 10:30:00 AM UTC, Col wrote:
Dawlish wrote:

On Saturday, March 16, 2013 8:52:49 AM UTC, Col wrote:



Oh for heaven's sake, enough is enough!







Meteorologically interesting of course but that would be



late March, it's been cold for so long, where's spring??



Not there at all Col. There's been nothing to suggest it and all we

can be hopeful for is a nicer day, or two this week.



Will is ramping, as he always does, the possibility of the most

extreme snow conditions he can. We've had so many posts this and in

other winters from him about Dartmoor (and other) blizzards, that I

think we all know it's silly, but he'll get it right once - the law

of averages will kick in.



There's a lot of talk on TWO about snow and cold, and it can't all be

'ramping'. Besides Will only ever mentioned the 'possibility' of blizzards,

it wasn't a forecast as such.



Hoping for not too bad a day here near the centre of the low where

conditions can sometimes be reasonable. However rain only just

cleared but starting to brighten up a touch. Temp a chilly 3.2°C.

--

Col



Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Ha! It's *never* a forecast Col, even when he puts it in the title to ramp the possibility. It only *becomes* a forecast in hindsight, if blizzards actually happen - and one time, I promise you they will! Now you know that! *))

Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, March 16, 2013 10:30:00 AM UTC, Col wrote:
Dawlish wrote:

Ha! It's *never* a forecast Col, even when he puts it in the title to
ramp the possibility. It only *becomes* a forecast in hindsight, if
blizzards actually happen - and one time, I promise you they will!
Now you know that! *))

Some sun coming through here now, temp up to 4.9°C. Looks
like I could get my reasonable day after all.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Howard Neil wrote:
On 16/03/2013 08:25, Eskimo Will wrote:
ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next
weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air
at 850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles
quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground
coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern
England, Scotland?
Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North
Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be
really struggling in a week or two :-(

Will

Yes, it does look bad for the farmers. The arable farmers need warmer
temperatures while the livestock farmers need less precipitation. Both
look like losing out.:-(

----------------------------------------------
Yes despite a relatively dry year so far here (95mm) the ground is still
saturated.
Dave, S.Essex

Joe, I seem to remember reading in Philip Eden's 1994 Weatherwise (it's a shame he doesn't post here anymore), the reason why the Jet Stream typicaly meanders in early spring is because the contrast in temperature between the Atlantic & Continental Europe is at its minimum.

Once Continental Europe starts to warm up later in spring, the Atlantic is still relatively cool & takes longer to warm up, this creates a bigger temperature contrast heralding the return of the Westerlies.

On 16/03/13 08:37, Eskimo Will wrote:

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 16/03/13 08:25, Eskimo Will wrote:
ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next
weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air
at 850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles
quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground
coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern
England, Scotland?
Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North
Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be
really struggling in a week or two :-(

Will

I guess this wasn't a good time to take on an allotment then?

Adam you may wish to consider fleecing it or using glass to warm up the
soil. Soil temperatures are very low at present. Mine are still just
3-4C at 30cm and lower at times near the surface. Not even the grass is
growing yet. Haven't sown a single seed so far (normally at least have
my parsnips in by now which will germinate at 5C). Will put some veg
seeds in a cloche next week and pray. Outside sowing will not start
until mid-April or even May at this rate and could be another very bad
year if we get a cloudy cool and wet summer again. YMMV of course! I'm
also investing in a big greenhouse which I reckon will bear fruit
(literally!) in the next few years.

Will

Yes I am considering putting fleece down. I have a couple of free days
just before the Easter weekend when I was hoping to get the potatoes in
and some seeds sown, no chance if this weather keeps up.

Weather is awful in Horsham this morning. I am involved in a community
allotment project and this morning was supposed to be when we were
promoting it via a stall in the town centre. Needless to say it has been
called off due to the weather conditions, not just the rain but the wind
as well which would have made trying to erect a gazebo challenging to
say the least.

On Mar 16, 10:23*am, Howard Neil wrote:

Yes, it does look bad for the farmers. The arable farmers need warmer
temperatures while the livestock farmers need less precipitation. Both
look like losing out.

Not necessarily.
Cool weather in witer turns stored fat to healthy animals and they do
well thereafter in a reasonable spring and summer.
Wet weather in winter shouldn't hurt anyone too much as most cattle
remain indoors till May. Shepherds will be out with their flocks most
nights around this time of year until late in April. Any sheep too wet
to rise should be spotted before they are exhausted.

On Mar 16, 10:35*am, Nick Gardner wrote:
On 16/03/2013 08:37, Eskimo Will wrote:

Adam you may wish to consider fleecing it or using glass to warm up the
soil. Soil temperatures are very low at present. Mine are still just
3-4C at 30cm and lower at times near the surface. Not even the grass is
growing yet. Haven't sown a single seed so far (normally at least have
my parsnips in by now which will germinate at 5C). Will put some veg
seeds in a cloche next week and pray. Outside sowing will not start
until mid-April or even May at this rate and could be another very bad
year if we get a cloudy cool and wet summer again.

My 30 cm soil temperature overtook the 100 cm temperature on the 9th
reaching a maximum of 9.2°C, but since then a run of cold nights has
caused it to fall back.

Currently:
30 cm = 7.1°C
100 cm = 8.8°C.

A minimum air temperature of -3.6°C on the 14th making it easily the
coldest night of the winter/spring. I thought my nectarine tree was
going to cop it as it has started budding. Seems to be OK so I've got
away with it.

--
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amslhttp://www.ottervalley.co.uk

Onion sets in. Rhubarb looking good.
Just had a 5 min hail shower.
Turned briefly white.
Awesome!

Len
Wembury

I'm also investing in a big greenhouse which I reckon will
bear fruit (literally!) in the next few years.
Will

*Literally*, Will? I am enjoying imagining the sort of fruit
that a greenhouse would bear - glass floats, perhaps? Or
Christmas tree baubles? Or wine bottles? :-)

Anne

I hope the models are wrong! I'm going kayaking in Swaledale next
weekend and I've had enough of my fingers feeling like they are going
to fall off this year!

Simon

In article ,
Dawlish writes:
Will is ramping, as he always does, the possibility of the most
extreme snow conditions he can.
snip

There's considerable support from the Met Office:

"UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Mar 2013 to Saturday 30 Mar 2013:Many areas
fine on Thursday, though a few snow showers possible to the northeast.
Turning much more unsettled towards the southwest later Thursday, with
cloudy, wet and windy conditions then spreading slowly northeastwards on
Friday into central parts of the UK, whilst turning increasingly to
snow. These conditions continue northwards through the weekend, risk
then of significant snow over central and northern areas, though the far
northeast may remain brighter, with just occasional snow showers.
Generally cold with overnight frost, though temperatures perhaps
returning nearer normal in the south."

OK, they don't actually use the "b" word, but the set-up suggests that
any snow in northern parts next weekend would be accompanied by a strong
easterly or north-easterly.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde