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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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http://www.thelocal.se/47154/20130405/#.UWAi7ZNJO30
Lets have a nice Baltic Exchange and no gouging Interesting that sea ice records in the Baltic only started in the sixties which makes me think how accurate any arctic sea ice records are before satellites. Testimonials: Bjorn Tattersborg "I've never seen anything like it!" |
#2
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On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 08:15:58 -0700 (PDT), Lawrence13
wrote: http://www.thelocal.se/47154/20130405/#.UWAi7ZNJO30 Lets have a nice Baltic Exchange and no gouging Interesting that sea ice records in the Baltic only started in the sixties which makes me think how accurate any arctic sea ice records are before satellites. How would the fact that Baltic ice records only starting in the sixties have the remotest bearing on the accuracy of records from the Arctic? Sorry, I'm not following your logic here.... Testimonials: Bjorn Tattersborg "I've never seen anything like it!" Another testimonial (taken from the article): "It's kind of cool to see how the weather changes from year to year," Herlin added. -- Freddie Bayston Hill Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx for hourly reports |
#3
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On Saturday, 6 April 2013 20:05:09 UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 08:15:58 -0700 (PDT), Lawrence13 wrote: http://www.thelocal.se/47154/20130405/#.UWAi7ZNJO30 Lets have a nice Baltic Exchange and no gouging Interesting that sea ice records in the Baltic only started in the sixties which makes me think how accurate any arctic sea ice records are before satellites. How would the fact that Baltic ice records only starting in the sixties have the remotest bearing on the accuracy of records from the Arctic? Sorry, I'm not following your logic here.... Testimonials: Bjorn Tattersborg "I've never seen anything like it!" Another testimonial (taken from the article): "It's kind of cool to see how the weather changes from year to year," Herlin added. -- Freddie Bayston Hill Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx for hourly reports I would have thought it was obvious. Sweden and Finland are not stupid are they and if the record keeping there was quite scant before the sixties regardless of the importance of ice in the Baltic. I would also have though that if anything keeping tabs in that area would be a cinch compared to the sheer vastness and remoteness of the Arctic pre the satellite era. Basically the Baltic should be subject to more intense observations than the Arctic before the sixties. I hope I made that clear. |
#4
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On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 12:51:34 -0700 (PDT), Lawrence13
wrote: I would have thought it was obvious. Sweden and Finland are not stupid are = they and if the record keeping there was quite scant before the sixties reg= ardless of the importance of ice in the Baltic. I would also have though th= at if anything keeping tabs in that area would be a cinch compared to the s= heer vastness and remoteness of the Arctic pre the satellite era. Basically the Baltic should be subject to more intense observations than th= e Arctic before the sixties. I hope I made that clear. Ah ok fair enough. So you meant records of ice extent derived from individual records, rather than the accuracy of the individual arctic observations themselves. That wasn't especially clear to me. -- Freddie Bayston Hill Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx for hourly reports |
#5
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In article ,
Lawrence13 writes: http://www.thelocal.se/47154/20130405/#.UWAi7ZNJO30 Interesting article. Lets have a nice Baltic Exchange and no gouging Interesting that sea ice records in the Baltic only started in the sixties I think that's a bit like the Met Office's pretence that UK temperature records only began in 1910. The 1960s may be when official records of Baltic sea ice began, but I think we have at least rough ideas of the amount of ice going back hundreds of years. After all there have been a lot of ships using the Baltic for a very long time. I've just had a look in my copy of HH Lamb's "Climate, History and the Modern World" (though it's now a little out of date, being published in 1982, it's a fascinating read for anyone with an interest in climate history). On p220 I found: "... the two winters with least Baltic ice as shown by the over four hundred years long record of ice closing the port of Riga occurred in 1651-2 and 1652-3; the winter of 1658-9 produced the opposite extreme - much as the great Baltic ice winters of 1962-3 and 1965-6 occurred only a few years before the ice-free winter of 1974-5." which makes me think how accurate any arctic sea ice records are before satellites. Certainly far less accurate and for nowhere near as long as for the Baltic, simply because far less shipping ventures there (with the exception of a few areas such as the journey around the top of Scandinavia to Archangel). -- John Hall "Madam, you have between your legs an instrument capable of giving pleasure to thousands and all you can do is scratch it." Sir Thomas Beecham (1879-1961) to a lady cellist |
#6
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On Saturday, 6 April 2013 20:42:23 UTC+1, John Hall wrote:
In article , Lawrence13 writes: http://www.thelocal.se/47154/20130405/#.UWAi7ZNJO30 Interesting article. Lets have a nice Baltic Exchange and no gouging Interesting that sea ice records in the Baltic only started in the sixties I think that's a bit like the Met Office's pretence that UK temperature records only began in 1910. The 1960s may be when official records of Baltic sea ice began, but I think we have at least rough ideas of the amount of ice going back hundreds of years. After all there have been a lot of ships using the Baltic for a very long time. I've just had a look in my copy of HH Lamb's "Climate, History and the Modern World" (though it's now a little out of date, being published in 1982, it's a fascinating read for anyone with an interest in climate history). On p220 I found: "... the two winters with least Baltic ice as shown by the over four hundred years long record of ice closing the port of Riga occurred in 1651-2 and 1652-3; the winter of 1658-9 produced the opposite extreme - much as the great Baltic ice winters of 1962-3 and 1965-6 occurred only a few years before the ice-free winter of 1974-5." which makes me think how accurate any arctic sea ice records are before satellites. Certainly far less accurate and for nowhere near as long as for the Baltic, simply because far less shipping ventures there (with the exception of a few areas such as the journey around the top of Scandinavia to Archangel). -- John Hall "Madam, you have between your legs an instrument capable of giving pleasure to thousands and all you can do is scratch it." Sir Thomas Beecham (1879-1961) to a lady cellist Thanks John that is the point I was trying to make. The Baltic was very important for with the Hanseatic League depending upon ice free shipping. So if those records are scant for such a busy area how do we know the extent of the Arctic ice through the centuries . That would therefore follow that we don't have any idea if the Arctic ice had on occasions dropped to lower levels than 2007. Alastair take note. |
#7
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In article ,
Lawrence13 writes: The Baltic was very important for with the Hanseatic League depending upon ice free shipping. So if those records are scant for such a busy area how do we know the extent of the Arctic ice through the centuries . That would therefore follow that we don't have any idea if the Arctic ice had on occasions dropped to lower levels than 2007. I suppose we have a little idea about Arctic ice in the past from attempts to find the NW and NE passages, but of course those attempts would all have been made in late summer when the ice would be likely to be close to its minimum from the year. There would also be some data for the period 1893-1902 from Nansen's voyages in the Fram: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fram There's also some interesting stuff on Wikipedia regarding expeditions to and settlements in Greenland from Denmark between 1500 and 1814: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenla...0.E2.80.931814 But it's clear that the ice data must be very patchy, both in terms of where and when, and almost all descriptive in nature rather than measured. And of course the further you go back the less data there is. It seems possible to me that at the peak of the Medieval Warm Period, when there were Viking settlements in coastal areas of southern Greenland, there might have been less ice in the Arctic than now. Of course after the MWP it didn't carry on getting warmer but got colder again (finishing off those Viking settlements), whereas those of us that believe that long-term AGW is underway because of increasing CO2 can't see that happening this time. -- John Hall "Madam, you have between your legs an instrument capable of giving pleasure to thousands and all you can do is scratch it." Sir Thomas Beecham (1879-1961) to a lady cellist |
#8
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On 06/04/13 21:34, John Hall wrote:
In , writes: The Baltic was very important for with the Hanseatic League depending upon ice free shipping. So if those records are scant for such a busy area how do we know the extent of the Arctic ice through the centuries . That would therefore follow that we don't have any idea if the Arctic ice had on occasions dropped to lower levels than 2007. I suppose we have a little idea about Arctic ice in the past from attempts to find the NW and NE passages, but of course those attempts would all have been made in late summer when the ice would be likely to be close to its minimum from the year. There would also be some data for the period 1893-1902 from Nansen's voyages in the Fram: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fram There's also some interesting stuff on Wikipedia regarding expeditions to and settlements in Greenland from Denmark between 1500 and 1814: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenla...0.E2.80.931814 But it's clear that the ice data must be very patchy, both in terms of where and when, and almost all descriptive in nature rather than measured. And of course the further you go back the less data there is. It seems possible to me that at the peak of the Medieval Warm Period, when there were Viking settlements in coastal areas of southern Greenland, there might have been less ice in the Arctic than now. Of course after the MWP it didn't carry on getting warmer but got colder again (finishing off those Viking settlements), whereas those of us that believe that long-term AGW is underway because of increasing CO2 can't see that happening this time. Probably worth noting that the MWP was not a global phenomenon. http://www.skepticalscience.com/medi...arm-period.htm |
#9
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On Saturday, 6 April 2013 23:22:10 UTC+1, Adam Lea wrote:
On 06/04/13 21:34, John Hall wrote: In , writes: The Baltic was very important for with the Hanseatic League depending upon ice free shipping. So if those records are scant for such a busy area how do we know the extent of the Arctic ice through the centuries . That would therefore follow that we don't have any idea if the Arctic ice had on occasions dropped to lower levels than 2007. I suppose we have a little idea about Arctic ice in the past from attempts to find the NW and NE passages, but of course those attempts would all have been made in late summer when the ice would be likely to be close to its minimum from the year. There would also be some data for the period 1893-1902 from Nansen's voyages in the Fram: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fram There's also some interesting stuff on Wikipedia regarding expeditions to and settlements in Greenland from Denmark between 1500 and 1814: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenla...0.E2.80.931814 But it's clear that the ice data must be very patchy, both in terms of where and when, and almost all descriptive in nature rather than measured. And of course the further you go back the less data there is. It seems possible to me that at the peak of the Medieval Warm Period, when there were Viking settlements in coastal areas of southern Greenland, there might have been less ice in the Arctic than now. Of course after the MWP it didn't carry on getting warmer but got colder again (finishing off those Viking settlements), whereas those of us that believe that long-term AGW is underway because of increasing CO2 can't see that happening this time. Probably worth noting that the MWP was not a global phenomenon. http://www.skepticalscience.com/medi...arm-period.htm Oh really, what ********. How do you know that. The so called scientist said in 2000 that snow was a thing of the past and you are telling us that the MWP was local!!!! Good grief, how can you make such statements linking a website as if gospe, full of liars and fabricators of several hockey sticks. Keep those premiums rising Adam |
#10
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In article ,
Adam Lea writes: Probably worth noting that the MWP was not a global phenomenon. Good point. http://www.skepticalscience.com/medi...arm-period.htm Which makes one wonder if that website's putting down to increased solar activity and less vulcanism is correct, as you'd expect at least the first - and possibly the second - to have a global rather than a regional impact. The suggestion mentioned that it was linked to a variation in ocean currents might be closer to the mark - and I suppose that could have been triggered by a change in solar activity or vulcanism. -- John Hall "Madam, you have between your legs an instrument capable of giving pleasure to thousands and all you can do is scratch it." Sir Thomas Beecham (1879-1961) to a lady cellist |
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