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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0607z, 26/09/03. ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif A slack low lies to the SW of the UK, bringing southerlies for England and Wales, with easterlies for Northern Ireland and Scotland. The low sinks southwards and deepens at T+144, bringing easterlies across England and Wales. The rest of the UK lies under aridge, with variable winds. The ridge persists over much of the UK at T+168, with ESE'lies for southernmost areas and westerlies for the far north of Scotland. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html England and Wales lie under low pressure while Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under easterlies and NE'lies respectively. The low deepens over England at T+144, with NE'lies and NNE'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif Southerlies and easterlies cover the UK, with low pressure to the SW. There's little change at T+120, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from +4C to +5C over the UK. The low deepens to the west of Brest at T+144, with a secondary low over the southern North Sea. ENE'lies cover most of the UK as a result. By T+168 the low becomes elongated, covering England and Wales. This bring NNE'lies over Scotland and Northern Ireland. NNW'lies cover the UK on day 8 as the low is absorbed by a deeper low to the east of Iceland. The NNW'lies continue on day 9, but by day 10 the winds become NNE'lies as a ridge topples SE'wards towards Scotland. GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif As with the other runs, a low lies to the SW, with southerlies and easterlies for the UK. SE'lies move over England and Wales at T+120, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from +3C over NW Scotland to +5C over southern England. By T+144 easterlies cover much of the UK, with low pressure to the south. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html The Japanese run shows a trough over the UK, with light winds for all. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over NW Scotland to +4C over much of England. By T+144 the trough deepens into a low over the English Channel, with easterlies and NE'lies over the UK as a result. The NE'lies continue at T+168 as the low sinks southwards. Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA): http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html The T+108 chart shows two runs pointing to a low to the SW or WSW, with the other run having a weak ridge there instead. In summary, today's runs generally show southerlies, SE'lies and easterlies over the UK for Tuesday, with a low to the south or SW. Beyond that, the models diverge, with outcomes as varied as a ridge (ECM) to low pressure over the UK (GFS). As ever, more runs are needed. |
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