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Old September 26th 03, 07:07 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (26/09/03)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0607z, 26/09/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
A slack low lies to the SW of the UK, bringing southerlies for England and
Wales, with easterlies for Northern Ireland and Scotland. The low sinks
southwards and deepens at T+144, bringing easterlies across England and
Wales. The rest of the UK lies under aridge, with variable winds. The ridge
persists over much of the UK at T+168, with ESE'lies for southernmost areas
and westerlies for the far north of Scotland.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
England and Wales lie under low pressure while Scotland and Northern Ireland
lie under easterlies and NE'lies respectively. The low deepens over England
at T+144, with NE'lies and NNE'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
Southerlies and easterlies cover the UK, with low pressure to the SW.
There's little change at T+120, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from +4C to
+5C over the UK. The low deepens to the west of Brest at T+144, with a
secondary low over the southern North Sea. ENE'lies cover most of the UK as
a result. By T+168 the low becomes elongated, covering England and Wales.
This bring NNE'lies over Scotland and Northern Ireland. NNW'lies cover the
UK on day 8 as the low is absorbed by a deeper low to the east of Iceland.
The NNW'lies continue on day 9, but by day 10 the winds become NNE'lies as a
ridge topples SE'wards towards Scotland.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
As with the other runs, a low lies to the SW, with southerlies and
easterlies for the UK. SE'lies move over England and Wales at T+120, with
850hPa temperatures ranging from +3C over NW Scotland to +5C over southern
England. By T+144 easterlies cover much of the UK, with low pressure to the
south.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows a trough over the UK, with light winds for all.
850hPa temperatures range from -1C over NW Scotland to +4C over much of
England. By T+144 the trough deepens into a low over the English Channel,
with easterlies and NE'lies over the UK as a result. The NE'lies continue at
T+168 as the low sinks southwards.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The T+108 chart shows two runs pointing to a low to the SW or WSW, with the
other run having a weak ridge there instead.

In summary, today's runs generally show southerlies, SE'lies and easterlies
over the UK for Tuesday, with a low to the south or SW. Beyond that, the
models diverge, with outcomes as varied as a ridge (ECM) to low pressure
over the UK (GFS). As ever, more runs are needed.



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